Amity Shlaes's The Forgetten Man

[Greg]

Obama is taking us done the same general path as FDR. It's gonna be a long recession.

[Hauptman]

Obama is taking us done the same general path as FDR. It's gonna be a long recession.

Please, enlighten us... what would you be doing if you were president?

[I_luv_saber]

Sleeping in the White House?

[Greg]

Please, enlighten us... what would you be doing if you were president?

Simple. Don't raise taxes. Cap and Trade, which no one in the House read and frankly most people don't know what its about, is a massive energy tax bill - and Obama admits it will drive up energy costs. Health Care will cost a trillion plus which he also admits to. In a recession, one must cut taxes not raise them. What would I do as president? Scrap both of these bills. Cap and Trade is a joke especially since the big polluter nations like China and India will never agree to a similar law. Take most of the remaining stimulus money that was not spent - about $700 billion and use that for a massive personal and small business tax cut and meaningful infrastructure repair and put the rest back in the treasury.

[telkanuru]

That's an... interesting... interpertation of both past and current events.

[Sins of the Fleche]

One thing that FDR got right that Obama has yet to do is that FDR created actual, real jobs that built useful things (ex: TVA).

What I would propose is that if Obama wants to go down FDR's road (which I think he is spiritually following, it not mimicking in terms of actual policy), I think large-scale works projects like the TVA, etc. would 1) employ a large number of people and 2) provide a useful item or service when completed. An example I'ld forward would be a transcontinental high-speed railroad. Japan and many European nations have one, they're fairly environmentally friendly (which Obama & Co. should love), and if it's carried off quickly it might help road congestion.

Instead of focusing on trying to pass legislation to correct the economic downturn, I think that providing and creating real jobs where people do real work that provides a real product (not some make-believe government jobs that are welfare in disguise), I think you'll see the economy start to improve fairly quickly. At the end of the day, if people have jobs, the economy will improve.

[fencerchica]

Boy, I wish that Obama would more seriously follow FDR's example. The temporary rise of the middle class during the middle of the 20th century can be credited both to FDR specifically and to the wage controls that WWII facilitated. Don't raise taxes, eh? I guess you're one of the folks who would like to claim that allowing the idiotic Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire consitutes "raising taxes"? The Bush tax cuts account for an even larger slice of the 2000-2008 national deficit increase than the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Hell, I'd like to not only repeal the Bush tax cuts, but how about we go a step further and raise the tax rates to, oh, what they were during the freaking Reagan years, at least? Isn't Reagan supposed to be the patron saint of so-called fiscal conservatives, anyway? And you think we don't need healthcare reform? Seriously?

Simple. Don't raise taxes. Cap and Trade, which no one in the House read and frankly most people don't know what its about, is a massive energy tax bill - and Obama admits it will drive up energy costs. Health Care will cost a trillion plus which he also admits to. In a recession, one must cut taxes not raise them. What would I do as president? Scrap both of these bills. Cap and Trade is a joke especially since the big polluter nations like China and India will never agree to a similar law. Take most of the remaining stimulus money that was not spent - about $700 billion and use that for a massive personal and small business tax cut and meaningful infrastructure repair and put the rest back in the treasury.

[Hauptman]

Simple.

Sorry, but I think you fail right there at the start.

These issues have been debated by economists, historians, policy makers, and everyone else for a long time with no clear end to that debate. If you think there is anything simple about it then you are probably either too arrogant or too simple in your thinking.

Money spent in the economy is money spent... the only question is where does it get spent to get the most of the money multiplier effect, stimulate growth through competition, and possibly advance agendas that are useful. So actually I agree with some of your examples like putting money into the economy at the bottom of the scale to individuals (if low and middle income) and small business, and for spending on infrastructure.

But health care spending is occurring now; the money is already spent. While health care reform will raise gov't spending in that arena it will also raise revenues in that arena, and we don't know if it will raise or lower overall spending. Since gov't has no profit margin to consider, and overhead costs for gov't health plans are far lower than private, there is a reasonable argument that costs may come down.

And cap and trade may indeed raise energy costs slightly (no one knows for sure) it will also spur considerable investment in energy technologies that will benefit the economy and ecology in the long run. To a certain extent I consider this infrastructure investment as well.

[Slim]

Obama is taking us done the same general path as FDR. It's gonna be a long recession.

Hush now. He's doing just fine.

[Greg]

Hush now. He's doing just fine.

Just fine? Let's see about that one. He's doubled the national debt; rammed through cap and trade that no one read; (do you even know what that is?) he's attempting to force national health care on us with a single payer option; had to send an ex-president to get those two journalists out of N. K. since old Kim doesn't respect him and trashed Hillary in public; closed Gitmo then didn't close it; failed miserably in Iran where after a fraudulent election, Iranian security massacred hundreds of protestors and what did your Obama say via chubby Gibbs? Oh yeah, he said "we recognize the president". Yeah, let's recognize a guy who has his security staff murder hundreds of their own citizens and calls for the destruction of Israel. That alone is stunning ignorance. And what about employment? How about 9.5 percent and increasing. Let's see what the new number is tomorrow. Yeah, he'd doing just fine. And what about being a unifer and post racial? How about playing the race card in the Gates incident where that cop was as clean and one could be. The fact that the cop was so clean must have totally frustrated the leftists. They were hoping beyond hope he was another Furman and they got a boyscout.

