Dubya Bush

[Marcos]

Are you guys going to get rid next election?

[pkt]

From all indications, it appears that Dubya MAY lose the next election to former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...se/deanhoward/

But what do I know, I'm just a Canadian. I just read about the stuff.

Let's hear about it, my American friends.

PK

[Marcos]

to be honest, I am not against the US supremo for things like Iraq, Afghanistan, etc - views on the war are seperate to views on Dubya

What has got my goat at the moment is the little known announcement that the US has reversed Clinton's proclamation that Carbon Dioxide is a pollutant

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1219574.stm

Greenhouse effect anyone??

[zeidolon]

Where did he reverse anything?

"He is now seeking justification for his change of policy on technical grounds, noting that the 1970 Clean Air Act does not class carbon dioxide as a pollutant. "

The news article mentions that he reneged on a campaign promise, but does not mention overturning anything that Clinton proclaimed...

Did I miss something, or were you also referring to an additional news source?

[pkt]

Marcos,

At least you're not immediately north of the US like us in Canada are.

Dubya refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, so his deciding "not to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power stations." is very much in line with his reasoning.

Dubya will do many things to help his wealthy friends so they can help out with is re-election campaign. the poor sods like you and I do not count.

At the rate he's going, he may actually hang himself with all these policies.

Was there a heat wave in Dublin lately?
Too bad there wasn't one in the States to wake up some decision-makers to the reality of global warming.
Here in BC, I'm sure you've heard about the forests burning up as well as the drought. [I watch the Beeb's World News...with Mishal what's-her-last-name -Housein?]

PK

[Peach]

We didn't actually elect him in the first place, if you're talking popular vote.

[Inquartata]

Unless there's another big terrorist attack, or the economy plummets again, I'd say not a chance. Power of the incumbency, power of fundraising, power of a united party vs. the gaggle of Democrats savaging each other before their primary, vs. the McGovern factor, vs.....

[pkt]

Counter points:
The weight of the deficit will be approx. USD1,000 for every man, woman and child.
The lack of a possible end in sight for the misadventure in Iraq.
The almost daily deaths of American boys dying in Iraq.
The split of the religious right that support the Republicans since Reagan.
The doldrum the US economy is in.
...

PK

[zeidolon]

Without stepping into the mire of a political frenzy here, I would like to point out that the state of the economy is largely not affected by Bush or his decisions.

1) Alan Greenspan is major influence
2) Dot.com crash major influence
3) "Fear and Uncertainty" (especially with Sept 11, Afghanistan, Iraq, power problems, etc.) is major influence.

Granted, Presidential policies do have an effect, but generally speaking (and historically) the actions of a President during his term usually have a measurable impact on the term of the next President, not an immediate affect...unless of course you consider short term impacts on the stock market from a particular policy announcement or something similar, but these usually average out over time (sometimes as quickly as a few days).

I should also point out that Government spending doesn't affect the economy as much as Consumer spending (or lack thereof) does. Governmental budget deficiets or surplus doesn't affect the economy much either (IMHO) unless you consider the public perception (i.e. "deficit is bad, therefore I will decrease my spending and save"...this mindset affects consumer spending, and thus causes a decline in the overall economy).

Of course, I could be wrong, Im not an economist. : P

Robert

[veeco]

I'd be interested to hear the views of Americans on the current state of the economy in the US. Today's newspaper "Le Figaro", one of the leading French newspaper has its first page saying "The American economy is improving, should we believe in it?". What do you think about this?

They are basically saying that industrial activity is growing again, after being down for 4 months. Apparently MSDW is forecasting 4.2% growth for the next year, even though Greenspan and Bush are "cautionarily optimistic" about growth going back up again.

[Soldier]

Originally posted by pkt
From all indications, it appears that Dubya MAY lose the next election to former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...se/deanhoward/

But what do I know, I'm just a Canadian. I just read about the stuff.

Let's hear about it, my American friends.

PK

NO!! NO, NO, NO, NO!!

If there's one thing I can't stand, it's everybody trying to guess the election, starting sometimes years beforehand. None of this crap - just say who you'd vote for, and wait for time to tell!!

[veeco]

Well, but he can't vote for anyone in this election, he's Canadian ;-).

Besides, it's more fun to make predictions than just wait and hold your breath until the results are coming out. That's why some people here like to make "bets" on who's going to win world championships, or whatever. Everyone has an opinion on who should win, for whatever reasons, and they say what their reasons are.

