Predictions revisited

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!

Some time ago, there was a thread named "Place your bets" or something similar, in which posters stated their predictions on how the Iraq war would go. Now that several of the predictions are possible to check, why not go back and brag/point fingers?
;-)

One of mine was that USA would get in a position where its stated wishes would be actively counteracted in fora where it is not able to/willing to force its wish though raw power. FIE would be a good example of this kind of fora.

[There is a whole lot decidedly non-fencing stuff below. You have been warned.]

It seems like something of the sort has happened now. In Europe, we have a big TV happening called "Eurovision Song Contest" which is an European Championship in cheesy pop songs. It has been going on since the 50ies (IIRC), and England has been one of the most sucessful countries, along with Ireland and Luxembourg.

The format is like this: Each country has a national try-out song competition, in which a pop singer/group is voted the best and is sent to the big thing later that year. Previously the votes were tallied from focus groups culled from people working in music, but now it is a televote (in almost all countries) which has changed the results to quite a large degree. In the European Championship, all the national winners present their song once, and the the voting begins. It was previously a focus-group thing, but has not been changed to televote in this leg also. The televoters of each country can of course not vote for their own country, and each televoter gets to state his choice of best song. The entry that gets the most votes in one country gets 12 points, the next best 10, then 8, 7, and so on to 1. Each country gets to allot the same number of points, no matter how large it is. The points from each country are then added up for each song, and most points win.

Previously there was a rule that the countries must sing in their own language, but this has been abolished - so now almost all sing in English (exceptions being the language-proud French and Israeli). This rule helped the English and Irish, since so many from othe countries could understand what they sung - thus the change. The change from focus groups to televote has benefited countries with large groups of emigrants to other countries, most noticeably Turkey. Generally, most countries tend to give high points to their friendly neighbors - Greece and Cyprus *always* give 12 points to each other. Us Scandinavians and balts also engage in a bit of mutual back-scratching.

(Imagine a US presidential election in which only the governors gould take part, and all governors *had* to take part. Furthermore, the people in all states would have the same say, Texas and Rhode Island being equal, and that peolpe would not be allowed to vote for their own governor. Wonder who would win that one.)

In this year´s competition, Great Britain got its by far worst placement ever - 0 points and dead last. Their song was decidedly lackluster, but it seems as if many Britons believe that they got shafted because other Europeans wanted to send a message about the Iraq war. While is was lackluster, is was not *that* bad. France, Germany, and Russia place fairly well, and Turkey - which dragged its feet in the war - won, something they have never been remotely close to do before.

While a cheesy song competition does not mean all that much, this may signal bigger things to come. Anyone else seen similar thing happening to USA/Britain in similar fora?

Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[dreadfoil]

We have various contests:

Hog-calling contests in the mid-west are/were pretty big [haven't heard of one in a while];

In other areas, kareoke is very big, and I knew a lady who won 2nd place in kareoke on the island of maui [she's japanese and it's really big there], no offense to anyone, I applaud the efforts that go into Kareoke, but I have a tendancy to dislike it; but my neighbors in Guam used to put speakers in the driveway get the beers rolling and sing Kareoke all night! it was both endearing and horrible. The next morning I would walk out to the driveway, viewing the 'remains of the evening' and bow politely to our singer, sometimes he sang pretty good.

I'm not sure we should use the word cheesy so much, perhaps if we said cheesy just a few times, it would seem a little less critical; if you repeat cheesy too often it makes them feel punished for doing something weird.

IN JAPAN: the yelling contest. Almost always won by men, however, it is one of their few Unisex contests. They are willing to acknowledge that at least the vocal chords of their counterparts are in similar design.

[Inquartata]

I must laugh at the very ideas that the Europeans think we will be dismayed by the prospect of being cynically shut out of song contests, and that CHEATING in the judging of a song contest is a righteous way to "send a message"...

O what next? Will French waiters be even MORE rude to Americans? Horrors! THAT will teach us!

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!

Originally posted by Inquartata
I must laugh at the very ideas that the Europeans think we will be dismayed by the prospect of being cynically shut out of song contests, and that CHEATING in the judging of a song contest is a righteous way to "send a message"...

