2018 NCAA National Championship Qualifiers...

Discussion in 'Fencing Discussion' started by SevenDad, Mar 12, 2018.

  1. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

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  2. jdude97

    jdude97 Podium

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    The automatic qualifiers (as opposed to the at-large qualifiers) are normally known the day of the qualifier. They are only officially withheld until Tuesday for suspense/media purposes a la Selection Sunday for college basketball. The formula is very simple -- 60% regionals, 40% regular season. The factors afaik are all known to the coaches, bout committee, and even fans (except not this year since as mentioned in another thread the FSFs posted as 2017-18 are wrong). My guesses as to why schools typically wait to announce includes:
    - wanting to avoid embarrassment if someone they thought qualified didn't due to a calculation error
    - not wanting to leave out any at-large qualifiers
    - following the directive of the NCAA so as not to undercut their big announcement
    - giving themselves time to pick their qualifiers if they have more than 2 qualified in a single weapon
     
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  3. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

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    Your bullet points 1 and 3 would give me pause enough to wait until the "official" date to say anything...
     
  4. Ancientepee

    Ancientepee Podium

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    If you look at the file name of those lists of FSFs that were used for the 2017 NCAAs, you'll note that it contains the date of November 8, 2017, or about eight months after the 2017 NCAA Regionals were held. So those files were not available to anyone even at the time of the Championships themselves. The files were probably created long after the fact for archival purposes. Their being stored in the folder that they were found in was probably accidental rather than for the purpose of making this info public.

    I'm not sure if the FSFs used for any of the previous Regionals have ever been released. If you look at the "Seeding" tab for the first round of the Regionals, you'll see that the names are just listed in seeding order with no mention of the FSFs that were used to determine this even though that could have been done. The bout committees are probably given just a list of the fencers and told to seed them in a particular order. So, while the coaches have access to the FSFs and the guy(s) who compute the final point totals know the FSFs, I'm not sure if anyone on the bout committee knows the numbers and the fans certainly don't.

    As I recall, at the end of the Regionals in each weapon, the coaches (and only the coaches) are shown the fencer's names in order by their point totals. If a school has only one or two qualifiers in a weapon, then those are the fencers that they can send. In cases where the school has more than two who meet the qualification standards, then you have to wait until the coach decides who to send.

    The candidates for the At-Large spots are not known until the end of the last (i.e., NE) Regionals since it consists of the fencers with the highest FSFs nationwide who did NOT manage to qualify through the four Regionals. That won't be known until they cross off the NE regional qualifiers from the nationwide FSF ranking.

    So UPenn may not have more than two qualifiers in any weapon or already know who they'll designate and can always make a separate announcement if they do get at-large spot(s). Some schools are more cautious.
     
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  5. dsapery

    dsapery DE Bracket

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    ^^^ Correct on all points.
     
  6. Lefty Belgian

    Lefty Belgian DE Bracket

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    While there is some uncertainty with regard to coaches' picks among multiple qualifiers at one school/weapon/gender/region, I believe one can make a very reasonable projection as to the ultimate NCAA Championships qualifiers. After all, that's what a lot of us do on this site, e.g., see potential 2018-2019 NAC sites.

    If I am correct in my reading of NCAA literature, then the filtering order is: (i) Regional winners are auto-qualified; (ii) The top number equal to the allocation for the particular region/gender/weapon, all qualify, and (iii) Fencers in the top number in excess of 2 from the same school are skipped, falling down to the next eligible fencer.

    The fencers-at-large are the next eligible fencers on the FSF list. By eligible I mean not from a school that already has 2 fencers in that gender/weapon. Although the FSF is only known to coaches at this point, I believe you can determine the FSF seeding, sans specific numbers, by referring to the seeding at each event. So going back to the initial seeding before pools, should provide the information.

    As a random example, look at WF in the Northeast Region:

    - Blow as the winner auto-qualifies
    - Either Binder or Crum or Schreiber (all from Columbia) qualify as Columbia's 2nd fencer
    - Zhou (Yale), Ding (Cornell), Viqueira (Cornell), and Carminucci (Brandeis) qualify within the top 8 (the allocation for WF in the NE)
    - Pham (Yale) qualifies because of skipping the 2 'extra' Columbia fencers
    - Mackenzie (Harvard) qualifies because, in addition to skipping 2 Columbia fencers, a 3rd Yale fencer (Zhao) is also skipped

    Looking to the fencer-at-large, the first eligible fencers, filtering out fencers from school who have already qualified the maximum 2, are Semel and Yang, both from Harvard. Presumably one of them will get a berth. The final slot would then fall to Luong (NYU).

    How did I do?
     
