2009 Worlds Men's Epee predictions

[lguillemin]

Here are my predictions for the final 64 I'd love to hear your thoughts!!

Worlds Prediction Epee

First set of 8
1. Sven Schmid vs Jan Tivenius
Schmid should win this one fairly effortlessly 15- 10
2. Guillermo Madrigal Sardinas vs Peter Somfai
I’ve never seen Madrigal Sardinas, but I think it would be an upset if he beat Somfai. I give this bout to Somfai 15-13
3. Doron Levit vs Martin Schmitt
Levit is very quick. Levit 15-12
4. Pavel Sukhov vs Francesco Martinelli
Martinelli will clean the floor with Sukhov 15-8

1. Schmid vs Somfai
Schmid should be able to take this 15-12
2. Levit vs Martinelli
Martinelli 15-10

1. Schmid vs Martinelli
This will be a close matchup, I will give it to Martinelli only because it seems Italian footwork messes up Germans. 15-13

Second set of 8

1. Silvio Fernandez vs Ali Yaghoobian
Silvio Fernandez all the way. 9-4
2. Marc Font vs Fabian Kauter
Marc Font has had trouble with Fabian in the past, but if Marc lives up to how he did in pools, he will win. 15-12 Marc
3. Sven Jarve vs Serguei Katchiourine
Sven is one of those slippery Estonians. He should win 15-14
4. Maksym Khvorost vs Jose Luis Abajo
This is a great matchup and too bad it is in the 64s and not closer to the finals. I’ll give Abajo this bout 15-11

1. Fernandez vs Marc Font
Training partners… Fernandez the victory here 7-6
2. Sven Jarve vs Abajo
This will be a close one but I believe Abajo will be able to finish the bout. 15 – 13

1. Fernandez vs Abajo
This will be an epic bout! A tall long French grip vs A quick, strong pistol grip. It is hard to say the outcome, I think Abajo will close the distance and set up two time attacks, the only thing that I am unsure of is how well Silvio can keep distance on Abajo’s forceful attacks. Abajo 15-12

Third set of 8

1. Joerg Fiedler vs Dmitryi Gryaznov
Joerg Fiedler will win this no problem, 15-7
2. Zdenek Coufal vs Elmir Alimzhanov
Don’t know either… 15-14 for Coufal
3. Benj Bratton vs Michael Kauter
Kauter because of Bratton’s inexperience at this level. 15-9
4. Seung Hwa Jung vs Jean-Michel Lucenay
A battle of the French grips. Money is on Jean-Michel 15-12

1. Fiedler vs Coufal
Fiedler once again for an easy win 15-9
2. Kauter vs Lucenay
This one is up in the air. I give it to Lucenay 15 -13

1. Fiedler vs Lucenay
Another awesome match-up. Fiedler 15-12

Fourth set of 8

This is personally my favourite bracket

1. Ruben Limardo vs Andras Redli
Ruben will destroy… 15-8
2. Thomas Cadman vs Anton Avdeev
Avdeev will be way too much for Cadman. 15-7
3. Radoslaw Zawrotniak vs Tigran Bajgoric
Tough one. Radoslaw is my favourite fencer, and Tigran is one of my favourites… the fact that Tigran is representing Canada makes me want to give the bout to him… Zawrotniak will take it 15- 11… Zawrotniak has such a way of imposing his tempo, his distance, his timing. Tigran is very fast and has a great change of direction, so he may nullify Zaw’s controlling footwork.
4. Shogo Nishida vs Gabor Boczko
Boczko 15 – 7

1. Limardo vs Avdeev
This match-up will be sick!! I love Avdeev’s footwork… he is great at drawing counter-attacks… Limardo loves to fleche..Limardo 15-14
2. Zawrotniak vs Boczko
Boczko won this bout in Beijing, mainly (from what I could tell) because Zawrotniak was tired and wasn’t imposing his own footwork. I think Zawrotniak will be in for revenge. Zawrotniak 15-12

1. Limardo vs Zawrotniak
A great bout! This will be amazing. Zawrotniak will win 15- 11

Fifth set of 8

1. Alfredo Rota vs Ozren Debic
Rota will have no problem. 15 - 9
2. Igor Reyzlin vs Joaquim Videira
Hard to say. Reyzlin loves to grab the blade but Videira is great at disengages on counter-attacks. Videira 15- 11
3. Jin Sun Jung vs Adrian Ciprian Szilagyu
Jung will destroy Adrian just like he did everyone in pools. 15-5
4. Lianchi Yin vs Diego Confalonieri
Confalonieri will have little to no problems. 15-10

