Underperforming places in fencing?

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!


I have on numerous occasions read top-10 lists of various sorts, on the net and in papers. Every time, it is noted in the following discussion that such lists are always skewed, since big (in some sense) places have a larger selection to choose from, and will therefore get more top placements in the long run.

In response to this, some list producers have taken to publish lists which take size into account, usually by dividing the results earned by some size measure - population, GDP, whatever. This often leads to strange results, in which some small place gets placed very high (or takes the cake) simply by having one good result and a very small population. For example, Bahamas won such a Olympic points list/population, since they had one silver medal that year (men's high jump). Some time in the 60-70ies, San Marino won that list by having one 5th placement in a men´s individual fencing event.

This is quite understandable, chance simply affects smaller entities than it does large. For USA to have outcompeted Bahamas in that list, dozens of US. Olympians would have had to outperformed their wildest dreams. Not gonna happen. The closest thing in reality that I know of was the Swedish results in the 2006 Winter Olympics, where all expected medals materialized, quite a few who only the most fervent hopers would have hoped for did medal, and very few underperformed their expected result. That from one of the larger teams in the whole competition. When I looked at TV, it felt as if I was seeing a maelstrom of miracles.

This thread, OTOH, is to be about big places that underperform, and do so on a reasonably consistent basis. If one looks at the Olympics, India is the shining (?) example of this - they have medalled fairly consistently in field hockey, but failed quite spectaculaily in all other events. That despite being #2 in world population, and having a GDP - and GDP/person clearly in excess o many countries which have medaled on several occasions. Another example is Singapore. That country has 6 million inhabitants IIRC. They have gotten one single Olympic medal during the entire OG history (men´s 110 m hurdles). 6 million is not too far from Sweden (9 million), which has scored literally dozens of medals since the end of WWII alone in the summer OG. Singapore is not poor, so the GDP/person argument does not hold either.

So, what places are the equivalent in fencing? Which is the most consistent underperformer among the US. states in SN´s? South Dakota has not scored many medals, but since their fencing population is so small, that is to be expected. Which is the state that has the lowest SN medal/fencer population ratio? (here, when I refer to SN medals, I only mean marquee events - Div 1 and senior teams)

On a world scale - which country consistently comes home with a haul smaller than what could be expected from fencer population alone in World Championships and top-level World Cup events? Now I am not talking about the times when a big fencing country occasionally has a disappointing competition, I am asking about those who manage to put together a string of bad results in several consecutive years.


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[sheck]

At the senior World level it would have to be the US. WS has helped as of late but historically we are major under achievers. The potential reasons why have been mentioned over and over again.

[the ancient one]

Need Data.

In another discussion someone mentioned about 2000 registered fencers in Hungary, and about 60,000 in France.

With disparity like that even France could be considered to be underperforming.

Does anyone have accurate information about the number of competitive fencers in different countries?

Addendum: France really does have 60,000 members, and tons of stats available:
http://www.escrime-ffe.fr/Site_FFE/f...umentation.htm

Check under "Le Guide Fédéral 2006" and select "Chapitre 3".

[Inquartata]

From a population-performance standpoint I'm going to guess California for US state and Japan for country. Only a guess, though.

[veeco]

Japan has less than twice the population of the US, and they did win a team medal at the last world championships, so they might be turning it around, though.

I think that the number of people fencing is probably a more accurate data point than just population, though.

[PeterGustafsson]

Hi!

Originally Posted by Inquartata

From a population-performance standpoint I'm going to guess California for US state and Japan for country. Only a guess, though.

The population figure that I consider relevant is here fencer population, not general population. (Heck, Pakistan has over 110 million people, but no fencing federation!) Might not change the validity of your guesses, though.


Have a nice time!

Peter Gustafsson

[D'Art]

In that case, I'm afraid the UK has to be "up" there near the top of the list.

[lanyingjie]

Actually I'm from Singapore, so I'll just explain the situation down here. We've got 4 million people, nowhere near 6 million as Gustafsson has pointed out (erroneously). But Singapore's not had a single Olympic medal since indepedence, with the 1960 Rome Olympics yielding the only silver medal with Tan Howe Liang in weightlifting.

I guess one of the biggest problems is the nature of the Singaporean population. With a limited land area, it's very hard to justify sports arenas. We don't really have a lot of sports facilities, since the majority of the land area has to be devoted to schools, housing etc.

