Biggest medalist/top 4 seeded as underdog

[JEC]

For the Top 8, the table should have been: 1 vs 8, 4 vs 5, 3 vs 6 and 2 vs 7.
For the Top 4, the table should have been: 1 vs 4 and 3 vs 2.

WOMEN's SABRE

Women's Sabre - TOP 8

1. JACOBSON, Sada – United States - d. 15-11
25. KHOMROVA, Olena – Ukraine

5. VELIKAYA, Sofiya – Russian Fed. – d. 15-9
4. TAN, Xue – China

6. ZAGUNIS, Mariel – United States – d. 15-9
14. BAO, Yingying – China

2. WARD Becca – United States – d. 15-14
26. BESBES Azza Tunisia

We have the expected # 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 seed.

+ 47 (0, +17, 0, 0, +11, 0, +19)

Women's Sabre - TOP 4

1. JACOBSON, Sada – United States - d. 15-11
5. VELIKAYA, Sofiya – Russian Fed.

6. ZAGUNIS, Mariel – United States – d. 15-9
2. WARD Becca – United States

We now have a much more predictive field with expected # 1 and 2, but only # 5 and 6 (instead of 4 and 3).

+4 (0, +1, +3, 0)


Women's Saber Medals

Gold - 6. Zagunis, Mariel
Silver - 1. Jacobson, Sada
Bronze - 2. Ward, Becca

Instead of # 1, 2 and 3 seeds, we got # 6, 1 and 2.
+3 (+5, -1, -1)

[JEC]

Now, it is the turn for Men's Epee

Men's Epee - TOP 8

16. ABAJO Jose Luis - Spain d. 14-13
9. CONFALONIERI Diego - Italy

4. TAGLIARIOL Matteo - Italy d. 15-11
12. VERWIJLEN Bas - Netherlands

27. JEANNET Fabrice - France d. 15-11
3. JIN SUN Jung - Korea

15. BOCZKO Gabor - Hungary d. 15-8
7. ZAWROTNIAK Radoslaw - Poland

We have # 3, 4 and 7. The three biggest underdogs were Fabrice Jeannet, Jose Luis Abajo, and Gabor Boczko.

+57 (+15, +1, 0, +7, 0, +21, +13, 0)

Men's Epee - TOP 4

16. ABAJO Jose Luis - Spain vs
4. TAGLIARIOL Matteo - Italy

27. JEANNET Fabrice - France vs
15. BOCZKO Gabor - Hungary

We currently have only the #4 Matteo Tagliariol in the top 4, the other 3 are the underdogs Jeannet (not really, but statistically), Abajo and Boczko.

+49 (+15, 0, +21, +13)

Men's Epee Medalists

GOLD - 4. TAGLIARIOL Matteo - Italy
SILVER - 27. JEANNET Fabrice - France
BRONZE - 16. ABAJO Jose Luis - Spain

Instead of # 1, 2 and 3 seeds, we got 4, 27 and 16.

+41 (+3, +25, +13)


At least compared to Women's Saber, Men's Epee has more frequent surprises. Keep in mind that given the DE format of the Olympics with protected/byes for high seeds and a limited field of competition (as compared to World Championships or Cups), analyzing top 16 is not going to provides us with as valid information as doing the same in a WC event. Furthermore, examining TOP 4 results is probably more valid because it requires at least 2 and often 3 bouts prior to that round.

[fencerbill]

Originally Posted by JEC

At least compared to Women's Saber, Men's Epee has more frequent surprises. Keep in mind that given the DE format of the Olympics with protected/byes for high seeds and a limited field of competition (as compared to World Championships or Cups), analyzing top 16 is not going to provides us with as valid information as doing the same in a WC event. Furthermore, examining TOP 4 results is probably more valid because it requires at least 2 and often 3 bouts prior to that round.

A bye in the first round is not necessarily a benefit. Seems to happen most in Epee.

[JEC]

Originally Posted by fencerbill

A bye in the first round is not necessarily a benefit. Seems to happen most in Epee.

First assertion. I don't agree.

First round not necessarily a benefit. You can not lose to a bye. For events with round of 64, byes were given to the majority of high seeds. The worse they could do, typically, is to have final placement +1 or +2 from 16 (i.e.: 17 or 18). Analyzing top 16 is possible to be informative for individual events with team events, but useless for those without team events (1st round is 32- protected 6-7 get byes, thus they can't be upset to be in the round of 16).

Second assertion. I don't agree. See data: it is pretty even no weapon dependant. I don't know why there are a few no shows. Perhaps, late injuries or doping?

