How much does luck(or chance) play in a duel?

[????]

Is it 100% skill?


80% skill, 20 chance?

50/50???


What do you think?

[D'Artagnan1673]

By duel I imagine you mean a bout. We don't call them duels anymore.

"In my experience there is no such thing as luck" - Han Solo

I would say that luck shots happen the most in epee since there is no right of way to invalidate counterattacks.

[Purple Fencer]

D'Art...that was Obi Wan...Solo's famous quote was "Nwever tell me the odds!"

Luck plays as much in the three weapons as it does in any acticvity...in my first sabre competition, my opponent came charging at me and instead of retreating and parrying...I just ducked and stuck the blade out...I landed a one lighter, but since my eyes had CLOSED at the time, I'd say it was luck.

[D'Artagnan1673]

Opps, you are right. Solo said "Now that's what I call luck"

Nevermind.

[Tomas N]

In my experience, not much, although I tend to fence in tournaments where there is a pretty wide range of skill. I usually have a pretty good sense within the first 10 seconds or so of a most bouts who's going to win. I'm guessing that's different at the top or when fencers are more evenly matched.

[Artisan]

Originally posted by Tomas N
I usually have a pretty good sense within the first 10 seconds or so of a most bouts who's going to win. I'm guessing that's different at the top or when fencers are more evenly matched.

Heh, heh... I seem to know before I've started - if I've watched the opponent in their previous bout(s). But then when I face them and score first, or manage to take a or hold a modest lead I find myself both surprised - and then confused about "now what do I do!" This lapse is usually enough for the more experienced opponent to then figure me out and overcome my lead before I can find a new opportunity. As a beginner, I don't much experience or have many tools in my bag yet - so I run out of ideas quickly.

Such is the strategy that is "inside" fencing - as well as the mental aspect of NOT beating yourself before your opponent has a chance to!

That said - and having lost far more bouts than I've ever won - a good touch against a superior fencer makes it worth the price of admission - even if the final score is 15-3. Its the only attitude I can adopt that will let me survive my "beginnerhood" without getting totally frustrated.

Since I'm as yet "undeclaired" as to whether I will focus on Foil or Epee (...or sabre) as a primary weapon, I remind myself that if I seem to do better against superior fencers at Epee than foil, it is more likely due to the "luck factor" in epee than any natural aptitude or ability I have for epee.


-Art.

[Manjusri]

Assuming you mean a real duel, my guess is: a lot. I've fenced in many one touch epee tournaments and, while you can generally predict who will wind up in the final barrage, you can lose your shirt betting on the early bouts.

A lot of the advantage of an experienced fencer, is the ability to observe and adapt to an opponent. Without a chance to adjust, the odds are evened and favor the unconventional.

[Sildar]

Depends entirely on the individuals involved and the way they fence.

A great many fencers I've seen in the mediocre skill level seem to fence in a way which is entirely luck. I'm talking about folks who make fencing into a sort of third-rate jousting; this seems to be their method:

Wiggle the blade around and hop back and forth randomly to confuse the opponent.

When the opponent seems confused, charge in.

Some people get very good at this, in terms of being likely to hit on most committed attacks, but on any specific touch the odds of hitting or being hit are about the same; in other words, they attack in auto-pilot.

This type of fencer is usually obsessed with speed and force, and if their strategy isn't working they just go harder and faster.

The really good fencers I know, on the other hand, don't commit to an attack unless they are confident that their opponent is truly open, or is about to open themselves up, AND that their opponent is unable to hit them back immediately. They usually pass up two or three openings before they commit, since they only want one they know they can hit with relative safety.

When I'm fencing to control the distance and bladework, using specific actions rather than eight million little twitchy feints, I know exactly what I did wrong even when I lose a touch. But it takes a lot more practice and a specific mindset and strategy to fence that way.

[Inquartata]

It plays a role, but one that's impossible to quantify or to generalize.

[darius]

You make your own luck.

[Inquartata]

Ah, but then does luck enter into the process of making your own luck?

[Mo]

Originally posted by Inquartata
Ah, but then does luck enter into the process of making your own luck?