1. Rota vs Videira
Rota will be able to make Videira counter at the wrong times. Rota 15 - 8
2. Jung vs Confalonieri
Jung is the man. Honestly he is the man. 15 – 13

1. Rota vs Jung
Jung will have difficulties against the Italian. Rota will be able to throw Jung’s movement off, taking advantage of those mistakes. I think Jung will win 15-13

Sixth set of 8

1. Bas Verwijlen vs Vialiy Medvedev
Verwijlen 15-9
2. Arwin Kardolus vs Hugues Boisvert-Simard
Kardolus is an old fencer who is weak in 6. Boisvert-Simard has a wicked 6. Boisvert-Simard 15- 10
3. Ruslan Kudayev vs Won Jin Kim
Not sure about this one. Jin Kim 15-14
4. Sten Priinits vs Matteo Tagliariol
This will be a great match, I believe Matteo will dominate the bout… 15-9

1. Verwijlen vs Boisvert-Simard
Boisvert-Simard. Go Canada! 15-13
2. Won vs Tagliariol
Tagliariol no problem. 15-10

1. Boisvert-Simard vs Tagliariol
Depending on how much Matteo remembers from their last bout…If Matteo doesn’t remember much I think the score will be Hugues 15-13





Seventh set of 8

1. Weston Kelsey vs Feng Wang
Kelsey 15 - 12
2. Krzysztof Mikolajczak vs Kyoung Doo Park
Park is fast as hell. Park 15 - 11
3. Geza Imre vs Ido Herpe
Imre will have troubles but 15 – 13 for Imre
4. Nikolai Novosjolov vs Nikolay Tchaldin
Novosjolov should have no problem. 15 – 10

1. Kelsey vs Park
Kelsey has the height advantage and he plays a mean counter-attack/stop hit game. Kelsey 15 - 10
2. Imre vs Novosjolov
Imre 15-14. The Hungarian has a very strong attack where Nikolai usually tends to bind before riposte. I think Imre will just remise/redouble.

1. Kelsey vs Imre
Kelsey has the height advantage and he uses it really well. Kelsey 15 – 13

Eighth set of 8

1. Ulrich Robeiri vs Igor Tourchine
Ulrich will be able to control the distance and tempo. Ulrich 15-13
2. Jerome Jeannet vs Tomasz Motyka
This will be a great bout. I think Jeannet’s experience will top out Motyka’s speed and timing. Jeannet 15-14
3. Paris Inostroza Budinich vs Bartosz Piasecki
Piasecki only because I fenced him in Berlin and liked his style! 15-14
4. Keisuke Sakamoto vs Gauthier Grumier
Grumier all the way. What else can be said about this monster? 15-2 ! probably not that bad of a beat down.

1. Robeiri vs Jeannet
Battle of the French. From my knowledge Jerome always wins. Jerome 15-14
2. Piasecki vs Grumier
Grumier. Grumier. Grumier. 15- 0

1. Jeannet vs Grumier
Grumier will win 15-0 because he is simply that good. Jerome can actually give Gauthier a run for his money, it all depends on mental statuses. Jerome loses focus very easily and Gauthier can get too cocky. Gauthier 15-12



FINAL 8 ACCORDING TO MY PREDICTIONS:

1. Martinelli
2. Abajo
3. Fiedler
4. Zawrotniak
5. Jung
6. Boisvert-Simard
7. Kelsey
8. Grumier

1. Martinelli vs Abajo
Abajo will win this by attacking in the prep. 15-10
2. Fiedler vs Zawrotniak
A very tough bout. Fiedler is very classical and has a very precise point. I think he will get caught flat footed vs Zawrotniak though. Zawrotniak 15-12
3. Jung vs Boisvert-Simard
Jung is just amazing with his speed. He is a French grip though and Boisvert has a lifetime of practice vs the French grip. Boisvert 15- 13
4. Kelsey vs Grumier
Grumier has Kelsey’s number. Grumier 15 – 8

1. Abajo vs Zawrotniak
If this is a repeat of the European championships… Zawrotniak will win. I think by this point in the tableau he may be tired. If he is, he stands no chance. Otherwise Zawrotniak 15 – 13
2. Boisvert vs Grumier
Grumier is simply on fire this season. 15 – 9

1. Zawrotniak vs Grumier
It seems like there may be a little bit of favouritism on my part. My favourite fencer made it to the final! Still though, Grumier will win. He has a complete game and capitalizes on every mistake his opponent makes. Grumier 15 - 9

[glowstix]

in not as many words, i'm also picking grumier to win..

