McCain's VP

[KidLazy]

Latest National Polls (9/25) show

Gallup Obama 46, McCain 46, Tie
Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 46, Obama +3
Hotline/FD Obama 47, McCain 43, Obama +4

Obama/Biden 228, McCain/Palin 174, Toss up 136.



Now, here is something interesting...

All these polls were conducted by calling people... on LANDLINES ONLY.
Currtently 16% of households in the US are cell-phone only.
Most cell-only users are young people.
Young people (under 30) with only cell phones, prefer Democrat.
I think the election results will be, in favor of Obama, much wider than these polls are predicting.

[Philistine]

{snip}All these polls were conducted by calling people... on LANDLINES ONLY.
Currtently 16% of households in the US are cell-phone only.

Not all of them

Most cell-only users are young people.
Young people (under 30) with only cell phones, prefer Democrat.
I think the election results will be, in favor of Obama, much wider than these polls are predicting.

Here is one study that says it's not much of an issue.

Personally, I suspect that there's more uncertainly because many people just don't respond to telephone surveys any more--I'm certainly much much less likely to take any telephone survey than I was ten or 15 years ago or so, just because of the ubiquity of caller ID/answering machines and the overkill of the telephone solicitation market. But that's really more of a gut feeling of mine.

--Philistine

[academe]

Why is it when I hear Sarah Palin in an interview, all I hear is this?

[Schiavona]

Because you view things fairly and objectivly, instead of through a truck load of prejudice?

[Shi no Tenshi]

Fair and objective analysis of Palin's interview with Couric? Palin sucked, looked like a puppet, and it only served to show how far in over her head she is. Republicans who are not looking at it through red-tinted glasses are saying she needs to not do any more interviews, because unless they are softballs from the useless Sean Hannity, she just looks worse.

[Grimaldi]

Latest National Polls (9/25) show

Gallup Obama 46, McCain 46, Tie
Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 46, Obama +3
Hotline/FD Obama 47, McCain 43, Obama +4

Obama/Biden 228, McCain/Palin 174, Toss up 136.



Now, here is something interesting...

All these polls were conducted by calling people... on LANDLINES ONLY.
Currtently 16% of households in the US are cell-phone only.
Most cell-only users are young people.
Young people (under 30) with only cell phones, prefer Democrat.
I think the election results will be, in favor of Obama, much wider than these polls are predicting.

Not only do some of those polls include cell phones (as Philistine noted), I doubt any of them track absentee ballots from people overseas...as in, the tons of military personnel and contractors serving in Iraq. I can tell you which way the majority of them are going to vote, and even though their overall impact will be fairly small, in a close election, that may be all it takes to make a significant difference.

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!

Not only do some of those polls include cell phones (as Philistine noted), I doubt any of them track absentee ballots from people overseas...as in, the tons of military personnel and contractors serving in Iraq. I can tell you which way the majority of them are going to vote, and even though their overall impact will be fairly small, in a close election, that may be all it takes to make a significant difference.

There is another overseas demographic - civilian Americans living in various European countries. (I am one of them, dual citizen.) For AFAIK the first time, this group was this year included in the democratic nomination. Obama completely clobbered Clinton among this group. Compared to the militaries, this group is probably less likely to register&vote, but more likely to come from swing states. I have seen figures stating that among those serving in the US. army, people from safe-red states are highly overrepresented. Civilians in Europe, OTOH, tend to come from academic backgrounds. Many of them have married Europeans, and a significant proportion of them live in Europe because they like the European way of life better than living in USA.

Which candidate do you think those are going to mostly vote for?


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[pigeonmeister]

"We have trade missions back and forth," Palin told Couric. "We, we do, it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the airspace of the United States of America, where, where do they go? It's Alaska."

Yes, Sarah, Putin rears his head and comes in US airspace....

America- please don't do it!

[Schiavona]

During the Soviet Era it was common for Russian aircraft to fly into US airspace over Alaska, sometimes as far as Fairbanks. Recently, they've started doing it again. Why? Ask Putin.

[pigeonmeister]

You're wrong.

“Russian incursions near Alaskan airspace and inside the air defense identification zone have occurred,” a McCain campaign spokesperson told CBS News. “When they do, Governor Palin is briefed on them by the Adjutant General of the Alaska National Guard. U.S Air Force fighters have been scrambled repeatedly in response to Russian actions.

[KidLazy]

I think this is really funny.

In a poll released by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Alaskans give Joe Biden a 43 percent to 37 percent edge over Palin when asked who is prepared to be president and a 44 to 32 edge on preparedness to handle a world crisis.

[Philistine]

I think this is really funny.

Do you have a link?

Also, I wonder if the poll asks who is "better prepared" to be president or simply asks if they are prepared.

--Philistine

[KidLazy]

Do you have a link?

Also, I wonder if the poll asks who is "better prepared" to be president or simply asks if they are prepared.

--Philistine

That was from yesterday's newspaper (yeah, paper ) I just read.

Here is the link to Fairleight Dickinson Univerity's poll comparing the two states; Delaware and Alaska (including tabular results, and survey details)

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/veepstakes/

When it comes to the “background and experience to be a good president,” Alaskans concede: They give the edge to Biden 43%-37%, while Delawareans agree 69%-18%. Likewise, Alaskan voters say Biden is “better equipped to handle an unexpected international crisis” (44%-32%), and Delawareans agree 73%-14%.