Luck helps you discover a passion like fencing.
Luck could be called experiences.
Luck lasts for a while, you may be lucky because you have a knack for being a fencer. You may have a big talent and that is lucky.
BUT! Hardwork, a work ethic is necessary. One time Veeco was saying that kids that have a bunch of skills get only so far but then it boils down to how hard someone is willing to work.
Being a good fencer does demand a little bit of luck or circumstance but, the harder you work, the luckier you get.
Instead of depending on luck, one needs to work their *** off!

[Sildar]

In my experience, there's no such thing as luck.

[Artisan]

Originally posted by Mo

Being a good fencer does demand a little bit of luck or circumstance but, the harder you work, the luckier you get.
Instead of depending on luck, one needs to work their *** off!

I would imagine...nay theorize, that: As a fencers skill and experience grows, the degree of "luck" in their game actually decreases. Hard work does not result in more or better luck - it results in more consistent proficiency. I think what we're talking about here is reducing the odds of making errors, or conversely increasing the odds of making correct actions based on sound strategy - not luck.

Then there's bad luck... like getting a pool assignment of 6 competitors that includes what turns out to be 4 of the final 8... That sucks. Or getting the cross-eyed, caffeine deprived, talking on the cell phone ref who would really rather not be there to direct your (foil) bout. Or having your opponent go through 2 weapons and three body cords in order to continue fencing after one touch, taking so long that all your warm up wears off, and the ref is also flustered enough to not manage to card him. These are the things I've been learning about in going to my first competitions that I've been totally unprepaired for psychologically, that no amount of "hard work" or training can forestall. There seems to be no short cut for first hand experience. Why couldn't I be in the pool with the dwarf (sorry - little person), two first time beginners, and the very very senior veteran? -Just my Luck!

~Art.

[edew]

Luck is everything in a duel. If you have +4 armor and a +2 long sword, then your 20-sided die roll will get you a hit if it's more than 8, and if it's more than 16, you get 2 hits. And if you're fighting against some schmuck goblin, you only need 6 hit points to kill.

[Boo Boo]

I had bad luck today (although competition bad luck, rather than bad luck in a fight)...

Fenced well enough to make 4th seed (in a national circuit event with over 70 competitors), but drew a real toughie in my last 16 draw (who shouldn't have dropped a fight in her first round poule). Lost to her 15:13. Was not sad to loose to her (she is a very talented and very intelligent fencer), just would have preferred to meet her in the last 8 or last 4..... :-(

So sometimes, even if you work really hard, bad "luck of the draw" can smack you in the back of the head.

Boo
(hoping that was my "bad luck" for the year...)

[????]

Originally posted by edew
Luck is everything in a duel. If you have +4 armor and a +2 long sword, then your 20-sided die roll will get you a hit if it's more than 8, and if it's more than 16, you get 2 hits. And if you're fighting against some schmuck goblin, you only need 6 hit points to kill.

Why do you get 2 hits if it's more than 16?

I was under the impression you only got multiple attacks for every +5 BAB.

[edew]

Originally posted by ????
Why do you get 2 hits if it's more than 16?

I was under the impression you only got multiple attacks for every +5 BAB.

Because my answer required pulling words our of my 4$$.

[schlager7]

An acquaintance of mine from a chess club often makes the remark, "There is no luck, there is only your opponent's mistake, or yours."

[epeefencer74]

Originally posted by schlager7
An acquaintance of mine from a chess club often makes the remark, "There is no luck, there is only your opponent's mistake, or yours."

Oh man, I couldn't agree with you more. I know this guy who had an uncanny ability to capitalize on the slightest mistakes made. Mind you he's not what I would call a superb fencer. His nickname at the club is "Tai Ko King" which translates more or less to "King of Fluke Shots". The trouble with fencing him is he almost always gets the first three hits against you, and they are those sort of hits that make you go " How the F**K, did he get that". That sort of makes you hot under the collar and you screwup more and the more he scores. It is a vicious cycle I tell ya. But if you can keep your cool, you are more likely to end up beating him.

Back to the topic. As Schlager7 said here, there isn't such a thing as luck on the piste it's just whose mistake it was.