[K O'N]

Good! Interesting to read, I'm going to print it off and compare it to the actual results. After the event, please write another column explaining what went wrong and why. And put it in actual sports column form, and ask Craig to give you some space as a columnist. If you have an opinion on international ME like this there are a lot of people like me who would read it before and after and between world cup and world championship events. Fencing needs sports columns, we don't watch football or baseball or hockey in a vacuum, we read about it before and after the games so we know the story lines. In as much as you know the history and some story lines, you're set, write the damn thing. Which is to say, good job.

Now, what are your three most likely upsets?

K O'N

[nahouw]

Alfredo Rota vs Ozren Debic
Rota will have no problem. 15 - 9

When did Ozren Debic switch from foil to epee? Yes, I agree that Rota will prevail -- however, if Ozren can sucker him into a foil game, we might have a very different outcome....

[NGV]

When did Ozren Debic switch from foil to epee?

He does both - he fenced MF the previous day.

[nahouw]

He does both - he fenced MF the previous day.

AH! Now I see.... He fenced foil while in college at Notre Dame; now, for his country he fences both.

[nahouw]

Excellent analysis by lguillemin

I agree with your excellent analysis, except up to the Abajo semi-final -- I spoke with him last week on facebook. He is coming off his historic Olympic medal for Spain, and is focused on this World Championships. I think that he will win it -- he is extremely focused and dedicated to his training.

[samh]

Wow man I can't believe you actually wrote it all out. This is great but I disagree with you on a few matches so I just copy-pasted and I'll edit where I disagree


First set of 8
1. Sven Schmid vs Jan Tivenius
15- 10
2. Guillermo Madrigal Sardinas vs Peter Somfai
Madrigal, 15-13. Both very good fencers but I think the edge has to go to the Cuban.
3. Doron Levit vs Martin Schmitt
Schmitt has the technique and physical strenght to shut down Levit's quickness. Schmitt, 15-12
4. Pavel Sukhov vs Francesco Martinelli
Martinelli will clean the floor with Sukhov 15-8. Agreed.

1. Schmid vs Madrigal
Schmid should take this 15-13 since he's been fencing out of this world all season but I saw this one as an upset opportunity as soon as I saw Madrigal's 32 seed.
2. Schmitt vs Martinelli
Martinelli 15-13

1. Schmid vs Martinelli
Schmid's patience > Martinelli's six. Schmid 15-12.

Second set of 8

1. Silvio Fernandez vs Ali Yaghoobian
Silvio Fernandez all the way. 15-8
2. Marc Font vs Fabian Kauter
The younger Kauter has a complete game and while Font has a great coach I think he's too simple to take Kauter over 15 points. F. Kauter, 9-7.
3. Sven Jarve vs Serguei Katchiourine
Sven is one of those slippery Estonians. He should win 15-14
4. Maksym Khvorost vs Jose Luis Abajo
This is a great matchup and too bad it is in the 64s and not closer to the finals. I’ll give Abajo this bout 15-11. I agree... I love Khvorost but I don't really see him getting by Abajo.

1. Fernandez vs F. Kauter
Kauter will finally break out here. He's gone to OT with every one of the world's best fencers, this time he's going to win. Kauter 11-10.
2. Sven Jarve vs Abajo
This will be a close one but I believe Abajo will be able to finish the bout. 15 – 13. Agreed.

1. F. Kauter vs Abajo
Kauter has better patience than Abajo, but Abajo is a monster. I have no idea how this would play out but I think it'll be sick. Abajo, 15-12.

Third set of 8

1. Joerg Fiedler vs Dmitryi Gryaznov
Joerg Fiedler will win this no problem, 15-7
2. Zdenek Coufal vs Elmir Alimzhanov
I like Alimzhanov here, 15-11.
3. Benj Bratton vs Michael Kauter
Bratton fenced great at the WC here in Montreal. Kauter is absolutely the safe choice here given his previous results but I'm going to take a flyer on Bratton and the 15-14 win.
4. Seung Hwa Jung vs Jean-Michel Lucenay
A battle of the French grips. Money is on Jean-Michel 15-12.