[Schiavona]

You're wrong.

“Russian incursions near Alaskan airspace and inside the air defense identification zone have occurred,” a McCain campaign spokesperson told CBS News. “When they do, Governor Palin is briefed on them by the Adjutant General of the Alaska National Guard. U.S Air Force fighters have been scrambled repeatedly in response to Russian actions.

Ah, you must be right! Official news releases never spin things. All I have to go on are stories from guys who work on the airbase. Oh well

After re-reading my post, I can see that I wasn't as clear as I could have been. I didn't mean to imply that the Russians were overflying Fairbanks, but that they were in Alaskan/American airspace. That's what I was told. In, not near

[Schiavona]

That was from yesterday's newspaper (yeah, paper ) I just read.

Here is the link to Fairleight Dickinson Univerity's poll comparing the two states; Delaware and Alaska (including tabular results, and survey details)

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/veepstakes/

I think it's funny too. Nobody asked me.

How do I know they asked anybody?

[pigeonmeister]

Ah, you must be right! Official news releases never spin things. All I have to go on are stories from guys who work on the airbase. Oh well

I see they are experimenting with sarcasm in Alaska.

Shall I have a go...

How naive of me. I must remember that the only reliable information comes from random people on the internet informed, presumably over a few pints, by other random people- whose grasp of the facts is beyond reproach. Consider me chastened in the face of such irrefutable evidence.

I mean, it's not like there are people in the US, perhaps including a certain campaign team, who would have a lot to gain from a foreign diplomatic crisis with Russia and who took a very confrontational stance in the recent crisis in Georgia. I'm sure they would want to hush that up...

[Lemonaide]

You guys are sour grapes. You should be happy to see a female and a older guy take the lead, maybe it'll cool things down. I don't like all the tension and hype that Obama has been bringing - there's been an air of hysteria that looks and sounds unhealthy. I was very impressed with the debate yesterday. I think the media was very surprised. The only name that Obama could pronouce was the Iranian President, while, interestingly, McCain has the ability to not only speak clearly, but carefully and with consideration, he's really a gentleman all the way, I think McCain is very able to take the lead. He's friendly with the right people, wary of Putim; and rattled off the names, titles and interests of many other world leaders besides the dreadfoily Uncle Al. Our biggest mistake these past several years has been focusing totally on one area and we missed the boat entirely on what was happening in Georgia. It was no mistake that those people were attacked during the Olympics, but it fell flat. I like little Palin, I think she can do a good job. Take a look at her detractors will you, I mean, consider the source!

[lindajdunn]

You guys are sour grapes. You should be happy to see a female and a older guy take the lead, maybe it'll cool things down. I don't like all the tension and hype that Obama has been bringing - there's been an air of hysteria that looks and sounds unhealthy. I was very impressed with the debate yesterday. I think the media was very surprised. The only name that Obama could pronouce was the Iranian President, while, interestingly, McCain has the ability to not only speak clearly, but carefully and with consideration, he's really a gentleman all the way, I think McCain is very able to take the lead. He's friendly with the right people, wary of Putim; and rattled off the names, titles and interests of many other world leaders besides the dreadfoily Uncle Al. Our biggest mistake these past several years has been focusing totally on one area and we missed the boat entirely on what was happening in Georgia. It was no mistake that those people were attacked during the Olympics, but it fell flat. I like little Palin, I think she can do a good job. Take a look at her detractors will you, I mean, consider the source!

I suggest you take a look at factcheck.org

Not only did McCain misname one of the world leaders, he said earmarks had tripled when they had, in fact, decreased sharply.

Of course, both candidates made mistakes.

I think Palin is attractive, confident, and clearly in over her head and I place full blame for this upon McCain and his managers. By putting her inside a cone of silence except for when they want to take her out for display and fundraising purposes (talk about sexism!), they've not given her a chance to develop the ability to deal effectively with the media. And then they toss her to the wolves, without a rifle, and complain that she didn't strangle the wolves with her bare hands.

She's done debates before and she is cunning, but if they don't give her sufficient exposure and skill-building opportunities, then the cone of silence might be best until post-election and which time McCain (if he is true to form) would stuff her into some distant office and have her do almost nothing.

This is not how the second female VP candidate should be treated.

I do not support Palin but I absolutely detest how the McCain people are using her.

[KidLazy]

More funny stuff I read...

“I think she has pretty thoroughly — and probably irretrievably — proven that she is not up to the job of being president of the United States,” David Frum, a former speechwriter for President Bush who is now a conservative columnist, said in an interview.

“I think the Katie Couric interview shows that she needs to be briefed more on certain aspects,” said Jim Greer, the Republican chairman in Florida. “She continues to be viewed very positively by the base of the party, but she needs to demonstrate that she’s got the knowledge and ability to be president should the need arise.”

A number of conservative columnists and thinkers have publicly turned against her, or criticized Mr. McCain for choosing her, including George Will, David Brooks and Kathleen Parker, who wrote a column entitled “She’s Out of Her League” for the National Review Online.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26952469

[KidLazy]

My Prediction

Obama wins the election
Elec. Vote 273+
Pop. Vote 9%+

Then again, I have already predicted he will be a two-term President, back in Feb. 6th, when Hillary was leading.