If that is your definition of just fine, I'd hate to see what you think is terrible.

[Inquartata]

Heh, it seems that our more liberal members share the density on economics which the President and some of his senior staffers display.

So many howlers! Wage controls are good things? FDR was the nation's economic savior? Cap and trade will only increase taxes slightly? Government health care "reform" will raise revenues?

Wowee!

[Hauptman]

Just fine? Let's see about that one. He's doubled the national debt; rammed through cap and trade that no one read; (do you even know what that is?) he's attempting to force national health care on us with a single payer option; had to send an ex-president to get those two journalists out of N. K. since old Kim doesn't respect him and trashed Hillary in public; closed Gitmo then didn't close it; failed miserably in Iran where after a fraudulent election, Iranian security massacred hundreds of protestors and what did your Obama say via chubby Gibbs? Oh yeah, he said "we recognize the president". Yeah, let's recognize a guy who has his security staff murder hundreds of their own citizens and calls for the destruction of Israel. That alone is stunning ignorance. And what about employment? How about 9.5 percent and increasing. Let's see what the new number is tomorrow. Yeah, he'd doing just fine. And what about being a unifer and post racial? How about playing the race card in the Gates incident where that cop was as clean and one could be. The fact that the cop was so clean must have totally frustrated the leftists. They were hoping beyond hope he was another Furman and they got a boyscout.

If that is your definition of just fine, I'd hate to see what you think is terrible.

I just love it when someone seems to want to spur discussion when in reality they just want confirmation of their own fallacies and biases.

Have fun trolling.

[Hauptman]

Heh, it seems that our more liberal members share the density on economics which the President and some of his senior staffers display.

So many howlers! Wage controls are good things? FDR was the nation's economic savior? Cap and trade will only increase taxes slightly? Government health care "reform" will raise revenues?

Wowee!

I expect better than just ad hominem attacks at liberals from you, Inq. And you even quoted badly!!

Who said "savior"? When did anyone talk about cap & trade raising taxes? And obviously any taxes related to health care reform will raise revenue; taxes are revenue, right?

Don't bother responding... I'm already moving on.

[Inquartata]

Oh, how little you know me...

"And cap and trade may indeed raise energy costs slightly"

Raising those costs amounts to a tax on all users, and from what I've read NOT a slight one, either!

( You can Google "cap and trade tax", skip the blogs and the Heritage Foundation and Fox News stories, and just check the WSJ and Washington Post stories. )

[Sins of the Fleche]

My main issue with cap and trade isn't what is (although I do have a few), it's the timing. The middle of a recession isn't the best time to ram through expensive climate reform and pass the bill on to taxpayers, regardless of the "urgency."

[I_luv_saber]

Instead of focusing on trying to pass legislation to correct the economic downturn, I think that providing and creating real jobs where people do real work that provides a real product (not some make-believe government jobs that are welfare in disguise), I think you'll see the economy start to improve fairly quickly. At the end of the day, if people have jobs, the economy will improve.

The only problem I see with this is that many, many Americans simply don't want those jobs (manufacturing, etc). It's the same issue of "kicking all the illegals out" so American citizens can take those jobs... the problem is, Americans often won't take those jobs. True that desperation will make people take whatever they can get, but I don't think we're quite that desperate yet.

Not necessarily saying that's a good thing, just pointing out that that aspect of FDR's program may not work so well in modern day America, for better or for worse.

I'm sort of torn on the matter. While I feel we should keep a strong blue-collar jobs base such as manufacturing (no matter how high-class a society, we still all need plumbers and field workers, etc), we should also be cultivating education, and as such more white-collar jobs to raise the standard of living. I'd imagine the answer is probably somewhere in-between. I'd always liked the idea of the option of either vocational training/apprenticeships or college prep classes in high school. Would be interesting to hear more opinions on the subject though...

[Hauptman]

The only problem I see with this is that many, many Americans simply don't want those jobs (manufacturing, etc). It's the same issue of "kicking all the illegals out" so American citizens can take those jobs... the problem is, Americans often won't take those jobs. True that desperation will make people take whatever they can get, but I don't think we're quite that desperate yet.

Not necessarily saying that's a good thing, just pointing out that that aspect of FDR's program may not work so well in modern day America, for better or for worse.

I'm sort of torn on the matter. While I feel we should keep a strong blue-collar jobs base such as manufacturing (no matter how high-class a society, we still all need plumbers and field workers, etc), we should also be cultivating education, and as such more white-collar jobs to raise the standard of living. I'd imagine the answer is probably somewhere in-between. I'd always liked the idea of the option of either vocational training/apprenticeships or college prep classes in high school. Would be interesting to hear more opinions on the subject though...

I agree with you that most americans don't want those jobs, but is that cultural?

You make the argument that education is most important and that white-collar jobs are better paying than blue-collar jobs. I believe these are the myths that are perpetuating the first problem you identified.

