Guesses on Greenville Cadet/Junior

[Mo]

The Official Entries are IN!! (USFencing.org)
Make your guesses for the NAC in Greenville. Don't hold your breath for the "nice sandwich" if you are right though.

[Mo]

Cadet WE
1. Kayley French (she needs to win a biggie)
2. Kaila Finlayson
3.Caitlin McKimmey
3.Anna Cillo
5. Rachael Cantor
6. Christa French
7. Kelly Hurley
8.Rebecca Moss

Cadet Men's Saber
1. Bill Thanhauser
2. Merrick Zagunis
3.Alex Diacou
3. Matt Zich (if history repeats itself)
5.Max Williams
6.Johnathon Berkowski
7. John Wolfe
8. Steve Ahn

[darius]

Let me make an addendum to your Cadet WE prediction: #1 - Keri Byerts.

darius

[Mo]

Darious,
I really know nothing about women's epee. My daughter helped me a little with that list. I just picked out people for no apparent reason!!
Was trying to get some responses!!!
Don't want to do any pickin on Women's Saber. Don't want to jinx anything!!

[Mo]

My picks for the newly added Celebrity Rapier Competition at the Greenville NAC:

1. Arutha, Prince of Krondor
2. Portos (if he passes the urine test)
3. Wesley: The Dread Pirate Roberts
4. The Count of Monte Cristo
5. The Six Fingered Man (thrown-Dagger division)
6. Zorro, Jr. (you know...Antonio Banderas' character)
7. Iniyo Montoya
8. Red Sonja

I'm told that "Gallager" level warnings will be posted strip side for the competiton. The faint at heart are advised to watch from a distance.


The Other Mo

[Jason]

Don't be silly, Mo.
That Kenobi kid is going to take it all, though I think Montoya has a strong chance for second.

[Sabresque]

Originally posted by Mo
Don't want to do any pickin on Women's Saber. Don't want to jinx anything!!

Ditto. In men's sabre, though, cadet-wise...

1) Max Williams
2) Zich
3) Jonathan Berkowsky
4) Billy Tanhouser
5) Merrick Zagunis
6) John Wolff

er... just kinda picked some stuff outta the people I know. Probably not totally accurate here.

[Mo]

Originally posted by Sabresque
Ditto. In men's sabre, though, cadet-wise...

1) Max Williams
2) Zich
3) Jonathan Berkowsky
4) Billy Tanhouser
5) Merrick Zagunis
6) John Wolff

er... just kinda picked some stuff outta the people I know. Probably not totally accurate here.

Billy is fencing so well right now. He just placed 8th in a world cup. Zich was 3rd but rumor is he got lucky!!
We shall see.
Someone guess Women's Saber, Junior and Cadet!!!

[Sabresque]

Originally posted by Mo
Billy is fencing so well right now. He just placed 8th in a world cup. Zich was 3rd but rumor is he got lucky!!
We shall see.
Someone guess Women's Saber, Junior and Cadet!!!

You're kidding! Billy got 8th in Hungary? Our cadets did well in that tourny. I also hear max williams got top 16. So that's at least 3. Very cool.

[epeemike81]

Originally posted by Sabresque
You're kidding! Billy got 8th in Hungary? Our cadets did well in that tourny. I also hear max williams got top 16. So that's at least 3. Very cool.

Nope. Max Williams took 22nd. however, we had 4 in the top 16, as Baum took 9th and Berkowsky took 10th.

-m

[Sabresque]

Oh, well, that even better if so many people did well.

[afc fencer]

Cadet ws
1. thompson
2. Parker
3.Dag Wozniak
3.Carylon Wright
5.Becca Ward
6.Tiga Schuepp
7. Anika Davis
8. Someone else from ofa(i cant decside between Mera Keltner and Sarah Borrmann)

Cadet MS
1.Zich
2.Tanhouser
3.williams
3. Diacou
5.Joe liu
6.Johnny wolff

[Saber-Psycho]

Gee MO you almost have a One Woman post going on here.

Nahhhh...... I think that OFA is going to make a straight run ( no particular order)

Cadet

Caitlin Thompson, Becca Ward, Tiga Schuepp, Sarah Borrmann and Mera Keltner top five!!!


Oh yeah Billy better win cadet too....................

[afc fencer]

All the ofa girls are for sure good enough to make top 8, but because theres so many of them its kinda hard for them not to face each other before top 8.

