JO predictions

[jspierre]

It's that time....anyone venture an educated guess? M/WE, M/WS, M/WF....c'mon, now....

[afc fencer]

cadet ws
1st.becca ward
2nd.Daria Schneider
3rd.Anika davis
3rd. Carylon Wright
5th Sarah parker
6thTiga Schuepp
7th.Dag Wozniak
8th Sarah Borrmann

[edew]

Some day, someone (Craig?) will create an impromptu "betting" pool page on fencing101.com so that we can actually put some teeth to our claims.

JMF:
1. Gabe Sinkin (is he still eligible?)
2. Dmitri KirkGordon
3T. Brendan Meyers
3T. Steve Gerberman

JME:
1. Ben Solomon
2. Tim French
3T. Martin Lee
3T. Ben Bratton

JMS:
1. Mike Momtselidze
2. Adam Crompton
3T. Jason Rogers
3T. Patrick Ghattas

JWF:
1. Emily Cross (duh!)
2. Hannah Thompson
3T. Jacqueline Leahy
3T. Doris Willette

JWE:
1. Case Szawark
2. Kamara James
3T. Keri Byerts
3T. Kira Hohensee

JWS:
1. Emily Jacobson
2. Mariel Zagunis
3T. Emma Baratta
3T. Caitlin Thompson
------------------------------------------------------

CMF:
1. Brendan Meyers
2. Parker Miner
3T. Clinton Kershaw
3T. Emerson DiNapoli

CME:
1. Tudor Saitoc
2. Ben Ungar
3T. Nicholas Chinman
3T. Dwight Smith

CMS:
1. Matthew Zich
2. Max Williams
3T. Bill Thanhouser
3T. Jonathan Berkowsky

CWF:
1. Emily Cross (if she bothers to fence it)
2. Doris Willette
3T. Abby Emerson
3T. Ilana Sinkin

CWE:
1. Keri Byerts
2. Rachel Kantor
3T. Kaila Finlayson
3T. Kelley Hurley

CWS:
1. Sarah Parker
2. Becca Ward
3T. Caitlin Thompson
3T. Eileen Grench

Ok, I know, very conservative picks. It's like what Sports Illustrated would pick when they have no clue who the players are: pick the top-ranked ones.

I did throw in some surprises, more to generate discussion than to stick my neck out.

[DHCJr]

Eric,

I like your picks, but we have one problem with our NAC's. The top fencers many times do not go. They are at World Cups. Two prime examples Emily Cross and both the Jacobsons are not on the confirmed list. I wish they were.

[a517dogg]

I saw Charles Cox fence at San Diego. He won. he looked very very good.

Rubrecht, Ungar, Cox and Bratton top 8, Testerman and Lee top 4, Saitoc loses to Solomon 15-13.

not very conservative picks.

[a517dogg]

that was junior mens epee of course by the way. the only event that really matters.

[Mo]

JWSJWS:
1. Emily Jacobson
2. Mariel Zagunis
3T. Emma Baratta
3T. Caitlin Thompson
:

Edew,
Do you ever follow Women's Saber at all??
Not only are most of your predictions NOT entered in the JO's but if Emily Jacobson has EVER beaten Mariel in a head to head competition it would be a surprize.

Emma Baratta is in the competition. She should definitely medal.
For all the events the main issue right now at this time of year is who is going to be well enough to fence?
Colorado Springs is about 6000 feet. It is cold and dry. So many fencers are sick right now. Those lucky enough not to be hacking up lung tissue should do well.

[Inquartata]

JMS

1. Ghattas
2. Crompton
3. Paul
3.Zich

JWS

1. Zagunis
2. Gaillard
3. Ward
3. Baratta

CMS

1. Berkowsky
2. Zich
3. Thanhouser
3. Williams?

CWS

1. Ward

After that I don't know enough of the younger girls to be able to guess with any great confidence...

[edew]

Originally posted by Mo
JWSJWS:
1. Emily Jacobson
2. Mariel Zagunis
3T. Emma Baratta
3T. Caitlin Thompson
:

Edew,
Do you ever follow Women's Saber at all??
Not only are most of your predictions NOT entered in the JO's but if Emily Jacobson has EVER beaten Mariel in a head to head competition it would be a surprize.

Emma Baratta is in the competition. She should definitely medal.
For all the events the main issue right now at this time of year is who is going to be well enough to fence?
Colorado Springs is about 6000 feet. It is cold and dry. So many fencers are sick right now. Those lucky enough not to be hacking up lung tissue should do well.

I follow women's sabre only peripherally. There's not enough women's sabre in our area for me to warrant a better look. Working on that, though.

[magma]

tea?

[Sabresque]

I don't think Sada's going, but she can beat mariel regularly. I know that Dimitri Kirk-Gordon is staying in Europe to fence in senior world cups, because he's already a shoe-in for the team, too many points.

