2009 Worlds Men's Epee predictions

[the doc]

The joy and depth of men's epee means that the OP turns out to be almost totally wrong with his wonderfully considered opinion. In fact, a lot worse than random guessing.

Just go to show that prediciting Men's Epee is basically impossible.

[lguillemin]

The joy and depth of men's epee means that the OP turns out to be almost totally wrong with his wonderfully considered opinion. In fact, a lot worse than random guessing.

Just go to show that predicting Men's Epee is basically impossible.

I have to quote this for emphasis. These are educated predictions and look how completely different it turned out! This is very exciting !

Abajo and Tagliariol are the only two I predicted to be in the top 8.

I'll do my write up and have it ready for you guys tomorrow. I have to do some (apparently meaningless!) analysis.

[samh]

Only predictions that I am proud of were 1) Madrigal Sardinas was a contender for a big upset (even though I wussed out of picking him) and 2) that F. Kauter and Fernandez would go to OT (eventually Kauter's going to get lucky and win an OT match).

[K O'N]

I have to quote this for emphasis. These are educated predictions and look how completely different it turned out! This is very exciting !

Abajo and Tagliariol are the only two I predicted to be in the top 8.

I'll do my write up and have it ready for you guys tomorrow. I have to do some (apparently meaningless!) analysis.

The semis and finals were amazing. I'll be interested to hear what you think of the Avdeev Abajo semi; Abajo just missed a lot! But I didn't understand why he didn't back off and settle down after he got down a couple of touches. He just looked mad to me, or as though he were stuck in high gear, or maybe he thought if he could start hitting he could catch back up? Very curious. And he never went to the foot, or what? Once or twice. He looked in the Olympics as though the foot was an important action for him.

Tagliariol Jeannet was what I expected, actually. Tagliariol really seems to wake up in the third period and understand the tempo; he did it in the Olympics, and did it in this bout too.

Then Tagliariol Avdeev! Wow. I'd love it if someone who watches that level of ME a lot would do a commented bout on that, they did all sorts of stuff. Tagliariol's flick attacks and counters to the arm, then some parry counterparry stuff, counters against prise de fer, then Avdeev changed his game in the third period, seemed to completely get off the blade and went to indirect attacks and counters (I have to go back and watch, I've only gone through it once) and pulled it out, and the whole time I was pretty sure Tagliariol was going to run a string on him and walk away with it. It looked to me as though both of them knew what the last action was going to be, and they both thought they could get it, and Avdeev just barely squeaked the double.

Just an amazing bout.

K O'N

[lguillemin]

@ K'O N
My reply to what you said is included in my column that I will be posting later today.


Going over my predictions and the actual results, I find a couple things interesting.

I predicted :
Fernandez vs Marc Font
Fernandez 7-6

What actually happened was
Fernandez vs Kauter
Fernandez 7-6

Then the next bout I predicted
Abajo vs Fernandez
Abajo 15 - 12

Actual Result: Abajo 15 - 12 over Fernandez

I will continue to edit this post as I find more things like this.


Edit:


After reviewing my predictions it appears I wasn't as god awful wrong as I thought I was after seeing the finals. I think I will do an analysis of my predictions as a second piece after my column. What do you all think?

[lguillemin]

I have posted my column on the discussion page.

Would anyone be interested in an overall brief analysis of the top 64 tableau?

I would be comparing this to my predictions as part of it.

[lguillemin]

Here are the results vs my predictions. Only the ones that I got right

I only got 26 bouts correct out of 63

Results vs My predictions

1st Set of 8

• Schmid vs Tivenius – I said Schmid would win effortlessly
• Sukhov vs Martinelli – Martinelli win

2nd Set of 8

• Fernandez vs Yaghoobian – Predicted Fernandez to win
• Jarve vs Katchiourine – Predicted Sven would win
• Khvorost vs Abajo – predicted it would be close but Abajo would win
• Fernandez vs Kauter – I predicted Fernandez vs Font, but the score was the same as my prediction 7-6
• Jarve vs Abajo – predicted Abajo would win
• Fernandez vs Abajo – Predicted Abajo would win 15-12, he did

3rd set of 8

• Fiedler vs Gryaznov – Predicted Fiedler

4th set of 8

• Limardo vs Redli – Limardo won
• Avdeev vs Cadman – Avdeev won

5th set of 8

• Rota vs Debic – Predicted rota would win
• Reyzlin vs Videira – Predicted Videira would win
• Jung vs Szilagyu – Predicted Jung would win
• Confaloneiri vs Yin – Confaloneiri won
• Confaloneiri vs Jung – Jung won

6th set of 8

• Verwijlen vs Medvedev – Bas
• Kardolus vs Boisvert-Simard – Boisvert ftw
• Kudayev vs Kim – Gave it to kim 15-14
• Priinits vs Tagliariol – Matteo
• Won vs Tagliariol – Tagliariol

7th set of 8

• Tchaldin vs Novosjolov – Novosjolov
8th set of 8

• Robeiri vs Tourchine – predicted 15 – 13 for Robeiri that was the score
• Jeannet vs Motyka – Jeannet
• Grumier vs Sakamoto – Grumier
• Robeiri vs Jeannet – Jeannet

[TrainingDummy]

Any chance we can get the heights of the fencers? IIRC, Tagliariol is 6'2". The 2008 Beijing page says Avdeev is 172 cm (about 5'8"), which certainly gives heart to this 5'11" fencer.

[lguillemin]

goto www.fie.ch and look under the rankings to find the heights