Ok, it's coming soon, so make your bets:
I'm guessing bombs will drop March 18 (not on the 17th when the deadline is set for).
Deaths:
first day: 10,000 Iraqis, 25 US servicemen (15 from accidents or friendly fire)
3 weeks until Saddam is captured or killed.
3 months until the first wave of terrorist acts on US soil. Suicide bomber in NY subway.
Any other guesses/bets?
=)=///
First Day 30,000 Iraqis, dead 2 day 50,000 surrendering to our troops. 3 day fuel air bomb destory most of the Repulican guards
and Bagdad. American loseing 30 troops .
Malls targeted for terriost gunmen to go into bombers into subway system.
Concel weapons permits apps will go up in numbers.
Tim Loomis
People sleep peacefully in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.
George Orwell
www.yeoldearmourer.com
500,000 refugees. 250,000 got to Iran. 200,000 got to Turkey. 50,000 dispersed else where. UK may get a few thousand. (They're going to 'swamp' us, apparently)
I also bet that 65% of US/UK troops killed will be friendly fire.
And that a US-led war on Iraq will increase anti-US sentiments from Muslim extreamists, but I don't feel that there will be a significant increase of terrorism on US soil.
I estimate the cost of the war at, oooh, a guess of Ģ1billion for the UK, and $2billion for the US. (just a guess, I've nothing to back that up)
Will France and Russia use their veto? I don't think so, I don't think the resolution will get the 9 votes needed.
Percentage of Iraqi children killed in civilian total- I guess 55%
Years until the full truth is known? I don't think it ever will be. Already the US has said that only reporters it has sanctioned will be allowed into the area; so only the only reports coming out of Iraq will be the ones we are wanted to hear. Who remembers (or, if in the case of not being old enough, knows about), the baby milk factory reported on by Peter Arnett? (widely acknowledged as a mistake by most media sources, but the Pentagon still claims it was not a baby milk factory, but a 'production facility for biological weapons').
Photograpers and reporters not authorised who will be arrested? I'm taking a stab in the dark and saying 50. (last time round it was 70)
Total Iraqi deaths: 150,000
Total allied deaths: 80
Democracy introduced in a satisfactory way? I don't think so.
I wish there were some giant, economy-size asprin tablet that would work on international headaches. But there isn't. The only cure is patience with reason mixed in. - Lyndon B. Johnson.
Member of the Clarendon Blades.
Annan's extended deadline for Cyprus....
Likelihood that tomorrow both sides will agree on reuniting Cyprus (and thus, the last divided capital in the world)?
I'm betting around 65% likely that they're come to some sort of agrement (it's in both side's best interest to join the EU)
I wish there were some giant, economy-size asprin tablet that would work on international headaches. But there isn't. The only cure is patience with reason mixed in. - Lyndon B. Johnson.
Member of the Clarendon Blades.
First day:
Allied casualties: 15 from friendly fire/accidents, 5 from hostile. Iraqi casualties: 7,500. Surrenders/defections: 30,000.
Overall civilian casualties: 50-75 dead from allied causes by the end; 10,000+ from Iraqi causes.
It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us the freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us the freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who gives us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier who salutes the flag, who serves beneath the flag, and whose coffin is draped by the flag, who allows the protestor to burn the flag. - Father Dennis Edward O'Brien, USMC
predictions:
An earthquake will stall invasions.
Last edited by 135711; 03-10-2003 at 11:34 PM.
I'm betting war begins on the 27th or 28th. Much has been made publicly of the desirability of the dark of the moon, which would be the 2nd of April, I think; and we'll want to go a few days before the Iraqis expect us. The 27th and 28th would still be nearly moonless, and that will give Iraqi forces a week or so after the deadline to be on edge and sleepless waiting for the shoe to drop.
100,000 Iraqi casualties high side, 20,000 low side; allied casualties 78 high side, 21 low.
Saddam will not be captured. He will either flee the country hoping to do a Bin Laden ( perhaps to be offered asylum in France ), be assassinated by his own, or pull a Hitler in his bunker.
Very little in the way of terrorist reprisals even if the general Iraqi populace reacts with resistance or sullenness; near zero if they react with rejoicing and flower-strewing.
Hi!
You have a high opinion of the US. armed forces compared to other posters, but considering your choice of career and tagline I guess that that is to be expected.Originally posted by Swordsman
First day:
Allied casualties: 15 from friendly fire/accidents, 5 from hostile. Iraqi casualties: 7,500. Surrenders/defections: 30,000.