[epeemike81]

Originally posted by afc fencer
All the ofa girls are for sure good enough to make top 8, but because theres so many of them its kinda hard for them not to face each other before top 8.

It is no harder for them to make the 8 without encountering each other than it is for any set of unaffiliated fencers. Club affiliation does not affect how likely they are to encounter each other early.

-m

[Saber-Psycho]

Lets see
5 girls from Oregon, lets be presumptuous and say that they all make the round of 32, there is a 31% chance that they will fence each other.
OK now say that we umm THEY don't meet , so 5 people from OFA are in the round of 16, there is now a 60+ chance that they will fence each other.

So epeemike there you have it. If you are in a club that has a lot of fencers that do well in a competition, your chances of fencing your team mate does increase. (Well in the DEs anyway)

[epeemike81]

Originally posted by Saber-Psycho
Lets see
5 girls from Oregon, lets be presumptuous and say that they all make the round of 32, there is a 31% chance that they will fence each other.
OK now say that we umm THEY don't meet , so 5 people from OFA are in the round of 16, there is now a 60+ chance that they will fence each other.

umm.... I think you missed my point. my point is that your argument DOESN'T change if you replace the "5 girls from Oregon" with five unconnected girls. a prediction of all clubmates is statistically no less likely than ANY prediction of specific people making the eight.

Of course the chances of them fencing each other go up as they move through the competition, but that is true for ANY set of five fencers who make the 32 and then the 16. my point was in reply to the statement that it would be hard for five clubmates to make the eight (implication: harder than it would for 5 unconnected people in somebody's prediction). That is simply not true. Club affiliation has NO bearing on it. The odds are against ANY prediction holding up. they are just as against, but no more against, a clubmate prediction holding up.

So epeemike there you have it. If you are in a club that has a lot of fencers that do well in a competition, your chances of fencing your team mate does increase. (Well in the DEs anyway)

If you will re-check my first post, you will note that it says that being clubmates does not increase the odds of seeing each other EARLY. i.e., if all five deserve the eight, they are not likely to see each other in the 32. that is true, again, of ANY 5 girls, regardless of club affiliation

-m

[edew]

But that wasn't his point, Mike. At least not from how I read it. His point was that there's so many from OFA that they're likely to meet each other before getting to the round of 8 that one will knock the other out of getting into the round of 8, so that making predictions about which fencer from OFA will make it to the round of 8 will be difficult.

The implicit claim is that if an OFA fencer meets a non-OFA fencer, there's a good chance the OFA fencer will win (which is not too farfetched a claim). However, when two OFA fencers meet, it's not clear who will win.

So, predicting which OFA fencer will make top-8 will be difficult because many of them might knock each other out.

At least heuristically, that's the point I believe saber-psycho was trying to infer.

[Capt. Slo-mo]

Originally posted by epeemike81
It is no harder for them to make the 8 without encountering each other than it is for any set of unaffiliated fencers. Club affiliation does not affect how likely they are to encounter each other early.

-m

But that wasn't the thrust of AFC Fencers comment. She was referring specifically to the group of OFA girls, not any random gaggle of fencers. So to keep insisting that it's no more difficult for them than random fencers is irrelevant. As a group, it has not been uncommon for OFA boys and girls, or PAFC or Nellya girls to have to fence each other to get into the finals.

But Mike is right in one respect. Club affiliation alone doesn't affect meetings, early or late. It's the depth and quality of the fencers in the given club that makes all the difference.

[epeemike81]

Originally posted by Capt. Slo-mo
But that wasn't the thrust of AFC Fencers comment. She was referring specifically to the group of OFA girls, not any random gaggle of fencers. So to keep insisting that it's no more difficult for them than random fencers is irrelevant. As a group, it has not been uncommon for OFA boys and girls, or PAFC or Nellya girls to have to fence each other to get into the finals.

But Mike is right in one respect. Club affiliation alone doesn't affect meetings, early or late. It's the depth and quality of the fencers in the given club that makes all the difference.

AFC Fencer's post was arguing that a prediction of OFA's girls in the final was unlikely. The implication of such a statement applied to only one prediction on a thread of predictions is that it is more unlikely than the other predictions. I was pointing out that it is no more unlikely than any of the other predictions on here. so, in fact, that WAS the thrust of AFC Fencer's post.
-m