1. Fiedler vs Alimzhanov
Fiedler once again for an easy win 15-9
2. Bratton vs Lucenay
Two very different styles. I don't really like Lucenay's fencing very much but I think it could be very effective against the American. Regardless I'll go with my gut instead of my head and say Bratton, 12-10.

1. Fiedler vs Bratton
Bratton's cinderella run will have to end here, as Fiedler's length and experience will prove too much for his explosiveness to overcome. Fiedler 15-9.

Fourth set of 8

This is personally my favourite bracket

1. Ruben Limardo vs Andras Redli
Limardo will take it but I think it will be close. 13-10.
2. Thomas Cadman vs Anton Avdeev
Avdeev will be way too much for Cadman. 15-7
3. Radoslaw Zawrotniak vs Tigran Bajgoric
I heart Tigran but this is a terrible draw for him. Zawrotniak has a huge advantage in length but doesn't give up much in terms of speed or strength to Tigi. If Tigran can deal with Zawrotniak's initial attacks then he can turn it into a defensive battle which he could win. Still Zawrotniak, 15-13.
4. Shogo Nishida vs Gabor Boczko
Boczko 15 – 7

1. Limardo vs Avdeev
This match-up will be sick!! I love Avdeev’s footwork… he is great at drawing counter-attacks… Limardo loves to fleche..Limardo 15-14. Agreed.
2. Zawrotniak vs Boczko
Boczko won this bout in Beijing, mainly (from what I could tell) because Zawrotniak was tired and wasn’t imposing his own footwork. I think Zawrotniak will be in for revenge. Zawrotniak 15-12. Completely agree.

1. Limardo vs Zawrotniak
A great bout! This will be amazing. Zawrotniak will win 15- 11. Yes.

Fifth set of 8

1. Alfredo Rota vs Ozren Debic
Rota will have no problem. 15 - 9
2. Igor Reyzlin vs Joaquim Videira
Hard to say. Reyzlin loves to grab the blade but Videira is great at disengages on counter-attacks. Videira 15- 11
3. Jin Sun Jung vs Adrian Ciprian Szilagyu
Jung will destroy Adrian just like he did everyone in pools. 15-5
4. Lianchi Yin vs Diego Confalonieri
Confalonieri will have little to no problems. 15-10

Agreed with every call in that bracket.

1. Rota vs Videira
Rota will be able to make Videira counter at the wrong times. Rota 15 - 8
2. Jung vs Confalonieri
Jung is the man, but Confalonieri has ice water running through his veins. The Italian isn't as pretty as Jung but he'll pick Jung apart and use his strong 4 to stop any committed attacks. Confalonieri, 15-12.

1. Rota vs Confalonieri
I think most of the younger Italians have a lot of trouble with Rota. Still Confalonieri is my man and I'll take him to win it 15-12.

Sixth set of 8

1. Bas Verwijlen vs Vialiy Medvedev
Verwijlen 15-9
2. Arwin Kardolus vs Hugues Boisvert-Simard
Kardolus is an old fencer who is weak in 6. Boisvert-Simard has a wicked 6. Boisvert-Simard 15- 10
3. Ruslan Kudayev vs Won Jin Kim
Not sure about this one. Jin Kim 15-14
4. Sten Priinits vs Matteo Tagliariol
This will be a great match, I believe Matteo will dominate the bout… 15-9

Agreed with all of the above.

1. Verwijlen vs Boisvert-Simard
Boisvert-Simard. Go Canada! This match is going to be hilarious because both of these guys have really weird-looking fencing styles. My head says Verwijlen but Hughes is much more stable mentally... B.-Simard ftw, 15-13.
2. Won vs Tagliariol
Tagliariol no problem. 15-10

1. Boisvert-Simard vs Tagliariol
Tagliarol will adjust from the last time they fenced and probably take Hughes apart. 15-7, Tagliarol.