[Soldier]

Why would you hold your breath? Figure out who to vote for, then keep half an eye on the news for anything drastic he (or his opponent, and I say "he" because we've yet to see any female candidates) decides to do, then get on with your life until it comes time to vote. And in this stage, when the Democrats don't even have an actual candidate yet, why bother?

[veeco]

Because it's interesting to hear other's opinions and point of views?

Actually, in the link that PKT posted, there is a sheet about at least one Democrat female contender, Carol Moseley Braun. If we had not talked about this election I would not have known this, so that would seem to be at least one thing in favor of doing it!

It may be premature to give a clear definitive winner so far, sure, but there's nothing bad about having an opinion on who has the best chances...

[Soldier]

"Contender", not yet candidate. And listening to their ideas is one things; speculating who will win when we don't even know who will run bugs the hell out of me. But, that's just me. Feel free to waste your time on it if you wish.

[MHS Fencer]

Okay, we've seen female candidates (although, to be honest, I don't know if Mosley-Braun has officially declared for the Democratic nomination) - those of us who have a finger on the pulse of what's going on can make reasonable guesses as to what's going to happen. I think we can knock off Dubya (err, electorally speaking, I mean) and that Dean will do that. He reached Kerry's voter base first, undermining Kerry somewhat for the nomination, so I think Dean will get it, although, it'll be interesting to see what'll happen with Gepharts voter base (mainly union, etc.), and whether that'll end up with Dean or Kerry. IMHO those are the only two Democrat who stand a chance (also the only two I'd vote for). Without another wagging of the dog to blind us to the economy's troubles (like Iraq) Dubya's gone.

[Marcos]

I'm looking forward to when there is a hispanic candidate

[jeff]

Maybe Bustamonte will become governor in California if Governor Davis is recalled. There are Hispanic governors and congressmen (don't know about congresswomen) from other states, but having that happen in California would be big.

[Inquartata]

Originally posted by pkt
Counter points:
The weight of the deficit will be approx. USD1,000 for every man, woman and child.
The lack of a possible end in sight for the misadventure in Iraq.
The almost daily deaths of American boys dying in Iraq.
The split of the religious right that support the Republicans since Reagan.
The doldrum the US economy is in.
...

PK

Counterpoints:

The vast majority of voters do not care about the deficit, even if they know what it is. They care more about jobs...and the economy, by all indications, is beginning to improve. Just in time for the election.

Possibly...unless something else comes up to knock Iraq off the evening news, the way Iraq knocked Afghanistan off.

So far, there have been almost as many deaths among illegal immigrants crossing the Arizona deserts this year alone. Deaths in Vietnam were what, 50,000? At the present rate, maybe we'll have 500 deaths by Election Day. And that's including accidents, which occur even on US bases in peacetime. And that number will rouse a wave of indignancy and prompt people to vote Democratic? Ah, Hope...

Yes, the Republicans are going to "split". And the Democrats are alll going to join together, swallow their egos and sing Kumbaya. Ho ho ho!

Whatever "doldrum" the economy may be in NOW, it probably will not be there in a year and a half, unless there is some exogenous shock like 9-11 or something. By all indications, things are on the upswing. Prosperity always bodes ill for the party on the outs---just as Bill Clinton...

[Inquartata]

Zeidolon, you may not be an economist, but you seem to be able to think clearly, at least.

I AM an economist, at least by schooling, and you are spot on.

I often think that every high school student ought to get a macroecon course or two---and not the "how to balance your checkbook" stuff that passes for econ these days, either. It would make for much better citizens, if nothing else. And better thinkers, as well, I daresay.

But then, I may not be objective on this one...


MHS: I think it had better be Dean---out of the last 45 or so Senators who have run for President not one has been successful. Governors are the way to go these days. I think perhaps it's that collegiality thing: legislators as Presidents tend to think of themselves as primus inter pares; governors have that chief executive experience.

Also, face it, appearances count in our shallow media-dominated society, and neither Gephardt nor Kerry are very prepossessing to look at, let alone Braun or Sharpton. I like Lieberman myself, but I think there's still a subterranean reservoir of antisemitism around which make his election doubtful.

Of course, Dean has problems, too. For a Democrat he was a pretty conservative governor; now he's billing himself as a
fire-breathing radical left Democrat? ( Or at least, as much of one as the Party has these days. )

Maybe your best hope would be Wesley Clark, if he decides to run. But it's getting sort of late to get in...