McCain's VP

[KidLazy]

McCain has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
She is 44! Three years younger than Obama!

So far McCain camp criticizes Obama the most is that Obama is too young and too inexperince (foreign policy, defense matters, etc.), yet he picks someone who is even younger and with even less experince on those issues (at least Obama travels and talks to leaders, she stays in Alaska mostly).

Where is the logic? Has McCain camp gone nuts?


*If Obama hires me, I would have a field day on this...

[magic_moose]

Well, let's add it up:

Vetted: Under investigation by her own legislature

Experience:
Been gov of a tiny state for a bit
Was part time mayor of a town of 6000 before that
Really young

Appealing candidate:
Beauty contestant
Woman
Creationist
Anti-abortion
Family values - Husband and 5 kids including an infant at home

Sounds perfect?
There must be something here, but I sure don't see it.
I don't see how this attracts the Independents he needs to win.

[LTranter]

Originally Posted by magic_moose

W
Been gov of a tiny state for a bit

Sounds perfect

Ummm do you know how big Alaska is??

I think it is a semi-smart move to try to gain those who were Hilary's camp. Okay, so maybe not the first female President, but the first female VP. On that same front he crashes Obama's first black President because a win either way will be historic. That said, I'm still not sure why it was THIS woman.

L

[Philistine]

Apparently, the VP picks have shown the importance of states with 3 electoral votes....

And confirmed McCain's preference for younger women....



--Philistine

[Philistine]

But seriously--interesting pick. I know next to nothing about her.

I think it is a milestone that the country will have either a black president or a female vice-president.

--Philistine

[magic_moose]

Originally Posted by LTranter

Ummm do you know how big Alaska is??

L

I was referring to population.

683,478 people.

It ranks 47th in state population.
It has 0.22% of the US population.

You don't govern square miles or bears, you govern people.
.

[D+F+P=Hadouken!]

Female president if you wait a year...

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!


My take:

McCain went by the balance metric. The GOP ticket is now balanced by:
1. Gender
2. Age
3. North-South
4. Legislative-Executive branch

If her wikipedia entry is anything to go by, she should shore up the conservative base. It appears that the McCain team thinks that identity politics are important to voters. Considering the Dem primary votes for African-American males vs. Caucasian females, I would think that they are doing the rational call.

Another observation:
This time around, no one on the major party tickets have any pretense of representing the south. The Bush candidates have portrayed themselves as Texans, and by extension southerners. If you count them in as representing the south, then this will be the first time since 72 since no one of the major tickets (then, Nixon/Agnew vs. McGovern/Shriver) had any real claim on representing the south. Wonder how Caucasian southerners will take that, and what it will do to the voter turnout there.


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!

Originally Posted by magic_moose

Appealing candidate:
Beauty contestant
Woman
Creationist
Anti-abortion
Family values - Husband and 5 kids including an infant at home

Sounds perfect?
There must be something here, but I sure don't see it.
I don't see how this attracts the Independents he needs to win.

My guess is that McCain is not going for the independent vote, but for the female vote. If one assumes that there a significant proportion of the voting females vote more for their own gender, rather than Democrat values per se, this may be the magic pill which flips the election. Perfectly rational decision if that voter segment is large enough.

As an added benefit, there is no obvious counter available to the Dem ticket. What are they to do in order to woo back voters who value a female on the ticket over all else? Field Hillary as a high-profile election worker? Would only serve to highlight divisions within the democrats, and might well rub a lot of female voters who previously were campaigning for her the wrong way.

If this works out for the GOP, it also has a long-term benefit. The fallout from a lost election will create long-term bad blood between African-Americans and females, traditionally strong democrat voter bases. That discord can then be used by the 2012 (and 2016, and...) GOP campaigns.

I will be reading up a lot on this, heading off to Slate now.


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[damianip]

Oooooh....

Politics.

This kind of surprised me too. I read today that they were going after the disaffected Hillary supporters with this choice.

Doesn't make any sense to me.

However:

Let's consider those qualifications:

Sarah Palin

• Point guard and captain of her HS basketball team
• Head of her high school chapter of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes
• 1984 Winner of the Miss Wasilla Pageant
• 1984 Runner-up in the Miss Alaska Pageant
• 1984 Winner of Miss Congeniality Award
• Degree in Journalism from University of Idaho, minor in Poli-Sci
• Sports reporter for an Alaskan TV station
• City Council Wasilla, AK - Current population approximately 8,400
• Mayor Wasilla, AK - Current population approximately 8,400
• Governor of Alaska - 2006 population approximately 670,000
  • Alaska: only 2 other states have lower populations.
  • Alaska: Lowest population density in the US
  • Alaska: comprising .22% of the US population.
  • Alaska: a population density lower than Mongolia. In fact, only two countries have lower population densities - Greenland and the Falkland islands, neither of which are even real countries anyway (colonies of European imperialism).
  • Alaska: there are 19 cities in the US with a greater population.
• National Rifle Association Lifetime Member
• Rotary International Honorary Member
• Rabidly pro-life
• Husband works for the oil companies

Yeah, that'll work.