JWS:

Mariel Zagunis
Emily Jacobson
Baratta
Providenza

CWS:

Caity Thompson
Becca Ward
Eileen Grench
Carolyn Wright

JMS:

Mike
Rogers
Ghattas
Crompton

CMS:

Williams
Zich
Berkowsky
Thanhouser

I don't know enough people really for other events

[veeco]

JME:

1. Martin Lee
2. Ben Bratton
3T. Ben Solomon
3T. Oba Simmonds
5. Kip Cox
6. Tim French
7. Aaron Adjemian
8. Smith Dwight

CME:

1. Smith Dwight
2. Saitoc Tudor
3T. Sulat Nate
3T. Sherrill Teddy
5. Moody Jimmy
6. Chinman Nicholas
7. Pearce Michael
8. Horanyi Andras

[edew]

Originally posted by Sabresque
I don't think Sada's going, but she can beat mariel regularly. I know that Dimitri Kirk-Gordon is staying in Europe to fence in senior world cups, because he's already a shoe-in for the team, too many points.

[...]

JMS:

Mike
Rogers
Ghattas
Crompton

CMS:

Williams
Zich
Berkowsky
Thanhouser

I don't know enough people really for other events

Wow. Williams over Zich and Thanhouser? Or is this just an unsorted list?

Jason Rogers in 2nd? I'd guess either Ghattas or Crompton will beat Rogers to get into the gold medal bout.

[a517dogg]

Whenever Tim French gets up high enough to place in the top 12 or so, he usually makes the finals. when he loses in junior epee, its usually cuz he looks bored and loses to a scrub or someone in the early rounds.

when i made my picks i forgot that the tournement is held in colorado springs, and both french and jackson ranes go to air force. pretty nice for them... they'll be used to high altitude.

[a517dogg]

i also don't think dwight smith can beat tudor saitoc, and i dnot think simmonds will make the four in junior.

[edew]

Originally posted by veeco
JME:

1. Martin Lee
2. Ben Bratton
3T. Ben Solomon
3T. Oba Simmonds
5. Kip Cox
6. Tim French
7. Aaron Adjemian
8. Smith Dwight

CME:

1. Smith Dwight
2. Saitoc Tudor
3T. Sulat Nate
3T. Sherrill Teddy
5. Moody Jimmy
6. Chinman Nicholas
7. Pearce Michael
8. Horanyi Andras

Wow, Lee in first, eh? Been beating you at club practice? I'm surprised at putting Simmonds up that high. He's improved since two Summer Nats ago, when I saw him. He was good then, but a bit scruffy and rough around the edges. I'm hoping he has smoothed out his actions.

For CME, people seem to forget that Cheyenne fencer. Korean guy. Forgot his name, but he's really smooth and quick.

I'm more inclined to put Pearce ahead of Sulat, if only because Pearce is a year older, with more experience.

Why is Andras still doing epee? He's such a good foil fencer, and his foil actions are so contrary to good epee style. I think he should decide now to do one or the other (me personally, I'd rather he take on epee, as I was happy with Soren Thompson doing so and dismayed that Sean McClain didn't ). For Andras, foil looks like his weapon of tomorrow.

[veeco]

Originally posted by a517dogg

when i made my picks i forgot that the tournement is held in colorado springs, and both french and jackson ranes go to air force. pretty nice for them... they'll be used to high altitude.

It doesn't matter too much I think, unless they go to the tournament right after getting out of the plane, a day or two should be enough to adapt.

[veeco]

Originally posted by a517dogg
i also don't think dwight smith can beat tudor saitoc, and i dnot think simmonds will make the four in junior.

But then otherwise it would not be fun!!! I can gamble a little at least ;-)

[veeco]

Originally posted by edew
Wow, Lee in first, eh? Been beating you at club practice? I'm surprised at putting Simmonds up that high. He's improved since two Summer Nats ago, when I saw him. He was good then, but a bit scruffy and rough around the edges. I'm hoping he has smoothed out his actions.

We'll see... Maybe seeing all you guys trash talking about him will make him angry and he'll fence better ;-).

For CME, people seem to forget that Cheyenne fencer. Korean guy. Forgot his name, but he's really smooth and quick.

Is that Josh Choi? If so, he's not registered.

I'm more inclined to put Pearce ahead of Sulat, if only because Pearce is a year older, with more experience.

Yes, but Sulat has had some good results in DivII and DivIII which Pearce hasn't. We'll see, maybe Pearce will break through...

Why is Andras still doing epee? He's such a good foil fencer, and his foil actions are so contrary to good epee style. I think he should decide now to do one or the other (me personally, I'd rather he take on epee, as I was happy with Soren Thompson doing so and dismayed that Sean McClain didn't ). For Andras, foil looks like his weapon of tomorrow.

I think all those Colorado kids (Chinman, Horanyi, Moody) are really good. I wish they all fenced epee exclusively.

[Sabresque]

Well, in JMS Ghattas will probably do better than rogers (?), but I'm holding to my CMS guess. Max (if he's on), has beaten Billy Thanhouser twice (I think) for previous cadet finals this year. Zich is a good question, I'm not sure whether he'll prevail or not.