Seventh set of 8

1. Weston Kelsey vs Feng Wang
Kelsey 15 - 12 - I agree with this, I like Wang a lot but Kelsey has too much experience for him.
2. Krzysztof Mikolajczak vs Kyoung Doo Park
Mikolajczak is solid. Him, 15-13.
3. Geza Imre vs Ido Herpe
Imre will have troubles but 15 – 13 for Imre
4. Nikolai Novosjolov vs Nikolay Tchaldin
Novosjolov should have no problem. 15 – 10

1. Kelsey vs Mikolajczak
Kelsey is just straight up better. 15-11.
2. Imre vs Novosjolov
Novosjolov has always been one of my favourite fencers, but now that he's gotten a little older, and a little less twitchy with all his athleticism, he's learned to win. Novosjolov, 15-12.

1. Kelsey vs Novosjolov
If Kelsey fences like he did in Montreal then he has no chance. This should be a sick match but I'll take Novosjolov 15-14.

Eighth set of 8

1. Ulrich Robeiri vs Igor Tourchine
Tourchine will control the match a bit more but Robeiri has much better physical tools. Tourchine with the upset 15-12.
2. Jerome Jeannet vs Tomasz Motyka
This will be a great bout. I think Jeannet’s experience will top out Motyka’s speed and timing. Jeannet 15-14. Ya.
3. Paris Inostroza Budinich vs Bartosz Piasecki
Piasecki only because I fenced him in Berlin and liked his style! 15-14. Ya
4. Keisuke Sakamoto vs Gauthier Grumier
Grumier will roll, 15-7.

1. Tourchine vs Jeannet
Jerome will take this if he can get himself psyched up for it. 15-13.
2. Piasecki vs Grumier
Grumier. Grumier. Grumier. 15- 0. Haha, pretty much.

1. Jeannet vs Grumier
Jerome can actually give Gauthier a run for his money, it all depends on mental statuses. Jerome loses focus very easily and Gauthier can get too cocky. Gauthier 15-12. Couldn't agree more.



FINAL 8 ACCORDING TO MY PREDICTIONS:

1. Schmid
2. Abajo
3. Fiedler
4. Zawrotniak
5. Confalonieri
6. Tagliarol
7. Novosjolov
8. Grumier

1. Schmid vs Abajo
Schmid has the repertoire to deal with Abajo's monster attacks. Schmid 8-7.
2. Fiedler vs Zawrotniak
A very tough bout. Fiedler is very classical and has a very precise point. I think he will get caught flat footed vs Zawrotniak though. Zawrotniak 15-12. Yes, Zawrotniak, assuming he can fence with some degree of patience, is just too fast and strong for an aging Fiedler to handle.
3. Confalonieri vs. Tagliarol
Confalonieri is slower, and has worse technique; however, he is very smart and will fence the match exactly the way he wants to. Confalonieri, 15-14.
4. Novosjolov vs Grumier
Great match, could go either way but I like Novosjolov better so I'll take him,15-13.

1. Schmid vs Zawrotniak
Going to be an awesome match. Zawrotniak is bigger and faster but Schmid is patient. This will probably go down to the wire. 15-14, Schmid.
2. Confalonieri vs Novosjolov
After putting away the Olympic champ, Confalonieri won't be able to deal with Novosjolov. Novosjolov, 15-10.

1. Schimd vs Novosjolov
My favourite Novosjolov for the 15-13 win. This is all gut feeling, they have somewhat similar games but I like how Novosjolov's been executing this season.

[Craig]

Hey there - I have the men's epee up now for the bracket challenge:

Follow this link to the 2009 Fencing World Championships Bracket Challenge.

[TrainingDummy]

How can those of us who don't get NBC Universal watch these bouts?

[epee203]

1.Sven Schmid
2.Abajo
3.Bratton
4.Boczko
5.Rota
6.Verwijlen
7.Imre
8.Grumier

top 4
Schmid- Boczko
Rota-Grumier

Final Boczko- Grumier

Bratton I hope for a medal.

[lguillemin]

Good! Interesting to read, I'm going to print it off and compare it to the actual results. After the event, please write another column explaining what went wrong and why. And put it in actual sports column form, and ask Craig to give you some space as a columnist. If you have an opinion on international ME like this there are a lot of people like me who would read it before and after and between world cup and world championship events. Fencing needs sports columns, we don't watch football or baseball or hockey in a vacuum, we read about it before and after the games so we know the story lines. In as much as you know the history and some story lines, you're set, write the damn thing. Which is to say, good job.