Paolo

[Grimaldi]

Before even discussing the VP candidate herself, the comparison of managing the release of the VP name between Obama and McCain is interesting, and summed up pretty well in this article. Bottom line, McCain kept suspense and speculation high for some time, drawing media attention away from reporting on Obama's speech, while Obama raised hopes with his promises of a text announcement, and then flubbed it by leaking the decision early and sending the text out a 3am (or something).

As for the candidate herself...she's certainly an interesting pick, and I think she'll add to McCain's attempts to portray himself as a "maverick". She's earned a reputation for getting things accomplished in her short tenure in Alaska, is pretty conservative overall, but has broken with the party on a few issues, which may help appeal to moderate.

Originally Posted by wikipedia

Highlights of Governor Palin's tenure include a successful push for an ethics bill, and also shelving pork-barrel projects supported by fellow Republicans. After federal funding for the Gravina Island Bridge project that had become a nationwide symbol of wasteful earmark spending was lost, Palin decided against filling the over $200 million gap with state money.[10][11] "Alaska needs to be self-sufficient, she says, instead of relying heavily on 'federal dollars,' as the state does today."[12]

She has challenged the state's Republican leaders, helping to launch a campaign by Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell to unseat U.S. Congressman Don Young[13] and publicly challenging Senator Ted Stevens to come clean about the federal investigation into his financial dealings.[10]

I think a record like that could be sold pretty successfully to the public as an actual example of positive change, instead of just talking about accomplishing it.

Let's look at some of the critiques:

Originally Posted by magic_moose

Vetted: Under investigation by her own legislature

Obviously this raises red flags, but you've got to believe the vetting process has determined there's no threat in it. She fired someone she has complete authority to fire, and there are allegations (that can never be proved) that it may have been done for personal reasons? Meh...I don't think it'll go anywhere.

Let's look at wiki again:

Originally Posted by wiki

Monegan alleged shortly after his dismissal that it may have been partly due to his reluctance to fire an Alaska State Trooper, Mike Wooten, who had been involved in a divorce and child custody battle with Palin's sister, Molly McCann.[44] In 2006, before Palin was governor, Wooten was briefly suspended for ten days for threatening to kill McCann's (and Palin's) father, tasering his 11-year-old stepson (at the stepson's request), and violating game laws. After a union protest, the suspension was reduced to five days.[45]

Even if it is true, it looks good to me...she's portraying herself as someone who gets things done and cleans up corruption, and taking on a union strong-arming to keep a policeman who issues death threats, breaks the law and tasers children isn't going to hurt her much.

Originally Posted by magic_moose

Experience:
Been gov of a tiny state for a bit
Was part time mayor of a town of 6000 before that
Really young

Democrats are going to have to be really careful on this. She's the VP, not the top spot, and any attempts to portray her as unready automatically bring Obama to mind, too. Barack has served at the Federal level (senate) only slightly longer than Palin has been a governor, and Palin easily has more accomplishments to show during this timeframe.

Originally Posted by magic_moose

Appealing candidate:
Beauty contestant
Woman
Creationist
Anti-abortion
Family values - Husband and 5 kids including an infant at home

Uh...I think you're focusing a bit too much on the superficial here. There's a lot here that will energize the Republican base (NRA, religion) and a lot that will appeal to moderates as well (drilling, anti-corruption efforts against Alaskan Republicans).

Besides, Palin will have an easier time passing herself as a regular American than Obama or Biden. Not Ivy League, has held some fairly menial jobs and worked her way up...that's a story people can relate to.

Originally Posted by magic_moose

Sounds perfect?
There must be something here, but I sure don't see it.
I don't see how this attracts the Independents he needs to win.

Not perfect, but a good gamble. She also tempts the Democrats to attack her on certain things that will ultimately make them look worse, either by comparison (again, hitting her on experience continues to bring up Obama's lack thereof) or by countering their standard talking points (I'm already reading things about "how could she run for VP while taking care of a young child"?). Hitting her on something like that, that goes against the progressive/feminine mantra, could hurt the Democrats, too.

Originally Posted by KidLazy

McCain has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.
She is 44! Three years younger than Obama!

Astute observation. Most of the criticism towards Obama has been about his lack of experince, not really his age.

Originally Posted by KidLazy

So far McCain camp criticizes Obama the most is that Obama is too young and too inexperince (foreign policy, defense matters, etc.), yet he picks someone who is even younger and with even less experince on those issues (at least Obama travels and talks to leaders, she stays in Alaska mostly).

Again, she's the VP nominee, not the top. Sure, it could be an issue, but I don't think the Dems dare tread there too much. As for experience, she's the only candidate of the bunch with any executive experience, and I'd have to imagine a State like Alaska demands a decent amount of coordination with Canada, which easily gives her more practical diplomatic experience than Obama's occasional visits.

Originally Posted by Philistine

Apparently, the VP picks have shown the importance of states with 3 electoral votes....

