Who is poisioning these guys?

[umbrella]

Who is poisoning these guys in the paper? what's your take on this?

[Have At You]

Well, the cynic in me says the guy was couriering the polonium in a leaky container and contaminated himself. It's an alpha-particle emitter, which is what someone would use to set off an atomic explosive.

It's not a very useful way of assassinating someone to keep them quiet, because it takes so bloody long to take effect, and in the meantime it creates a lot of noise in the media and draws a lot of attention. Just about the opposite of an intelligent assassination method. (A single drop of concentrated nicotine, on the other hand, is absorbed readily into the skin, causes natural-looking heart failure, and its metabolites are going to be considered normal in a heavy-smoking Russian. Bullets work well, too. And rat poison, cyanide, ricin, and many other readily-available items do the trick neatly & cleanly.) So I sincerely doubt it was an assassination.

Put together the purpose that polonium is used for, and the fact that everywhere this guy traveled got contaminated, and I'd say he was trafficking the stuff. Wonder who he sold it to?

[umbrella]

sooooooo excellent. I think you have the correct answer.

[Phaeton]

There may be something to Have At You's post. Then again it could be that the job was to be anything but done discretely. Russia isn't having an easy time becoming a democracy, and the road has been very bumpy, but the Americans are partly to blame for it.

You can't create a capitalist system where the only people who have capital are the mafia and criminals. They only invest that to get more money and because of wealth weild a lot of political power.

People know that there have been human rights violations and widespread allegations of corruption. I would be surprised if the occasional outspoken opponant of policy didn't end up six feet under every once and a while.

There is also the possibility he poisened himself or one of his friends poisened him for the sake of bringing out allegations against Russia.

Who knows...

[pigeonmeister]

The only thing that you can say for certain at this stage, is that this will be turned into a film someday.

Litvinenko an international polonium dealer?

We are talking about one of the most difficult to handle substances in the world. I find the idea that you could jet around the world, whilst wearing no protective gear, essentially with it stuffed in your pocket, hard to believe. I have heard reports that the dose administered to Litvenenko would cost about £20 million. Does Litvenenko live in the manner reflecting a dealer of such an expensive commodity? Indeed would any dealer live such a conspicious life of self-publicity. Would he need/want to travel the world, speaking at academic institutions. Would he, as some have reported, have to earn a living by blackmailing ex KGB spies?

Polonium seems to have some qualities, as a assasination device, that are being ignored. Chiefly, that it gives the assasin a large time period in which to cover his/her tracks. Moreover the ambiguity that it has provoked, in terms of motive and application, has made it very hard to assign blame. Guns, knives ect leave an easiliy identified, and timeframed, cause of death and forensic evidence. If you use a method literally never used before then law enforcement agencies have to literally make it up as they go along- never good.

"creates a lot of noise in the media and draws a lot of attention."

It is this fact that makes the conspiracy theorist in me look towards anti-Putin forces. I'd be looking at those with a serious interest in discrediting Putin, especially when he is leader of the G8 and the next Russian election is already being viciously fought over. Also draws attention to the recent law, passed in Moscow, in which Russian security services are now allowed to assasinate threats to the state- essentially legalising the assasination of dissidents.

So it's not Putin, which means it was probably some of the shadowy anti-Putin oligarchs, either seeking to pressurise Putin or purely as revenge for Litvenenko's attempts to muscle in on some of their dodgy dealings. The Kremlin has pointed the finger of suspicion firmly at Boris Berezovsky, but then again they would like to see him arrested above anyother man alive. At which point you can start going in circles...

I'm not sure we will ever know the truth.

[scrapinpeg]

I,too, am skeptical about the idea of him being a polonium trafficker. But not for the same reasons that Pigeonmeister is.

Unlike Pigeonmeister, I can easily envision someone carrying a small but useful amount of the stuff in an easily-carried container designed to be leakproof. I can also see such a container being prone to mishaps that could cause minor flaws in the seal, which would explain the low level of contamination wherever this guy went, and the larger dose that built up in him.

I also disagree with the assertion that he couldn't have been a trafficker because he wasn't well off. Couriers are rarely well off. In fact, they tend to be desperate for cash, often in desperate personal situations. They accept almost all the risk of illicit dealings, as they are the ones who get caught, double-crossed, ripped off or killed. The dealers themselves don't transport contraband or engage in transactions.