Overall civilian casualties: 50-75 dead from allied causes by the end; 10,000+ from Iraqi causes.
If the previous Iraq war is anything to go by, the ratio of Iraq-Caused/Allied-caused civilian deaths will be much higher than your prediction. I just donīt believe that the Iraqi army will kill more than 10,000 of its own in the first day - many of those civilians are relatives to the soldiers involved.
Also, I guess that the allied casualties will be at least comparable to the number in the 1st Iraq war (150-200, IIRC). Once the US. forces start to go in via land things will happen. Many of the oil wells are probably remotely operated by now, so that they they will start burning. This does not require high technology - a radio reciever, some copper wires, and a car battery is all that is needed (they could also be time-set, requiring even less technology). Also, the oil wells are on their soil, so they have had ample time to prepare it. Some personell mines here and there will probably kill more than 5 US. soldiers the first day they go in in numbers.
Other predictions: If there are attacks in the USA, lots of laws targeting - either overtly or indirectly - muslims in general, and men from predominantly muslim countries in particular, will be enacted in the USA. Also, considering that USA is the OECD country with by far the highest density of serial-killers, some nut will go on a spree against US. muslims. After the shooting dies down, lots of Iraqi oil will be exported to USA, or be handled by US. oil companies for prices considerably lower than world market prices.
Closer to us: suggestions from USFA will be disregarded out of hand by the FIE voting board, unless they happen to agree with the views of the French or German FFs, i.e. the heavyweights.
20 years from now: a bunch of Iraqi boys who have seen their relatives die in this war will have grown up. Many of them will bear grudges, leading to some kind of violence.
Inquartata: I do not believe that the the way terrorists behave will have any predictable correlation to the way the the general population does. The former does not take orders from the latter. Also, no matter what, I donīt believe in flower-strewing. Once thousands of civilians have died, the average Iraqi will not be in any mood for flower-strewing, despite the removal of SH. Remember that he has rules the country for several decades, so many are probably accoustomed to him, and the constant state propaganda is bound to have given some effect.
Sallearmourer: what would be the point, from the US. point of view, to destroy most of Bagdad with fuel-air bombs on day 3? Would it be that George Bush II would want to make sure -beyond all doubt - that all still wawering Europeans will go to the French side? What surer way to make the remaining Iraqi troops fight to the bitter end with the valor that comes from despair, once they are sure that neither defection nor surrender will save their lives? OTOH, if GB II is motivated by a wish to show everyone who is not a potential voter of his that he does not care about their opinion, or that he derives pleasure from angering Europeans, (something that many of us have suspected from very early on in his presidency) it makes perfect sense.
Peter Gustafsson
March 18th I will have go to work, as will everyone else...and the world will keep turning. There will be no war, and no conflict for a little while longer. (may a few weeks, or a month or so.)
When all hell does break loose, and the US attacks, the duration of the war will be determined by the maximum speed a US tank can travel go from Kuwait Border to Baghdad. Let's face it, it will be a turkey shoot. The hype about terrorist attacks will be just that....hype. Terrorist attacks were used as a scare tactic last time, but never happened....and with everyone on high alert now, there is less chance. As Saddam asks all muslims to unite against the US, most look at him, as mild mannered intelligent humans, roll their eyes, and go to work, and carry on with their lives as does everyone else!
I do agree with the above post stating that only 'clean' media will be released. The civilian devistation will be suppressed, even with the out cries of many charity groups. And in another 5 to 10 years, we will all be talking about how the US is getting ready to "regulate" the next threatening country.
Last edited by civiltech; 03-11-2003 at 02:10 PM.
I hoping we won't go in by land - hate to say it but if we're going to go to war, then we'll have to fight it the way we fought Japan, by air. About the work thing; over 300,000 Americans are out of work. The mood isn't so good here. We've got a lot of impoverish rag-tag people running around without anything to do all day long. And sorry Peter, that you don't seem to like America too much, but, hey la, tough dog doo, we had 6,000 people sitting in their offices working and someone decided to fly a couple of planes into their offices.
Have a good time.
135711 - From the air? We fought Japan on the ground more than anything, and it was bloody and brutal. Iraq will be fought much more in the air than Japan was, and even the ground work will be NOTHING like what went on in the Pacific.
Peter - Yes, I do have a very high opinion. I've also had the opportunity to see much of its work from closer-up. Despite the magnitude of beauracracy, it is still very effective - and very accurate. Call me biased, but I believe in smart weapons, aiming, and the simple common-sense of a soldier. Also, my estimation of 10,000+ was for the overall war, not Day 1.