Actually, I think this is a good thing. Gore helped show that the VP slot really has minimal impact on voters from a home state, and if McCain wants to keep up his "maverick" image, why pick the nominee everyone expects, for the same old reasons that don't ever really work?

This choice is pretty shrewd, and could keep a lot of media attention and water cooler talk on the Republicans, maybe up until the convention. I think that will only help the GOP ticket in the polls.

[Grimaldi]

Originally Posted by damianip

Sarah Palin

• Governor of Alaska - 2006 population approximately 670,000
  • Alaska: only 2 other states have lower populations.
  • Alaska: Lowest population density in the US
  • Alaska: comprising .22% of the US population.
  • Alaska: a population density lower than Mongolia. In fact, only two countries have lower population densities - Greenland and the Falkland islands, neither of which are even real countries anyway (colonies of European imperialism).
  • Alaska: there are 19 cities in the US with a greater population.
• National Rifle Association Lifetime Member
• Rotary International Honorary Member
• Rabidly pro-life
• Husband works for the oil companies

Yeah, that'll work.

Dude, do you have any idea how complicated it is to govern a state, let alone one as large, and with as many unique situations, as Alaska? She's got all sorts of oddball natural resources, a foreign boundary (and Russia's close, too), a large and unique native population with special considerations...her job is 10x as demanding as a freshman senator's. I mean, list some key accomplishments from Obama's Senate term.....key bills he authored, committee chairmanships he's held, anything like that will do fine.

As for the rest of the list, it's largely irrelevant.

[migopod]

I was surprised McCain didn't disclose his VP choice by Pony Express or carrier pigeon.

[KidLazy]

Originally Posted by Grimaldi

Again, she's the VP nominee, not the top. Sure, it could be an issue, but I don't think the Dems dare tread there too much. As for experience, she's the only candidate of the bunch with any executive experience, and I'd have to imagine a State like Alaska demands a decent amount of coordination with Canada, which easily gives her more practical diplomatic experience than Obama's occasional visits.

If elected, she will be the President-In-Waiting. If too young and too inexperience is bad, then why would even younger and even less experience be good? If you think a 5 years B fencer won't have a good result in Div1 NAC, what makes you think a two year E could do better? What's wrong with McCain's logic?

[KidLazy]

Originally Posted by PeterGustafsson

*Something about the South, Clinton, and women voters*

Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

I don't think it is fair to think Hillary = women voters. She got there because she is someone, not because she is a woman.

These are the results from the primary,

Let's look at the South,

out of all MALE voters...
VA--- -------Hillary 39%, Obama 60%
N. Carolina---Hillary 39%, Obama 58%
S. Carolina---Hillary 23%, Obama 54%
Georgia------Hillary 27%, Obama 70%
FL-----------Hillary 42%, Obama 38%
Tennessee---Hillary 47%, Obama 44%
Alabama-----Hillary 41%, Obama 57%
Mississippi---Hillary 38%, Obama 61%
Louisiana----Hillary 33%, Obama 54%

out of all FEMALE voters...
VA--- -------Hillary 39%, Obama 60%
N. Carolina---Hillary 43%, Obama 55%
S. Carolina---Hillary 30%, Obama 54%
Georgia------Hillary 33%, Obama 65%
FL-----------Hillary 54%, Obama 31%
Tennessee---Hillary 58%, Obama 38%
Alabama-----Hillary 41%, Obama 56%
Mississippi---Hillary 39%, Obama 58%
Louisiana----Hillary 38%, Obama 58%

So... Attarcting female voters and/or Southern votes by picking a unknown woman?
The best woman lost the female votes in most Southern states...

The idea of women would vote for a woman regardless of issues is greatly overestimated, and unfair to women everywhere.

[keith]

Originally Posted by Grimaldi

As for the rest of the list, it's largely irrelevant.

Well I think you were missing the point that if the idea was to attract disaffected Hilary voters it is hard to see where exactly her position match with that aim.

Unless, of course, the republicans are treating women as a monolithic bloc who will vote on gender regardless of policy positions.

[Grimaldi]

Originally Posted by KidLazy

If elected, she will be the President-In-Waiting. If too young and too inexperience is bad, then why would even younger and even less experience be good? If you think a 5 years B fencer won't have a good result in Div1 NAC, what makes you think a two year E could do better? What's wrong with McCain's logic?

His logic is working fine. Again, while her government experience is as limited as Obama's, it's focused on executive branch positions (mayor, governor), while Obama's isn't. I think McCain picked her as a dare, as much as anything else...please, PLEASE make experience the defining issue of this campaign, because it'll hurt the democrats more.

Other than that, she's a strong conservative with a bit of a maverick streak. Being female certainly gives the McCain campaign something "historic" to offer, too. Unfortunately, I think there are some voters out there that are shallow enough to vote for someone based off of race or gender (or against), and Obama has already played-up the significance of electing him to send a message and make history...so McCain wants to take away from that being a Democrat-only issue.