Russia and Georgia... ZOMG

[Neinteen]

epic right?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe...tia/index.html

Predictions... bets perhaps? I might lose a lot on olympic betting, need some backup.

[OROD]

I predict there'll be a lot of talking, but no one will do much about it. However, I dont think Russia will go all the way and completely invade Georgia. That would surely be economic suicide for them.

.

[Inquartata]

I predict that the price of oil will soon skyrocket again.

[Grimaldi]

Should be interesting to see what NATO/US does. If Russia plays its cards right and limits its activities, it could probably grab a chunk of Georgia and get away with it (or set up a puppet state). I don't think the UN or anyone else has the guts to call Russia's bluff by dedicating military forces to the region if Russia limits its activity soon.

If Russia's goals are more wide ranging, however, things could get interesting. There are oil supplies at stake, which gets everyone's interest, and while Russia is a superpower in many ways, it's not what it used to be. If Russia continues to push into Georgia, and Western nations don't commit military forces to stop them, it will set a very dangerous precedent.

I think the bigger question is, if Western nations do deploy forces to Georgia relatively soon, will Russian forces continue to attack and harm them? The only nation with the guts to put troops there is the US, but with the Army spread thin, I don't know if the president will pull the trigger. I don't think Russia is willing to engage US/NATO forces, and would at least cease attacks if US/NATO forces entered the area.

Should be interesting to see what happens.

[Zilverzmurfen]

Originally Posted by Grimaldi

There are oil supplies at stake, which gets everyone's interest...

Originally Posted by Grimaldi

The only nation with the guts to put troops there is the US...

Last I heard your troops are there already.

[Epee_Pox]

Originally Posted by OROD

I dont think Russia will go all the way and completely invade Georgia.

Bzz. Sorry, wrong answer. Thank you for playing.

[keith]

Originally Posted by Epee_Pox

Bzz. Sorry, wrong answer. Thank you for playing.

Indeed, after all the rhetoric I guess we now get to find out what appeasement really means.

[Epee_Pox]

I thought it meant "letting an aggressor have its way, in the hope that it will leave you alone."

And I am woefully uninformed about what's been going on in Georgia and why. (This is what I get for being away from civilization for a week.) Has there in fact been appeasement here?

[keith]

Originally Posted by Epee_Pox

I thought it meant "letting an aggressor have its way, in the hope that it will leave you alone."

Indeed. Although recent usage has mainly been mindless sloganing the more precise definition is likely to come into play soon

Originally Posted by Epee_Pox

And I am woefully uninformed about what's been going on in Georgia and why. (This is what I get for being away from civilization for a week.) Has there in fact been appeasement here?

There seems to be an arguement in some quarters that the Georgians had it coming - although I am sure the same was said of the Czechs and their belligerent attitude towards the will for self determination of the germans in Sudetenland.

[Fechter1]

What I've gathered from various news-sources (Note: some of this is my own interpretation):

Georgia has a 'history' of maltreatment of its ethnic minorities including the peoples of South Ossetia and Abchasia. This (among other reasons) has pushed those regions to seek independence. Abchasia, in fact, had unilaterally declared independence before, which Georgia tried to suppress. Not sure about the actual process, but the end result was stationing of Russian peacekeepers in Abchasia.

Now, South Ossetia has a mirror region in Russian territory, North Ossetia, with which they want to reunite. (This would most likely be under Russian auspices, increasing Russian territory, which at least in part explains the foot in the door that Russia needs).

One question is Who started this. One version is that Georgia began artillery bombardements and other military opersations against Ossetian villages, practially wiping out several of them. Initial reports stated 1400+ casualties, mostly Ossetian civilians.

[caution: own analysis] This has presented Russia the perfect excuse for invasion. [/personal]

However, now that Russia is so heavily engaged, Georgia is backpedaling rapidly, offering an immediate ceasefire. They seem to have severely underestimated the extent of Russia's interventive actions.

There is also previous bad blood between Russia and Georgia, mostly revolving around Georgian overtures to join NATO, which may be why Russia seems to be taking this to the end.