Plumbers, mechanics, and various journeyman craftsmen make significantly more money than most college graduates, make it in fewer years, accumulate less debt, and have better job security (based on demand).

The myth of "a college degree is the only way", along with "buying a house is always better than renting", is one of the issues that contributed to our current state of affairs.

Now don't get me wrong, I strongly encourage education, but let's face it... people don't go to college for an education, they go because they feel they have to in order to make more money which is simply not reality for most graduates (if they graduate at all).

[I_luv_saber]

I agree with you that most americans don't want those jobs, but is that cultural?

I kinda think so. As a culture we've become, for lack of a better word, spoiled. At the time of FDR's changes, the people were in a very different state of mind. Firstly, there was the war, and then afterwards you had a culture that was shaped by the soldiers that came home (rise of canned food, etc).

It seems a cultural thing to me anyway. If not what do you think it is?

Just look at the 90's. The message of "go to college, go to college, go to college" was pushed hardest then (at least it seems so to me). Blue collar jobs would, I think, naturally gain more of a distaste as a side effect of that.

You make the argument that education is most important and that white-collar jobs are better paying than blue-collar jobs. I believe these are the myths that are perpetuating the first problem you identified.

Well, sort of. As I said, I'm torn. I feel for the standard of living for a country to rise as a whole, there needs to be strong education, and eventually more white collar jobs. However, I also see the constant need for blue collar jobs, both as a society and culture, and as a country.

I 'spose in the end it's a balance of wanting everyone to be able to live a good lifestyle countered by the practicality of "someone's gotta do it".

Plumbers, mechanics, and various journeyman craftsmen make significantly more money than most college graduates, make it in fewer years, accumulate less debt, and have better job security (based on demand).

Just out of curiosity, do you know if it has always been this way? As I understand it, we are seeing less and less willing to take more blue collar jobs and more that wish to go to college and pursue white collar jobs (as you pointed out, it's heavily perpetuated myth). It's been pushed, culturally, for a long time to be successful you must have gone to college. As such, I would guess that since supply has shifted towards one, that demand would raise in the other.

The myth of "a college degree is the only way", along with "buying a house is always better than renting", is one of the issues that contributed to our current state of affairs.

I agree with that completely. However I would note that I definitely do NOT want to lose blue collar jobs at any rate. I'm simply saying at what point do we advance, at least somewhat, to the point where we perpetuate more white collar jobs (not necessarily dropping blue collar jobs)?

Again, at this point, I'm not really vested in either camp because I see the points of each side and I'm not really sure exactly where I stand yet. As usual, probably somewhere in between .

[Inquartata]

My main issue with cap and trade isn't what is (although I do have a few), it's the timing. The middle of a recession isn't the best time to ram through expensive climate reform and pass the bill on to taxpayers, regardless of the "urgency."

The same can be said of a lot of the Democratic initiatives. Health care reform, for example.

And to all of them the answer, which they will never actually give you, is: "Strike while the iron is hot". They have been waiting too long for an opportunity to advance their agenda to be put off by minor details like expense or timing. They realize that it's in the nature of politics for voters, and other stakeholders, to become disillusioned as time goes on. It will only get harder to push these programs through, and if they wait until things get better they may not be able to get them through at all.

And that's all that's really important. They can always print the money later.

The only problem I see with this is that many, many Americans simply don't want those jobs (manufacturing, etc). It's the same issue of "kicking all the illegals out" so American citizens can take those jobs... the problem is, Americans often won't take those jobs.

Yes. Which is why we might try filling those unwanted jobs with legal immigrants.

Clearly a lot of people want to come here for a better life. I think we'd have better luck legally and culturally if we made it easier for the ones who would like to come legally. There's a ripe target for reform, if anyone is looking for one: immigration policy.

Plumbers, mechanics, and various journeyman craftsmen make significantly more money than most college graduates, make it in fewer years, accumulate less debt, and have better job security (based on demand).

The ones who can find jobs, maybe. The problem is that the labor markets are awash in people with the training and experience to do those jobs, and there are not enough positions for them all.

Of course, you can say that about white-collar jobs, too.

A co-worker's son went through diesel mechanic's school ( and accumulated significant debt doing so ), and couldn't find a job after...this was a couple of years ago, before the recession. Eventually he joined the Army instead. So I think you may be overestimating the advantages of blue-collar training and employment a bit.

[I_luv_saber]

Yes. Which is why we might try filling those unwanted jobs with legal immigrants.

Clearly a lot of people want to come here for a better life. I think we'd have better luck legally and culturally if we made it easier for the ones who would like to come legally. There's a ripe target for reform, if anyone is looking for one: immigration policy.

I agree with this 110%. I was just making the point that kicking out all the illegals and doing nothing for immigration reform won't accomplish much, I think. I have nothing against tough laws against illegal immigration if we streamline our horribly overcomplicated (and extremely expensive) immigration system (our bill to the government (no other costs) wound up being around $2k) and actually give people a fair shake for getting in. Especially work visas, which many from Mexico and Latin America are most interested in anyway.