Now, what are your three most likely upsets?

K O'N

If you would like me to write a column I could give it a shot. I have no problem putting in the time to do this. I love this stuff.

As for my three most likely upsets....

Bratton over Kauter I would see as an upset, but it could be Bratton's boost to get him ranked top 16. I would love to see Bratton win this one.

Boisvert-Sivard beats Bas Verwijlen. I think Boisvert can turn this into a mental game and through Bas off.

Park over Kelsey. it is quite possible that Park's french grip and speed on the counter can get him to gain a 1 point lead. I think it will be close.




@ Sam

I appreciate you taking the time to read this. I've been analyzing this tableau and I've been eager to see the outcome. My analysis is completely based off of research, I would love for it to turn out completely differnent and then I can base this evidence against stuff like Beijing and really get to see how deep our talent pool is in epee.

It will be interesting to see what happens

[lguillemin]

Wow man I can't believe you actually wrote it all out. This is great but I disagree with you on a few matches so I just copy-pasted and I'll edit where I disagree

Sam, I am responding to you in this font format. Hopefully it will help to see who said what. I bolded they key points and commented on some.

2. Schmitt vs Martinelli
Martinelli 15-13
1. Schmid vs Martinelli
Schmid's patience > Martinelli's six. Schmid 15-12.


I think because of the pressure that Martinelli will be able to make Schmid uncomfortable and anxious enough to lose his patience


2. Marc Font vs Fabian Kauter
The younger Kauter has a complete game and while Font has a great coach I think he's too simple to take Kauter over 15 points. F. Kauter, 9-7.

Marc Font was on in pools. I think he can keep the train going


4. Maksym Khvorost vs Jose Luis Abajo
This is a great matchup and too bad it is in the 64s and not closer to the finals. I’ll give Abajo this bout 15-11. I agree... I love Khvorost but I don't really see him getting by Abajo.

I think this would be a big upset


1. Fernandez vs F. Kauter
Kauter will finally break out here. He's gone to OT with every one of the world's best fencers, this time he's going to win. Kauter 11-10.

Hard to say. Fernandez is a master in OT.


3. Benj Bratton vs Michael Kauter
Bratton fenced great at the WC here in Montreal. Kauter is absolutely the safe choice here given his previous results but I'm going to take a flyer on Bratton and the 15-14 win.

It his chance to shine!


2. Bratton vs Lucenay
Two very different styles. I don't really like Lucenay's fencing very much but I think it could be very effective against the American. Regardless I'll go with my gut instead of my head and say Bratton, 12-10.

Lucenay has a really good distance game. Pressure could hurt Bratton.

1. Fiedler vs Bratton
Bratton's cinderella run will have to end here, as Fiedler's length and experience will prove too much for his explosiveness to overcome. Fiedler 15-9.

Yeah Fiedler is the complete package.

3. Radoslaw Zawrotniak vs Tigran Bajgoric
I heart Tigran but this is a terrible draw for him. Zawrotniak has a huge advantage in length but doesn't give up much in terms of speed or strength to Tigi. If Tigran can deal with Zawrotniak's initial attacks then he can turn it into a defensive battle which he could win. Still Zawrotniak, 15-13.

This would be a great upset.


1. Limardo vs Zawrotniak
A great bout! This will be amazing. Zawrotniak will win 15- 11. Yes.

2. Jung vs Confalonieri
Jung is the man, but Confalonieri has ice water running through his veins. The Italian isn't as pretty as Jung but he'll pick Jung apart and use his strong 4 to stop any committed attacks. Confalonieri, 15-12.


I think you are very right on this.


1. Verwijlen vs Boisvert-Simard
Boisvert-Simard. Go Canada! This match is going to be hilarious because both of these guys have really weird-looking fencing styles. My head says Verwijlen but Hughes is much more stable mentally... B.-Simard ftw, 15-13.


1. Boisvert-Simard vs Tagliariol
Tagliarol will adjust from the last time they fenced and probably take Hughes apart. 15-7, Tagliarol.

Hard to say. Quite possible.


2. Imre vs Novosjolov
Novosjolov has always been one of my favourite fencers, but now that he's gotten a little older, and a little less twitchy with all his athleticism, he's learned to win. Novosjolov, 15-12.


