Olympic Prediction #5 - worst individual crumbler?

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!


Which fencer will crumble the worst in the individual fencing events?

For each fencer, compare two placements:
1. Their final placement in their individual Olympic event
2. Their pre-competition ranking among the Olympic competitors, based on world ranking.

If a fencer has a better value of #1 than #2, he has risen to the occasion. If the values are the same, he has performed as expected. If the #2 number is lower than the #1 number, he has crumbled.

Hypothetical example: A fencer has world ranking #99 coming into the Olympic games, qualified by continent. That is the worst world ranking of all competitors in that event, which has 24 competitors. That fencer wins the event, so his rise factor is 24-1=23 rise points. Another fencer is the world champion and world #1 rank, but stumbles in the quarterfinal and ends up eighth. That fencer then has 8-1=7 crumble points

What weapon/gender combo will be fenced by the worst individual crumbler, measured by this method? Vote for more than one combo if you believe that their will be a dead tie.

Better yet, predict who it will be, and the worst crumble points. Any educated guess on which USA fencer will fall apart the most?


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[Dev]

Wouldn't it be impossible for the #1 seed to fall in the quarters and finish lower than 5th? They don't fence off 5-9 if I recall.

[epeemike81]

Better yet, predict who it will be, and the worst crumble points. Any educated guess on which USA fencer will fall apart the most?

That I'm willing to post on a public forum? **** no.

-m

[nyacfencing]

Sorry... I avoid answering surveys which require me to perform advanced calculus equations. I don't even understand half of what you are talking about...

I am pretty certain this survey will crumble though.

[Agent_V]

Sorry... I avoid answering surveys which require me to perform advanced calculus equations. I don't even understand half of what you are talking about...

I am pretty certain this survey will crumble though.

That is the funny thing about math - people always think it's much harder than it really is. All Peter is doing is subtraction.

my guess is of course, Men's epee. And of course, Women's foil will have the least spread, i.e. the smallest amount of crumbling OR rising.

[tchwojko]

That is the funny thing about math - people always think it's much harder than it really is. All Peter is doing is subtraction.

Calculus: pretend everything is a straight line. Really really small straight lines.
Differential Equations: Guess at the answer and then show you were right.
Trigonometry: Pick a point on the circle, and then measure how high up and how far over you are.

Much easier than people think.

Algebra, however, is much more difficult than people think.

[oso97]

Calculus: pretend everything is a straight line. Really really small straight lines.
Differential Equations: Guess at the answer and then show you were right.
Trigonometry: Pick a point on the circle, and then measure how high up and how far over you are.

Much easier than people think.

Algebra, however, is much more difficult than people think.

Absolutely agree. Calculus is fun. Differential Equations is pretty easy once you get the hang of it. Trig is just following a couple of basic rules through to their logical conclusions.

But algebra? *shudder* Thats enough to make you scream in angst. Hardest math course I ever took was an advanced algebra course.

[epeemike81]

Absolutely agree. Calculus is fun. Differential Equations is pretty easy once you get the hang of it. Trig is just following a couple of basic rules through to their logical conclusions.

But algebra? *shudder* Thats enough to make you scream in angst. Hardest math course I ever took was an advanced algebra course.

meh. it's not that hard once you learn how to think about it. It took me about half a year to learn that, but once I did, it was like somebody flipped a switch and it became pretty easy.

Hell, most proofs in group or ring theory are EXTREMELY short and simple.

-m

[JEC]

Women's Saber

Worst
Difference/initial seed/final placement/name/country
+14 3 17 NETCHAEVA Elena - RUS
+10 8 18 SOCHA Aleksandra - POL
+12 7 19 PERRUS Leonore - FRA
+10 10 20 LEE Shin Mi - KOR

Best improvement
Difference/initial seed/final placement/name/country
-19 26 7 BESBES Azza - TUN
-17 25 8 KHOMROVA Olena - UKR
-14 30 16 WIECKOWSKA Irena - POL
-8 14 6 BAO Yingying - CHN
-8 23 15 OVTCHINNIKOVA Olga - CAN


Men's Epee

Worst
Difference/initial seed/final placement/name/country
+11 6 17 KELSEY Weston - USA
+9 1 10 JEANNET Jerome - FRA
+8 10 18 KULCSAR Krisztian - HUN
+8 11 19 KHVOROST Maksym - UKR
+7 2 9 FERNANDEZ Silvio - VEN

Best improvement
Difference/initial seed/final placement/name/country
-25 27 2 JEANNET Fabrice - FRA
-13 16 3 ABAJO Jose Luis - ESP
-11 15 4 BOCZKO Gabor - HUN
-7 22 15 TIKHOMIROV Igor - CAN
-7 23 16 YIN Lianchi - CHN


Surprise: The biggest crumbler is in WS thus far, bigger than Epee.
Disclaimer: Data is data. How you interpret the data is subject to risks and misinterpretations.

[edew]

meh. it's not that hard once you learn how to think about it. It took me about half a year to learn that, but once I did, it was like somebody flipped a switch and it became pretty easy.

Hell, most proofs in group or ring theory are EXTREMELY short and simple.

-m

Prove that. (By induction, of course.)

[MyrddinsPrecint]

Prove that. (By induction, of course.)

Induction induces vomit.

[KD5MDK]

Induction is an electrical force. What's special about that?

[epeemike81]

Induction is an electrical force. What's special about that?

If this is a joke, I missed it...

if not: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction

-m

[edew]

'Sokay, Mike. Another math joke whizzes by the heads of the peons.

[KD5MDK]

If this is a joke, I missed it...

if not: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction

-m

It's called "Deliberate Misinterpretation".

[epeemike81]

It's called "Deliberate Misinterpretation".

Yeah, but usually it's done in a manner which makes it funny...

oh well, to each his own.

-m

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!

Surprise: The biggest crumbler is in WS thus far, bigger than Epee.
Disclaimer: Data is data. How you interpret the data is subject to risks and misinterpretations.

Tatiana Lougunova, WE, was seeded 9th but lost in 1st round, ending up at best 17th. Emma Samuelsson went from th 26th to 8th

In whitewater kayaking, a Togolese competitor went from rank #56 to Bronze medal, quite possibly the best riser-to-the-occasion of the entire OG.


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[black card]

voted for the fatty

[Peach]

Calculus: pretend everything is a straight line. Really really small straight lines.
Differential Equations: Guess at the answer and then show you were right.
Trigonometry: Pick a point on the circle, and then measure how high up and how far over you are.

Much easier than people think.

Algebra, however, is much more difficult than people think.

Can't give you rep again so soon.

[Craig]

Which fencer will crumble the worst in the individual fencing events?

Gotta go with Baldini there. Went from #1 to DNC.