Swine Flu/H1N1 and Summer Nationals

[Soberin]

Fort Worth independent school district has closed schools through May 8th.

[trafl926]

Thanks god for that one hospital in Greenland that never closes down, if anyone makes a vaccine it will be them!

[Dr Epee]

And of course the devastation of the Spanish flu should be put in perspective as well since even by the highest estimates it only had a 10% mortality rate.

If you consider that NYC has 8 million people and the infectivity of a typical flu epidemic is 25-30% (i.e. 25-30% of the population will get infected) then a morality rate of "only" 10% will get you 200,000 dead in NYC alone. While nobody's suggetsing that the death rate would be nearly that high now, it is something to think about. And imagine for a moment how gruesome it must have been in 1918.

[whtouche]

What's your source on this flu being particularly unpleasant?

Maybe he read the report that they found "Patient Zero", a 5 year old mexican boy with whom all this swine flu jazz apparently started. Of particular importance to the discussion of how unpleasant this flu is would be the part where the boy credits ice cream with his recovery..

[Inquartata]

The Spanish flu circumstances were very different.

Sure. No two cases are ever exact parallels in the real world.

Yes it killed a lot of people in the 20-30's range. But it's hard to call those people as having strong immune systems. For a lot of the casualties fo the Spanish flu, if they weren't injured at the front then they were malnurished back home.

I am not so sure. The malnourishment angle is just speculation, and I don't believe that any of the initial cases were amongst war wounded...the first recorded patient was a cook at Ft. Riley, Kansas. Not exactly a front-line position, cook...

Moreover, those caveats would not necessarily have applied to the many civilian deaths.


All of which begs the question: Has anyone been dreaming about Mother Abagail or the Dark Man yet?

[MyrddinsPrecint]

If you consider that NYC has 8 million people and the infectivity of a typical flu epidemic is 25-30% (i.e. 25-30% of the population will get infected) then a morality rate of "only" 10% will get you 200,000 dead in NYC alone. While nobody's suggetsing that the death rate would be nearly that high now, it is something to think about. And imagine for a moment how gruesome it must have been in 1918.

Yeah, but the estimate I heard about the mortality rate of the 1918 flu was 2.5%. That's still a large number-- more people dead from flu than WWI, and between the two, it was a devastating time. But if this flu isn't as bad as that flu, and we have better treatment/containment options....

[keith]

Yeah, but the estimate I heard about the mortality rate of the 1918 flu was 2.5%. That's still a large number-- more people dead from flu than WWI, and between the two, it was a devastating time. But if this flu isn't as bad as that flu, and we have better treatment/containment options....

You are quite right. Of course the last traumatic event for the american public had a death rate of 0.00001% (rounded).

As to this one is less deadly than that one - you are missing the point as to exactly why people get worried about influenza. Somewhere there is a little girl with a runny nose juggling chicken heads .

[Inquartata]

WE do, MP, but what about the rest of the world?

The worst civilian devastation from the 1918 pandemic was in poorer countries like India. That pattern is likely to be repeated.

And one of the mistakes this country made was relaxing after the first outbreak proved not to look much different from normal flu outbreaks. No preparations were made for its possible return, in worse form, in the fall. We were caught napping when it did. And already we're starting to see people in authority play this one down, with Mexican experts revising the number of deaths way down and others saying it looks like it may not be as virulent or as contagious as first feared, that maybe the worst is over...

[MyrddinsPrecint]

WE do, MP, but what about the rest of the world?

The worst civilian devastation from the 1918 pandemic was in poorer countries like India. That pattern is likely to be repeated.

And one of the mistakes this country made was relaxing after the first outbreak proved not to look much different from normal flu outbreaks. No preparations were made for its possible return, in worse form, in the fall. We were caught napping when it did. And already we're starting to see people in authority play this one down, with Mexican experts revising the number of deaths way down and others saying it looks like it may not be as virulent or as contagious as first feared, that maybe the worst is over...

Flu vaccine only gets designed, tested, and produced so fast. They're moving on it now. Whether to go into full production mode will be a decision they make sometime in the summer, when it will be more clear if it's still a concerning strain (elsewhere if not in the US). At *that* point, if it's decided that it shouldn't be folded into the normal flu vaccine and it shouldn't be produced as an additional vaccine either, but it's still floating around..... yes, then some alarm may be worthwhile.

The death numbers are down because the tests came back. These people died, they probably dies of the flu, they just didn't die from H1N1. Flu is dangerous, people. All flu. Not just swine flu, bird flu, or zebra flu. People die.

But they're also dying from cholera and malaria and infections associated with HIV. Do we need to be concerned? Yes. We need to study it carefully. We need to wash our hands and stay home if we're sick. We need to eat a well balanced diet so our bodies work well and fight off infections. If we're particularly sick, we need to see a doctor. But this is not exactly unusual. We should be washing our hands regularly all the time. We should be considerate of the people we're shaking hands with all the time.

Suddenly deciding we ought to wash our hands because it's suggested that not even 200 people in Mexico died is not terribly rational. Deciding washing your hands regularly is a good thing because people die of normal flu in the US all the time is a more rational idea. People suggesting that we ought to take enough Vitamin C to cause diarrhea usually just causes harm. People who claim that you will get sick if you get the flu vaccine is also harmful.

I'm a big proponent of fact based medicine and public health policy. I'm weird that way.

[Inquartata]

The "regular" flu does not usually kill otherwise healthy adults with good immune systems. The Spanish flu did, and this one has. Maybe that's for other reasons, and maybe not.