[Caution: editorial] Please also note that the mistreatment of ethnic minorities, i.e. liberating them from oppression, is the final reason that the US has offered for the invasion of Iraq, granting some legitimacy to Russia's current and continuing actions. So now we have Operation Georgian Freedom... That is why I am not particularly listening to US sources in this matter. [/editorial]

[Neinteen]

You don't hear about this kind of stuff happening in Neinlandia...

[erooMynohtnA]

In Russia, Georgia invades you!

[MdA]

I just hope my sons' fencing coach gets out. He went home with his wife and daughter to visit his parents and now he is hold up in the American embassy. Hows that for a nice summer vacation?

[OROD]

Originally Posted by Epee_Pox

Bzz. Sorry, wrong answer. Thank you for playing.

Well, it's certainly not over, but it's looking like I was actually right. Not that I'd put it past the Russians to complete take over the country, we all know from the Cold War that they like to do that. But as you can see from the world reaction and the tumble their stock market has been taking as well as the current talk about stoping their advance, it's pretty much what I said.

.

[Lemonaide]

It's a strange co-inky-dinky. But Georgia, according to the news, struck the first blow. Apparently they tried to hit Russia on the day of the Olympic Ceremonies, as a bid for sympathy. A person I know just did a tour of Russia and said "they're always fighting, they fight all the time there, that's the place where they fight". Etc. It didn't make me feel any better, but it was perfectly timed little strike, but they didn't count on a big retalliation and I guess they decided to go for broke the way the USA did in retalliation against Iraq even though it looks really bad. They want to have control of their domain. It looks incorrect, but I saw through the whole thing. Putim wasn't involved directly - he's busy looking for wife number two?

Eat a Peach - Alman Brothers

[the maple epee]

We're in.

[Epee_Pox]

I am comforted by the knowledge that, in times like these, our country will soon be led by either a feel-good appeaser or a plangent wackaloon. No matter who wins the election, we're going to be in good hands.

[erik_blank]

Originally Posted by Lemonaide

It's a strange co-inky-dinky. But Georgia, according to the news, struck the first blow. Apparently they tried to hit Russia on the day of the Olympic Ceremonies, as a bid for sympathy. A person I know just did a tour of Russia and said "they're always fighting, they fight all the time there, that's the place where they fight". Etc. It didn't make me feel any better, but it was perfectly timed little strike, but they didn't count on a big retalliation and I guess they decided to go for broke the way the USA did in retalliation against Iraq even though it looks really bad. They want to have control of their domain. It looks incorrect, but I saw through the whole thing. Putim wasn't involved directly - he's busy looking for wife number two?

Eat a Peach - Alman Brothers

Errr... Just to be picky here, Iraq did NOT have anything to do with th airline hijacking of the three US aircraft that resulted in the deaths of thousands of US citizens and visitors. So far, the US war of agression against the nation state of Iraq has yet to be proved to be lawfull or even needed, based on any available evidence. What is more, there have recenlty been revelations that the senior administration of the US was involved in a conspiracy to create falsified documents in an attempt to justify the invasion based on the hijacking attacks.
As for the Georga V. Russia disaster, I can only see this as nothing more than a grab for power on both sides for the control of that areas oil reserves and pipeline infrastructure.
For the religious among us, let us pray for the innnocent caught inthe crossfire, as it appears that neither government is innocent of 'sin.'

[Inquartata]

Maybe he was referring to the first Gulf War, ie retaliation for the invasion of Kuwait...

[erik_blank]

Originally Posted by Inquartata

Maybe he was referring to the first Gulf War, ie retaliation for the invasion of Kuwait...

Good point. Hopefully that is what he was referring to. Although there is some manufacturing of the incident on the US part for the first war as well, with our ambassadore essentialy saying that the US didn't give a fig if Kuait got eaten by Iraq. Stupid people on both sides of that war.Too bad the soldiers of both sides had to suffer the consequences of s@&#^% up politicians.