It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us the freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us the freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who gives us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier who salutes the flag, who serves beneath the flag, and whose coffin is draped by the flag, who allows the protestor to burn the flag. - Father Dennis Edward O'Brien, USMC
It may not be a good basis for comparison, though.Originally posted by PeterGustafsson
If the previous Iraq war is anything to go by, the ratio of Iraq-Caused/Allied-caused civilian deaths will be much higher than your prediction
(a) The US military is ten years more advanced technologically than it was in the Gulf War. Much more of the fighting this time will be done via unmanned drones, smart bombs, etc. without the need to risk personnel.
(b) The Iraqi military will remember what happened last time. Morale will be if anything even lower than previously.
(c) Unlike last time, the Iraqi command structure will KNOW that their leader is not going to remain in power after the dust has cleared. Self-preservation may well lead many of them to disobey orders, surrender, perhaps even mutiny.
(d) We did not make use of local allies to any substantial degree last time. This time, there will be contingents from the southern Shia, the Kurds, and exile groups from Iran and elsewhere, in a use of native troops the success of which was demonstrated in Afghanistan.
(e) Last time, Saddam had an air force, air defense batteries, and other military hardware which we destroyed in the Gulf War and which he has not been able to replace entirely due to the sanctions. There were also no swept-clean no-fly zones last time around.
(f) He has, if he is to be believed, few or no Scuds this time. The same is probably true of at least some of his stocks of chemical and biological agents.
This is an interesting tidbit, where did you read it? It seems not unlikely, but it isn't something I'd think would be specifically tracked in crime statistics. If you remember the source I'd like to find out more.Also, considering that USA is the OECD country with by far the highest density of serial-killers,
I do not believe that the the way terrorists behave will have any predictable correlation to the way the the general population does. The former does not take orders from the latter.
No, but it is the plight, or fancied plight, of the former which many or most terrorists cite as the putative source of their motivation to lash out. Hamas would not be anywhere as dangerous as it is if the majority of the Palestinian populace was happy and content. So, no plight, no motive. Without a political motive a terrorist is just a common criminal even in the eyes of those he is supposedly defending, he is pursuing a private agenda. He loses legitimacy. What, are the terrorists going to say, "That vicious Satan America, look at the good they have done the innocent Iraqis, they must PAY!"? No. They need a pretext. If the Iraqis do not give them one, they will be exposed as the nihilists they are.
Yet, this is not the view of regional analysts native to the Middle East, such as Fouad Ajami, who believes that there will be dancing in the streets.Also, no matter what, I donīt believe in flower-strewing. Once thousands of civilians have died, the average Iraqi will not be in any mood for flower-strewing, despite the removal of SH. Remember that he has rules the country for several decades, so many are probably accoustomed to him, and the constant state propaganda is bound to have given some effect.
Certainly, there will be those who have profited from Saddam's reign, lower level Ba'ath functionaries, smugglers, war profiteers, and the like who will resent the loss of their perquisites. There will be some blind zealots in the mosques who will think that even the Devil is better than the hated American zionist stooges as long as he is nominally Muslim. But the thousands of Iraqi soldiers who were captured, well treated and released after the Gulf War, to return home with the tales, will have done much to counteract the police propaganda. And the thousands of Iraqi expatriates who return from the West when Saddam is gone will do the rest.
What indeed? More likely I think will be the encircling of Baghdad and Basra with rings of steel, and the broadcast of messages encouraging civilians to leave the city peacefully and the soldiers to lay down their arms and surrender. How long can a blockaded city hold out? No need for the house-to-house fighting Saddam is counting on to "bloody our noses". Let him be reduced to eating rats alone in his bunker while we wait outside....what would be the point, from the US. point of view, to destroy most of Bagdad with fuel-air bombs on day 3?
from what i have read about the pacific war conflict between the usa and japan, our ground fighting was done primarily on the phillipine islands, microneasia, and melonesia. the strategy of japan was to 'island-hop' and eventually win all the islands of the pacific 'united' under the emperor. the us, positioned themselved on the islands and fought the japanese off the islands, back to their mainland, and simultaneously attacked from the air, major military installations, only resorting to nuclear weapons after the emperor refused to surrender. it was an awful struggle.
Last edited by 135711; 03-12-2003 at 04:03 PM.
Hi!