Individual events with Team events - First event is round of 64 with top 23-25 getting byes.
Men's Epee: 41 fencers (38 + 3 China) - top 23 get a bye
Men's Sabre: 40 fencers (37 + 3 China) - top 24 get a bye
Women's Foil: 41 fencers (38 + 3 China) - top 23 get a bye
Women's Sabre: 39 fencers (36 + 3 China) - top 25 get a bye

Individual events without Team events - First event is round of 32 with top 6-7 getting byes.
Men's Foil: 26 fencers (24 + 2 China) - top 6 get a bye
Women's Epee: 25 fencers (23 + 2 China) - top 7 get a bye

[fencerbill]

I will elaborate. A fencer who has won in the incomplete round then fences his second bout, a little more warmed up and perhaps with less jitters. After all, this is the Olympics.

Fencers who had a bye in the first round may have warmed up with other team mates who then went on to fence right away. But the bye fencers sit around, liable to cool off too much and perhaps stiffen up. Then have to fence someone 20 minutes or so after their first bout and win. A slow start and they can get too far behind to catch up.

This is an impression I have developed since I started fencing in 1953. I have no data to support it, it is just a conjecture.

It takes a specific preparation to minimize this possibility. Perhaps not starting to warm up at the same time as the fencers who do fence in the incomplete round. Or having a non-participating training partner to be able to peak the preparation WHILE the incomplete round is being fenced.

I am sure coaches are aware of these possibilities. But a coach who has to split his attention between fencers in the incomplete round and those whose first bout is in the next round must depend on the fencers to have their peak preparation at the right time.

So we have a fencer such as Fabrice Jeannet who won his incomplete round bout by less than 5 touches going up against Wes Kelsey. Jeannet has a poor seed which is not consistent with his average results over several years and Kelsey, whose preparation has been questioned by multiple posters, is here without a national coach.

Should an upset be a total surprise? It is my further impression that this type of upset is more likely to happen in Epee than in Foil or Sabre. Epee is the weapon where we are likely to see the unusual fencer whose first earned classification is an A.

[JEC]

Originally Posted by fencerbill

I will elaborate. A fencer who has won in the incomplete round then fences his second bout, a little more warmed up and perhaps with less jitters. After all, this is the Olympics.

Agree

Originally Posted by fencerbill

Fencers who had a bye in the first round may have warmed up with other team mates who then went on to fence right away. But the bye fencers sit around, liable to cool off too much and perhaps stiffen up. Then have to fence someone 20 minutes or so after their first bout and win. A slow start and they can get too far behind to catch up.
...
Perhaps not starting to warm up at the same time as the fencers who do fence in the incomplete round. Or having a non-participating training partner to be able to peak the preparation WHILE the incomplete round is being fenced. I am sure coaches are aware of these possibilities.

Agree. They brought training partners for that reason. Coaches are aware of this.

Originally Posted by fencerbill

So we have a fencer such as Fabrice Jeannet who won his incomplete round bout by less than 5 touches going up against Wes Kelsey. Jeannet has a poor seed which is not consistent with his average results over several years and Kelsey, whose preparation has been questioned by multiple posters, is here without a national coach.

F. Jeannet was 14-14 to Katchurian. It could easily have gone either way. Fabrice did not fence well this season. Had poor results, while his older brother Jerome improved and became more consistent. Jerome lost to Abajo, who was very hot today, but Jose Luis is also an experienced fencer. Kelsey got a really bad seed based on style of fencing (and prior season results). He has never beaten Fabrice in DE. Kelsey was coached there by Korfanty. He told him to fence more aggressively while pulling a slight larger distance. It worked for a while. He was 13-11 when a touch after passing was disallowed. After that he had only 30 sec. left to make up 2 touches. He pressed and pressed to the end of the strip and that is where Fabrice excels, as he is ahead, has thin arm (target) and athleticism for a long lunge/fleche. Seth's footwork is not as fluid as Fabrice. But there is also a reason that he was seeded # 6 in the Olympics.

Originally Posted by fencerbill

Should an upset be a total surprise? It is my further impression that this type of upset is more likely to happen in Epee than in Foil or Sabre. Epee is the weapon where we are likely to see the unusual fencer whose first earned classification is an A.

Ratings again.... You need to be very good to get an A, not just lucky.
The reason for less certainty of outcome in Epee is that doubles count. The equivalent of an Epee bout for Foil or Saber is a 5-7 touch bout. As you know, it is easier to win in a poule bout than in DE.

[telkanuru]

I'm pretty much with you until the last point. I know some terrible As. Not only that, but I'd argue that epee the most punishing of mistakes, and most subject to issues due to stylistic quirks. I also can't remember the last DE I had with 8-10 double touches. 4-5 maybe.

I personally prefer to not have a bye, and to have a seed around (+/- 2) of 10 or 20 in the L32.