So it is conceivable that he was a courier who got unlucky, not unlike a heroin smuggler whose balloons came open in his belly.

I don't think that's the case, however, because it would imply that there is a terrorist or rogue government out there which is close to completing an atomic device, and that this buyer of polonium somehow felt safest having the transaction take place (or having the courier pass through) one of the most heavily policed cities and countries on the planet, where they have some of the most sophisticated means of tracking such couriers as well as some of the highest motivations for doing so. It's almost as boneheaded as trying to do the deal on an El Al flight.

I can sort of see how it could have been an assassination attempt. Polonium doesn't set off geiger counters, so it's not as readily detected by ordinary law enforcement, which makes it easier to get to the target. And although it does take a long time to take effect, it's unusual enough that it might not be caught in time.

But at the same time, it's just too evil-villainish for my taste. In real life, spies don't get bisected by lasers, dropped into personal shark tanks, or nuked. As HAY pointed out, there are plenty of ordinary and effective ways of getting rid of someone.

Makes me wonder. If it wasn't an assassination, and it wasn't a trafficking accident, then what else might it have been? Hmmm....

[pigeonmeister]

Unlike Pigeonmeister, I can easily envision someone carrying a small but useful amount of the stuff in an easily-carried container designed to be leakproof. I can also see such a container being prone to mishaps that could cause minor flaws in the seal, which would explain the low level of contamination wherever this guy went, and the larger dose that built up in him.

Getting a leakproof (lead lined?) container through hand luggage- is it as easy as you say? Even if the traffiker accepts the risks, would the recipient? It seems to me that this is a substance that requires a totaly different approach to covert transportation than say drugs or conventional weapons.

So it is conceivable that he was a courier who got unlucky, not unlike a heroin smuggler whose balloons came open in his belly.

I think that assigning the motives of a Caribbean drug trafficker, ingesting a few thoudands dollars worth of cocain into condoms, to an ex KGB spy involving in one of the most expensive and ellusive toxins in the world is not really comparing apples with apples.

It seems very probably that this material originated from Russia, so why would he be taking it back to Russia? I also have now built up an instinctive (and very possibly irrational) suspicion of people linking anything to the 'war on terror'. Yet the massive doses does ask the question: why spend so much money on a dose (Ive heard $100 million's worth now)- 100 times more than required? You need a lot of Polonium for a terrorist scheme, not so much to kill one man.

After a little digging, maybe the contraband theory is the stongest after all?

I don't think that's the case, however, because it would imply that there is a terrorist or rogue government out there which is close to completing an atomic device.

Dirty bombs don't need much technological understanding though?

Maybe “Sasha” (as Litvinenko is known) was involved with nuclear material smuggling. There was a strory last year - tied to Scaramella:

FOUR ITALIANS PROBED ON SUSPECTED URANIUM TRAFFIC

Source: Corriere della Sera website, Milan, in Italian 11 Jun 05

HEADLINE: FOUR ITALIANS PROBED ON SUSPECTED URANIUM TRAFFIC

Text of report by Virginia Piccolillo, “Uranium to make atom bomb sold to
four Italians”, published by Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera website
on 11 June

Rome: “During the month of September 2004 I was approached by an Ukrainian national, whom I know by the name of Sasha, who wanted to sell me a briefcase containing radioactive material, and, more precisely, uranium for military use.”

Among the theories that remain open is that the poisonings were an accident that happened while Litvinenko tried to assemble a dirty bomb for Chechen rebels. This theory seems to be based on alleged close links to chechyan militants (much of his work sought to delegitimise Russia's Chechyan campaign) and Litvenenko's father saying his son requested an Islamic funeral.

Berezovsky knew Litvenenko was both ambitious and strapped for cash, he also hated Putin. Maybe he asked Litvenenko to arrange a dirty bomb for use by Chechyan militants. We know that Litvenenko then fell out with Berezovsky, so maybe he was given a poorly sealed dose to both kill him and also pressure the Russian government. But why isn't the man who tranfered the polonium to Litvenenko lieing in a hospital or morgue having suffered serious radioation sickeness himself? Surely more than two people have been significantly contaminated?

.

[scrapinpeg]

Getting a leakproof (lead lined?) container through hand luggage- is it as easy as you say?