Okay, here comes.Originally posted by 135711
And sorry Peter, that you don't seem to like America too much, but, hey la, tough dog doo, we had 6,000 people sitting in their offices working and someone decided to fly a couple of planes into their offices.
Have a good time.
1. My mother and I were socially ostracized at times during the Vietnam War due to our USA citizenships. (I am born 1966)
2. I got a grade in high school which was in all probability lowered since I showed a political stance contradictory to the teacherīs - I did not find the Soviet invasion of Afganistan a good thing. Not that I am good at drawing/arts anyway, or that it has hindered me in my subsequent life, but it irritates me anyway.
3. I have argued that being a US. Vietnam vet should not automatically qualify one as being a war criminal, and taken flak for that opinion.
4. I have been made to answer for an assortment of policy decisions made by the USA political leadership, and take the heat that those who have taken me to task could not aim directly at the politicians.
And I have never hidden my citizenship(s). Even if I have happened to disagree with a particular US. policy I usually have taken the time to explain *why* they have been enacted, rather that shirk away.
135711 - I dislike your description of me.
Peter Gustafsson
What, out of purest curiosity, is your other citizenship?
It is the soldier, not the reporter, who has given us the freedom of the press. It is the soldier, not the poet, who has given us the freedom of speech. It is the soldier, not the campus organizer, who gives us the freedom to demonstrate. It is the soldier who salutes the flag, who serves beneath the flag, and whose coffin is draped by the flag, who allows the protestor to burn the flag. - Father Dennis Edward O'Brien, USMC
this country has undergone some radical upheavels over the past 30 years or more. Vietnam was very difficult for everyone - anyone who wanted to pull out of vietnam was treated very poorly, and anyone who was supportive of the armed forces was seen as a bully. It was a no-win situation. There is a way to support the armed forces while not supporting war.
Anyway, Peter, sorry, it just stinks and I got mad, the Vietnam thing doesn't really compare to the current situation too much.
And, now, I'm upset, because they just shot that new guy over in Serbia, you know, it's unreal and disgusting, he just got started, the place was just getting it together, and over here, we had some nutcase and his "wife" finally get caught with a kidnapped girl, while a nice retired man pleads "guilty" to con game; and bail bond magnate may be charged; you know what I mean? This is a very difficult place to live in.
I don't think I made a description of you, I was merely saying that it appears to me, that you are not supportive of america. But, that is your right also. We don't see things from your viewpoint, and would have no idea what kinds of information you have been exposed to compared to us. What is happening over in Sweden?
Signed, 135711
um, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Swedish???Originally posted by Swordsman
What, out of purest curiosity, is your other citizenship?
-m
I take back my prediction. After watching newsnet today at Lunch, I think the US and her "coalition" of Spain and Britain are at war within 48 hours. I hear Australia is in on the action as well, however just in a logistics / observation capability right now.
To my understanding, the proposed legislation at the UN for permission to go to war was revoked, so that the "coalition" could act under the vague interpretation of the previous bill 14711 or whatever the heck it was. With France simply stating that it would veto any bill, this was the US's only out. If someone could fill me in on this, please do. I have heard so many different stories, and crap, I have lost total understanding. Somehow, I don't believe the US would go to war on shaky ground such as this. Or would they?
Please advise.
we'd all like to know what the heck is going on, i think we're just learning about the situation as it unfolds. As it stands, we're Monday, the deadline, and who knows? It seems like the whole thing is up for grabs, anyones guess.
I had a grade lowered in high school for political stance myself. It was in a biology class run by an environmentalist. After spending most of the class raving about the Love Canal disaster, he told us we were going to do a survey in the last class session. He went through a list of things you'd do to recycle. I raised my hand for returning pop cans, but was the only one who didn't on a huge list of things noone I've ever known does (like washing your used aluminum foil and driving it to a recycling center, and washing all your glass jars, sorting them by glass type and driving them somewhere I've never been etc). After about the tenth insane thing to do the entire class was staring at me like I was an alien or something. He asked me why I wasn't raising my hand and I told him if you wanted me to spend all that extra work ya hafta pay me to do it. I got a B first semester, B the second, no abscenses and an A on the final exam, guy gave me a C. I hate teachers who do that sort of stuff, Grrr.
2. I got a grade in high school which was in all probability lowered since I showed a political stance contradictory to the teacherīs - I did not find the Soviet invasion of Afganistan a good thing. Not that I am good at drawing/arts anyway, or that it has hindered me in my subsequent life, but it irritates me anyway.
Peter Gustafsson [/B][/QUOTE]
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