I'm not worrying, much less changing plans or routines...yet. But just as it doesn't do to be overly alarmist, it doesn't do to wave the possibility of pandemic away. One IS coming. Maybe it's not this one. Maybe it's not this century. But some day.

[hello?]

There's a World Cup in Texas as well, isn't there?

[Empty Wallet]

The timing and numbers are important as I finally get back to reading this thread. Been busy with the university briefings and trying to plan how the save the semesters of our study abroad students who have been recalled from Mexico.

The information we keep getting here is that the southern hemisphere is seen as at most immediate risk as it moves into the winter flu season. Then the northern hemisphere. The other aspect they are worried about is that this may be a first wave, with an even more virulent strain to come later.

This flu has been bad for those who caught it and did not get anti-virals in time. Tamiflu etc seems to work wonders.

The Spanish flu is always the touchstone, and a major reason public health throws up such tight responses. As with the Asian Flu and the Hong Kong Flu which each killed over 1 million.

A key aspect is that more and more people are travelling the world so quickly. It heightens the speed at which any of these diseases can spread -- and they spread through the re-cycled aircraft air.

Regular flu (not the I have a cold it must be the flu type) can be a very nasty disease. It does kill many people -- but often because they have been unable to take precautions beforehand or do not get the right treatment quickly enough symptoms. Some countries make flu shots avaible for free for people in high risk categories. My university offers free flu shots to all staff each year.

Over-reaction, I certainly hope so. Necessary precaution, most probably.

[epeemike81]

And in SHOCKING news, it turns out that the "swine flu" is, in fact... the flu:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday.

"What the epidemiologists are seeing now with this particular strain of U.N. is that the severity of the disease, the severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Monday as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of swine flu -- technically known as 2009 H1N1 virus -- topped 1,080.


http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/04/swine.flu.main/

-m

[hello?]

If they had called it the "June flu" or the "Daisy Flu," it would been different. Even the "Miss Piggy Flu" would have been an ok-thing-to-get. But "Swine flu?" Sounds deadly.

[Gav]

... One IS coming. Maybe it's not this one. Maybe it's not this century. But some day.

You can say that about just about anything.

I'll be dead... some day. If I keep saying it's today then I will eventually be right*. People will get a bored of hearing about it though.


* I hear James Randi does this to cock a snoot at the clairvoyance brigade.

[Inquartata]

And in SHOCKING news, it turns out that the "swine flu" is, in fact... the flu:

Yeah...good old Janet. The same lady who recently sought to shift focus from foreign jihadis to returning American combat veterans as the main terrorist threat...

Please do not take her as an authority on all that much, and certainly not on epidemiology.

Because, in still other SHOCKING news:


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090508/...swine_flu_hype

"The so-far mild swine flu outbreak has many people saying all the talk about a devastating global epidemic was just fear-mongering hype. But that's not how public health officials see it, calling complacency the thing that keeps them up at night."

You can say that about just about anything.

Yes. And I am.

I'll be dead... some day.

And those who go through life sublimely unconcerned about possible threats, waving them all off as hype and taking no precautions, are IMO likely to be exactly that sooner than those who stay cautious.

People will get a bored of hearing about it though.

And as we all know, boredom is EVER so much worse than death...

[oiuyt]

Athlete cancellations related to the H1N1 flu have caused the organizers to cancel the ME World Cup originally scheduled for June 5-6 in Caguas, Puerto Rico.

-B

[epeemike81]

"The so-far mild swine flu outbreak has many people saying all the talk about a devastating global epidemic was just fear-mongering hype. But that's not how public health officials see it, calling complacency the thing that keeps them up at night."

you'll note that the officials aren't denying that the swine flu is, in fact, mild. They're simply saying that the precautions they were taking weren't fear mongering.

-m

[noodle]

And in SHOCKING news, it turns out that the "swine flu" is, in fact... the flu:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The swine flu virus that has sparked fear and precautions worldwide appears to be no more dangerous than the regular flu virus that makes its rounds each year, U.S. officials said Monday.

"What the epidemiologists are seeing now with this particular strain of U.N. is that the severity of the disease, the severity of the flu -- how sick you get -- is not stronger than regular seasonal flu," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Monday as the worldwide number of confirmed cases of swine flu -- technically known as 2009 H1N1 virus -- topped 1,080.


http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/04/swine.flu.main/

-m

especially surprising when you consider the fact that the exact same thing happened several times in the past, with the exact same result.
http://tinyurl.com/c78vlo

[Inquartata]

Yes, it was so "mild" that it created "unusually strong symptoms":

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090509/...ivotal_moments

As early as February, people in the Mexican hamlet of La Gloria were suffering unusually strong flu symptoms. When officials arrived to investigate in mid-March, nearly half the 3,000 villagers came out seeking medical help. About 450 were diagnosed with acute respiratory infections and given antibiotics.

.......

"We've been given an opportunity to take a look at this before it really got bad, and we need to," said Dr. Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, a prominent pandemic flu specialist. "We better damn well do it now because one day we are going to really be in it for more than a week. If it's not this virus, there will still be another one."

For this virus, the coming months will bring a series of big decisions: Do manufacturers start brewing millions of swine flu vaccine doses? Will they be stockpiled unless the new flu returns or given along with or soon after regular flu shots? Will rich countries share enough with the developing world? Who gets in line first — the younger people that this strain so far seems to target or the elderly who usually are flu's most vulnerable?

"You may only have one chance to get out ahead of it," Dr. Richard Besser, acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told The Associated Press. "It's important for people to understand that all of these decisions will need to be made with incomplete science."

Hmm, some of that sounds like what I was saying earlier...only now it's an actual doctor, head of the CDC, saying it...

He should probably have consulted Gav before he did so.