O what next? Will French waiters be even MORE rude to Americans? Horrors! THAT will teach us!

First of all - it was not cheating. It was maybe ganging up, but whatever it was, no rules were broken.

Secondly - while you may be flippant about how you may be treated while being a tourist in Europe, there are other situations. Consider how it is to be an american citizen in an environment where there are very few other americans around[that is, living on a USA military base doesn´t count] and you are in a position where america-dislikers can get at you, but you have no way to retaliate - pupil/teacher relationship, for example. I have experienced a little of that, and it is not fun to be on the receiving end.

Thirdly - this was a small thing for Great Britain, but I noted that *and* that bigger things may be in the offing. It was small for GB, but for the two singers it was probably a career-ender, with bashing&ridicule on national media thrown in. Not too fun for them, eh? If Smart, the Jacobsons, Cross, and the others get shafted on a ROW call that ends a DE, I bet they would feel non-plussed too. Now, if you were employed by a European firm in Europe, and that firm was to get a huge order from a firm with some USA-eaters in the board, where would that leave you, Inq? What if the huge order came with a condition of a promotion to the cleaning pan - or a pink slip - for you?

In short - while this kind of stuff can not affect the USA as a whole, it can be negative enough for individual Americans. Alas, those most likely to be affected are not those who will reap the biggest benefits of the present US policies.

Yours,

Peter Gustafsson

[veeco]

I think Peter that you might be reading a little bit too much into this result. While I don't watch the Eurovision contest (I don't care much for TV, and pop songs, anyway), I don't think that most countries ganged up on GB to send them a message. Even if that were the case, I don't think that it should be perceived as the sign of bigger things to come. Maybe it's my natural inclination to be positive about this kind of things, but there are much more important things to cross-nations relationships than just a song contest.

Anyway, there has been a some tension between individuals of European countries (UK not included in this case) and the UK and the US. These were mostly childish things, like calling French fries "Freedom fries", and maybe the Eurovision contest. Sure it might be a big deal for a couple of singers or restaurant owner and patrons, but in the end few people are affected and the world doesn't stop.

Some others were definitely wrong and smelled bad taste and stupidity (the graffitis on US soldiers graves in Normandy is an example), but again, apologies were made, graffitis were cleaned, and it hasn't made the world a worse place to live in.

What's important, IMO, is that people who make decisions of importance at the higher level don't take this kind of things seriously and don't give them the importance that a few people would like us to. Since most of these people are generally intelligent, I am confident that bigger things won't come...

[jeff]

First a frivolous reply: Isn't the whole point of the Eurovision contest is that the "music" is laughably bad performance of a US-created genre? And, isn't it amazing that it's largely performed in English? So there's the answer in terms of cultural imperialism (and McDonalds, and Coke; and Jerry Lewis is considered an auteur. If there's ever a war crimes trial for this, we're in a lot of trouble).

More seriously:

- International companies already fire US people before Europeans, if for no other reason than the fact that US law permits it, while it can be hard to fire, say, a German worker (Q: How do you pronounce "Daimler Chrysler?" A: "The Chrysler is silent"). I've seen this even with US-owned companies like IBM (easier to can somebody in Fishkill NY than in Boeblingen).

- Historically, US fencers always got screwed on calls, if for no other reason than the fact that they couldn't trade favors and cut deals. Bigger political issues came to play before (like the Cold War) I doubt that the Iraq war is going to be a factor.

Besides the Euro-competition or the waiter, just consider the national stereotypes: it's fun for Americans to mock French as cheese-eating surrender monkeys (in the immortal words from The Simpsons), just as its fun for French to mock Americans as boorish, clumsy, aggressive oafs. It gives each side a chance to feel superior without having to question whether or not they're actually doing the right thing. Hopefully, as veeco says, grownups are making and executing policy, and not thinking in those terms.

[Inquartata]

Originally posted by PeterGustafsson


First of all - it was not cheating. It was maybe ganging up, but whatever it was, no rules were broken.

If a decision is made not on the basis of musical superiority
( which I rather suspect that the rules establish as the standard for judgement ) but upon the SOURCE of the music, well, I'd call that cheating. Wouldn't you?