  7. jdude97

    jdude97 Podium

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    The winner auto qualifies but the coach can still replace them with another teammate who qualified. There was an example of this last season.
     
  8. SevenDad

    SevenDad DE Bracket

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    Thanks for the explanations, all.

    Follow-up question....for teams that qualify a fencer through an "at large" bid, does the coach also get to choose who goes or must it go to fencer who qualified? I guess the fencer could always decline due to "injury"....but in this case, does the at large bid go to next fencer on list regardless of what school they attend or is the bid retained by the school?
     
  9. Ancientepee

    Ancientepee Podium

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    At this stage, people want to know who ACTUALLY qualified and not who is projected might qualify.

    It's two at-large qualifiers total (i.e., nation-wide), not two per region.
     
  10. Lefty Belgian

    Lefty Belgian DE Bracket

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    Of course. Just having some fun. ACTUALLY is for the patient ones. Have not met many of those on this thread...lol.

    Really? Are the 2 nation wide in each weapon? If so, then my projections on that go out the window. You actually do need the FSF numbers to calculate. Thanks for the info!
     
  11. dsapery

    dsapery DE Bracket

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    The regional winner is only auto-qualified if their school doesn't have choices. So in the example you've given with Columbia WF, Blow is not an automatic since her school is 2-capped and would have qualified more.

    I've only ever seen the "regional winners are auto-qualified" rule come into play in West region.
     
  12. dsapery

    dsapery DE Bracket

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    Correct.

    Determining the at larges is a 2-step process, both of which require the FSF. The first part uses the NQR, which is the calculated number that combines FSF (40%) and regional placement (60%). The second part uses only the FSF.

    Each region nominates 2 athletes to be At Large Candidates. You look at who the qualifiers would have been if the region had 2 more slots. So if the region gets 7 qualifiers in the weapon, you look at who would have been #8 and #9 using the NQR. There is a rare case in which you do it slightly differently, but this is the rule of thumb.

    Then with 2 from each region, there are 8 ATLCs nominated. You now compare them using their respective FSFs. The top 2 are the at larges.
     
  13. Ancientepee

    Ancientepee Podium

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    So if the school already has one qualifier, the at-large candidate could be their second qualifier but if the school already has two qualifiers, you keep going down the list until you find a fencer from a school that does not already have two qualifiers? What's the status of the fencers who are skipped? Can the coach name them in place of one of the school's regular qualifiers?

    I take it that the only purpose of the first step is so that the coach can say that the school had an at-large candidate who wasn't selected.
     
  14. Ancientepee

    Ancientepee Podium

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    The final, official list of qualifiers will be posted on the NCAA Fencing web page as a news release?
    https://www.ncaa.com/sports/fencing
    Last year it was posted before noon (ET) but I seem to recall waiting until the evening on other years.
     
  15. dsapery

    dsapery DE Bracket

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    Correct.
    It depends on whether the athlete is above or below "the line" which is drawn below the last direct qualifier. So, for example, if the NQR orders athletes like so, and the region gets 4 qualifiers:

    OSU1 - QUAL
    OSU2 - QUAL
    OSU3 - Institutional Alternate
    ND1 - QUAL
    ND2 - QUAL ("the line" is drawn below this athlete)
    ND3 - Regional Alternate
    LAWR - At Large Candidate
    UDM - At Large Candidate

    In this instance, OSU can choose which 2 to send. ND cannot, and the regional alternate can only be substituted post-selection in the case of a withdrawal that drops the region below its allocation of 4. Since ND is already 2-capped, ND3 cannot be an ATLC.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2018
  16. dsapery

    dsapery DE Bracket

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    The rare case I mentioned would something like be the following:

    OSU1 - QUAL
    LAWR - QUAL
    ND1 - QUAL
    ND2 - QUAL ("the line" is drawn below this athlete)
    ND3 - Regional Alternate
    OSU2 - Possible At Large Candidate
    OSU3 - Possible At Large Candidate
    UDM - At Large Candidate

    In this case, since OSU already has 1 direct qualifier, they cannot submit both OSU2 and OSU3 as at large candidates. Whichever one has the higher FSF will be submitted along with UDM.
     
  17. jdude97

    jdude97 Podium

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    About 5 years ago before the winner auto qualified it came into play in the northeast region.
     
  18. CBS

    CBS Rookie

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  19. dsapery

    dsapery DE Bracket

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    In which weapon? I have the selections through 2011 and don't see this situation.
     
  20. Ancientepee

    Ancientepee Podium

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    Here's my summary by school sorted by number of qualifiers and the alpha by school. Three schools have the max of 12. Wayne State has kept its streak alive of being the only school to participate in every one of the NCAA Fencing Championships since the very first one in 1941.
     

    Attached Files:

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