I mean, looking at our main fencing competitions, including the Nationals! They're held at a sports hall where we share space with badminton players and it's not even airconditioned. It's all to do with the general attitude. Singapore's highly focused on education, such that the psyche of the population has shifted away from sports.

The traditional Asian parent has always viewed education and academic excellence as the ticket to a better life, so you often have cases of parents willing to slog just to put their children through school. This often spills over to have parents who object to their children who would like to be a professional athlete. The Singapore Sports School is only a few years old, as compared to places like China where you have quite a few within a single city, much less the entire country.

Give Singapore time, I'm pretty sure that Olympic medal will start coming soon.

[Redblade]

Per capita athletic success rates?
Interesting concept.

[fatfencer]

Me.

Of course I'm more likely to be useful at a buffet or eating contest but hey... it's good to know one's limitations. On camping trips my lame can be used as a makeshift tablecloth.

Arizona has to be one of the more underperforming states in the US as far as total fencers, fencers per capita, medals per fencer/capita. We just suck, frankly. We don't even really have any hottie fencers. Just a few decent milfs.

FF

[Inquartata]

Speak for yourself, silly foil person!


Of the 8 50 MS medalists at Nationals, three were from Arizona. And another in the V40 MS. All from one club, in fact.

[piste off]

Originally Posted by Inquartata

Of the 8 50 MS medalists at Nationals, three were from Arizona. And another in the V40 MS. All from one club, in fact.

And not a hottie in the bunch!

Rick

[Inquartata]

Well, it depends on your perspective. I tend to agree, but maybe that has something to do with my sexual orientation. Or, you know, my possession of eyesight.

[bunbury]

Originally Posted by fatfencer

Me.

Of course I'm more likely to be useful at a buffet or eating contest but hey... it's good to know one's limitations. On camping trips my lame can be used as a makeshift tablecloth.

Arizona has to be one of the more underperforming states in the US as far as total fencers, fencers per capita, medals per fencer/capita. We just suck, frankly. We don't even really have any hottie fencers. Just a few decent milfs.

FF

South Carolina has ~130 (usfa) fencers and had no As in any weapon until a few weeks ago, where we got an epee A07... as if that's worth much. We do have a foil B, though...

[MarkoB]

Overperformers would have to be Cuba, I should have thought. Their facilities seem to consist of one rusty foil and a plimsol but they outperform much better resourced nations.
Underperformers, would have to be my nation of the UK. Probably something to do with still regarding trying hard as a little bit vulgar.

[FoilyDeath]

Originally Posted by MarkoB

Overperformers would have to be Cuba, I should have thought. Their facilities seem to consist of one rusty foil and a plimsol but they outperform much better resourced nations.
Underperformers, would have to be my nation of the UK. Probably something to do with still regarding trying hard as a little bit vulgar.

and the fact that any sport that isn't football, rugby, or cricket is massively frowned upon.

[veeco]

Originally Posted by MarkoB

Overperformers would have to be Cuba, I should have thought. Their facilities seem to consist of one rusty foil and a plimsol but they outperform much better resourced nations.
Underperformers, would have to be my nation of the UK. Probably something to do with still regarding trying hard as a little bit vulgar.

Really? What happened to the British fighting spirit??

[MarkoB]

Oh, we have plenty of fighting spirit (too much, sometimes) it's just that for years it was seen as a bad thing to try too hard. The idea is to win but not look as if you care if you win. Of course, that's changing now, which is a bit of a pity. Also, if you've won five Olympic gold medals and someone asks you if you fence, you should reply 'I dabble'.
There is, however, a school of thought that regards practising too much as cheating.
Personally, I wish this attitude would return. I think the footstamping, referee quesioning, win at all costs attitude is pretty disfiguring.

[Insipiens]

Maybe the relative lack of success of India at the Olympic games (based on population size) reflects the fundamentally Western origins of the games, the fact that they are full of swimming events, and the fact that Indian sport seems to be obsessed with Cricket to an astonishing degree.

But pure numbers participating is not the same as creating the conditions for success. France has a vast number of fencers and a lot of high quality fencers pushing each other, a history of Olympic and international success and high quality coaches. (The same for Italy).

The UK has a lot of social and semi-competitive fencing but does not have the numbers of quality fencers and coaches or the history of success.

In France or Italy (as examples) you have Olympic champions to emulate.

That said, if there were as many rowing events as there are swimming events maybe the UK would win a few more medals

[Phaeton]

Fencing is a sport which requires quality coaching. I'm not all that sure per capita success is a good way to look at things. It may, however, be a good place for a coach to find a new job.