1. Kelsey vs Novosjolov
If Kelsey fences like he did in Montreal then he has no chance. This should be a sick match but I'll take Novosjolov 15-14.

1. Tourchine vs Jeannet
Jerome will take this if he can get himself psyched up for it. 15-13.
2. Piasecki vs Grumier

Grumier. Grumier. Grumier. 15- 0. Haha, pretty much.

1. Jeannet vs Grumier
Jerome can actually give Gauthier a run for his money, it all depends on mental statuses. Jerome loses focus very easily and Gauthier can get too cocky. Gauthier 15-12. Couldn't agree more.



FINAL 8 ACCORDING TO MY PREDICTIONS:

1. Schmid
2. Abajo
3. Fiedler
4. Zawrotniak
5. Confalonieri
6. Tagliarol
7. Novosjolov
8. Grumier

2. Fiedler vs Zawrotniak
A very tough bout. Fiedler is very classical and has a very precise point. I think he will get caught flat footed vs Zawrotniak though. Zawrotniak 15-12. Yes, Zawrotniak, assuming he can fence with some degree of patience, is just too fast and strong for an aging Fiedler to handle.
3. Confalonieri vs. Tagliarol
Confalonieri is slower, and has worse technique; however, he is very smart and will fence the match exactly the way he wants to. Confalonieri, 15-14.

This will be a test of Tagliariol's patience.


1. Schimd vs Novosjolov
My favourite Novosjolov for the 15-13 win. This is all gut feeling, they have somewhat similar games but I like how Novosjolov's been executing this season.

This one will be a clash of styles. Nice to see.

We will see how it turns out!

[KD5MDK]

How can those of us who don't get NBC Universal watch these bouts?

It's not on TV, it's streaming from their website.

[samh]

@ Leland

Did you look much at head-to-head results from this and prior seasons? I thought about doing that but I ended up basing my predictions mostly on who I noticed fencing well this season and some match-ups that I think will favour a certain style of fencing. Along with a healthy dose of favouritism, of course.

[telkanuru]

I assume there's another Leland in this thread...

[lguillemin]

Yeah I'm the Leland to which Sam is referring to. You are a Leland too? We are awesome

@ Sam
Mostly I based my predictions off analysis of previous the Grand Prix and World Championships events since 2007. It is hard to say whether or not those tournaments hold any value or not, fencers change and with a talent pool as deep as epee it seems previous tournaments don't really hold up for too much analysis simply because anyone in the top 64 could win on any given day.

At the same time going with who is hot this season might not be the most reliable way either, the fencers could be choosing different events to peak at. And to consistently peak at each tournament you are going to have to put in a lot of hours ensuring you peak at the right times... that could very well wear down ones focus and body.

In the end I went with a mix of both, for example : Grumier. Hot all season. Oh and the favoritism is strong in my predictions apparently with Zawrotniak making it to the finals.

[K O'N]

If you would like me to write a column I could give it a shot. I have no problem putting in the time to do this. I love this stuff.

I think it would be nice if we could develop weapons-specific columns on fnet, that would be a big feature for me. I like to watch high level epee whenever I can, but I don't currently have any way to keep up with who's hot, who's not, who's coming up and so on. PM Craig and see if he'll give you some space; all he can say is "no", right?

As for my three most likely upsets....

Bratton over Kauter I would see as an upset, but it could be Bratton's boost to get him ranked top 16. I would love to see Bratton win this one.

That would be great.

Boisvert-Sivard beats Bas Verwijlen. I think Boisvert can turn this into a mental game and through Bas off.

That would be great too. I don't really like Verwijlen's style of fencing, I have to admit. And I thought his fans were rude at Beijing, someone out here was going on about that and I went back and looked. I'm all for loud fans, but the air horn was a bit much for me.

Park over Kelsey. it is quite possible that Park's french grip and speed on the counter can get him to gain a 1 point lead. I think it will be close.

Being a fellow french grip counterattacker I like Park's fencing from what I've seen, but of course I hope you're wrong on this one.

Interesting stuff, thanks.

K O'N

[lguillemin]

I will consider the column idea. I'll write my thoughts on the event tomorrow after it happens. I don't know if I will post it until monday though.

I enjoy seeing everyone else's thoughts and view points.

[telkanuru]

Yeah I'm the Leland to which Sam is referring to. You are a Leland too? We are awesome

Agreed.