Observation on San Jose SN registrations...

Discussion in 'Parent's Corner' started by SevenDad, May 8, 2015.

  1. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2013
    Messages:
    537
    Likes Received:
    47
    I honestly hadn't thought that much about the impact of PBQ, but was struck by something I saw in the registrations for SN over the past few days.

    Daughter competes in WE, so those are really the only events I'm looking at registration for. Currently, the number of fencers signed up for Y14 is HIGHER than the number signed up for Cadet...and close to the number signed up for Juniors.

    Last year, Y14 WE had 126 entries, Cadet had 158, and Junior had 227.

    At least one top 20 Y14 told me that they are not attending SN due to distance/cost...will be interesting to see what the final effect of a combination of distance/cost and PBQ is on final registration numbers. I'm in the "the more the merrier" camp myself, so am a bit frowny about it all.

    I know there's a whole other thread on Kris Ekeren's recent blog post that touches on PBQ, but I didn't want the observation that registrations are down to get caught up in a larger discussion.

    Any other Y14/Cadet/Junior parents seeing similar trend your kid's weapon/gender class?
     
  2. brianz

    brianz Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    0
    We were just talking about this. For example, Y14ME has more registrants than DIV1!

    One of our coaches speculates this is all caused by the new qualification rules which confused a lot of fencers. I personally feel that they are unnecessarily complicated (especially for the youth circuit) and don't help promoting the sports at all. We have kids at the club missed out qualification opportunities because they didn't understand the rules until it was too late. Shame on USFA.
     
  3. Allen Evans

    Allen Evans Podium

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2003
    Messages:
    4,838
    Likes Received:
    877
    Isn't this usually the case for Summer Nationals? (I suppose I could go back and check, but...)

    I have a number of students not going to SN this year in the Y14 - Junior age group, primarily because of timing and cost.
     
  4. oiuyt

    oiuyt Podium

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2000
    Messages:
    10,278
    Likes Received:
    1,007
    2014 Y14 ME National Championships 190 competitors.
    2014 D1ME July NAC 331 competitors.

    B
     
  5. Allen Evans

    Allen Evans Podium

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2003
    Messages:
    4,838
    Likes Received:
    877
    Of course, you're right. I was thinking of Div I Championship numbers.

    A
     
  6. slam

    slam Made the Cut

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    4

    Y14 qualification paths are the same as last year, so the primary factor affecting registrations should be the distance/cost factors. However, there could be a secondary effect from the reduced number of fencers in Cadet and Junior events. I'd think that some Y14 fencers may not bother to go for just their Y14 event but would go if they could also fence a Cadet (and possibly a Junior) event. So, if that fencer didn't qualify for Cadets (which they could have automatically fenced last year), they might decide to stay home now.

    My son fences saber so I'm primarily focused on those events. The Cadet, Junior and Div I entries for those seem to be running a lot lower than last year as you are seeing with Epee.
     
  7. slam

    slam Made the Cut

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    4
    Confusion may be an issue. I am seeing some people from our club register for events that I know they aren't qualified for. Some may not register for events that they actually are qualified for. The bigger factor, of course, is that there are now qualification paths for a number of events which previously didn't have them. That is significantly reducing the number of eligible fencers.
     
  8. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2013
    Messages:
    537
    Likes Received:
    47
    @slam: It's not the Y14 numbers that are surprising to me (though the recent "youth" NAC Y14WE had over 100 entries...that's the most I'd ever seen at a non-SN event). It's that the Cadet and Junior event numbers are so low.

    It strikes me as strange that the first Cadet and Junior events of the new season are looking to be smaller than the 2016 JOs will most likely be. Since the JOs are the "national championships" of the Cadet/Junior categories, shouldn't that be the smaller event — like a "best of the best"/all-star thing?

    With a week until the deadline for SN registration, there are 54 entries in CWE. If the numbers stayed that way, the chances of someone making the 32 (and earning points) are pretty good (relative to last year). Of course, with fewer unrated/"unknown" fencers in the mix...pools are going to less diluted and those unlucky enough to have a T64 DE will probably face a harder challenge than they might have with a larger field of entrants.
     
  9. slam

    slam Made the Cut

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    236
    Likes Received:
    4
    I might not have made myself clear. I view the factors I cited affecting the Y14 size as relatively small, but real. The greater difficulty in qualifying for Div 1, Juniors and Cadets is a MUCH bigger factor and accounts for the effect that you observed. It's not at all surprising to me that those events are so much smaller than last year and even than JOs given the qualification paths.

    It may be a little easier for a fencer to obtain points if a field is under 80 because a higher percentage of fencers earn points. However, those fields will still be the top of the field and, as you put it, "less diluted". One still has to finish in the top 32 and presumably at least the top 32 fencers still qualified.
     
  10. ReadyFence

    ReadyFence Podium

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2013
    Messages:
    1,703
    Likes Received:
    173
    Saber does look a bit light but I expect a bunch of late sign-ups.
     
  11. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2013
    Messages:
    537
    Likes Received:
    47
    Two days from registration deadline and here are the WE numbers:

    Y14: 108 (126 in 2014)
    Cadet: 70 (158 in 2014)
    Junior: 114 (227 in 2014)

    Y14: 86% of 2014 numbers
    Cadet: 44% of 2014 numbers
    Junior: 50% of 2014 numbers

    So even with opening up the qualification paths for Cadet and Junior via the "make the cut at JOs" route, the events (particularly Cadet) are looking pretty small. One issue I have with this , which I may have tried to make upstream, is...if JOs are the "Championships" of Cadet/Junior and the July Challenge is the first event of the new season, shouldn't the FIRST event be the biggest one and JOs be the smallest (For reference, at the 2015 JOs, CWE had 171 competitors and JWE had 187)? Shouldn't the various Fall NACs act as a "funnel" of sorts for JOs?
     
  12. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2013
    Messages:
    537
    Likes Received:
    47
    So, after "regular fee" deadline, the final numbers for Y14-Junior WE are:

    Y14: 127 (101% of 2014 numbers)
    CWE: 86 (54% of 2014 numbers)
    JWE: 146 (64% of 2014 numbers)

    I know that AncientEpee is covering similar ground on another, newer thread in the main section, but I figured I'd add this coda to this thread. I do see a few people "registered" for some events that I'm fairly certain are not qualified (just knowing about where they stand on various point lists) to participate in....so I think slam's point about confusion in post#7 above is accurate.

    I was happy to see so many last-minute (or at least, last day) registrants for all three of these events.
     

Share This Page