It needn't be lead-lined at all. The radiation emitted by polonium 210 can be blocked by almost anything. You can sit nude next to a lump of it, and your own skin will block the radiation. You pretty much have to breathe particles of it, swallow some of it, or otherwise get it inside your skin before it has an effect. You could carry a chunk of it inside a sealed FedEx envelope with no worries. Seriously.

The more I think about it, though, the less credible I find the trafficking theory. Polonium isn't exactly hard to acquire. You can buy a lethal amount of the stuff for under five hundred bucks, if you know the ordinary things it is used in. An islamist terrorist without such means still wouldn't need to get it from him, because Iran has loads of the stuff.

He had to either eat it or breathe it. Other people around him got dosed as well, so it had to be either something they all ate, or in the air they all breathed.

Lots of physical locations he was got contaminated. That means it probably wasn't in something he ate, and was probably in a dust form that went with him. Who knows, maybe it was sprinkled on his jacket or in his hair? Maybe he got some new hairspray or deodorant that's made out of the stuff?

Quite a mystery. I agree with Pigeonmeister... wonder who's going to write the screenplay.

[umbrella]

you have a very good point. We're quick to point the finger at human rights violations in ussr, when in fact, the usa has some of the same problems; however, Ithink they are closer to us than many of us would believe. Their system is more close to grbritians' socialist party and the day's of 'old ivan sulking around the gulag' are not very current. Usa has it's share of problems. Our own economic downturns with large populations going around searching for work is evidence plus the almost 100% cutoff of Section 8; while it could have used a tweek, really set much of the economy off course as less $$$ was being circulated throughout. I read the italy thing and it sort of pisses me off; I like both countries very much, can't find too much to complain about. It reeks of old roman poison rings....'was the Borgia family up to their old tricks?". Ussr has been making strides, bring the othodox greek church back into play; could it have been something else.

We can only wait and see; but like uranium and other radioactive materials; the shelf life is pretty long; I don't think we'll forget these episodes too soon.

Adios for now.

[scrapinpeg]

We can only wait and see; but like uranium and other radioactive materials; the shelf life is pretty long; I don't think we'll forget these episodes too soon.

Actually, the half-life of Polonium 210 is pretty short. Only about 138 days. [where's the snarky smiley?]

[Inquartata]

Maybe “Sasha” (as Litvinenko is known) was involved with nuclear material smuggling.

Or maybe someone wanted to give that impression, as a way of discrediting his allegations.

Wheels within wheels in the international intelligence business...

[introspective]

I agree with Inquart's assessment. Well let's carry on gents.
I'm going to make a thread adjacent to this re: fiji.......

[TrainingDummy]

Or maybe someone wanted to give that impression, as a way of discrediting his allegations.

Wheels within wheels in the international intelligence business...

"I see many things... I see plans within plans..."

-The Third Stage Guild Navigator

[introspective]

Well! the more I read about these incidents the more I wonder. The papers all say it was Russia itself, but I don't think so. I think it was someone else.

[Sabresque]

Truthfully in matters that involve int'l intellegence, I'd hardly be willing to believe the papers.

[Inquartata]

Well...Litvinenko himself thought it was Putin and his machine. Litvineko was not "the papers", but an ex-KGB operative himself.

Usually a person knows who his enemies are, and who is likely to be behind an attempt to get him. Even when they aren't spooks. So I tend to believe him, absent compelling evidence tending otherwhither...

[pigeonmeister]

Has anyone else felt that this story has magically dissipated? Maybe it's just the UK, where the story was consumed by the murder of 5 women in South East England, and then Saddam. But it seems that there has been little coverage of the Litvenenko case recently.

Scaramella was arrested upon his return to Naples on xmas day. The charge was arms traffiking and revealing state secrets, and totaly unrelated to the Litvenenko case (supposedly). Does this confirm, perhaps, that Scaramella was indeed an international arms dealer? The refusal to link Scaramella's arrest to the Litvenenko case has been seen by some to suggest that the Italian was working with tacit CIA/M16 approval (these agencies thus unwilling to reveal a link?)

Or is this simply a Putin/Italian (ex Communists esp) effort to silence Scaramella's investigation into KGB infiltration in Italy.

Also- Last I heard Scaramella had been told he was going to die from his exposure to P-210. This now appears to be untrue, so why was that fed to the media? (by his father if I recall correctly)

From one blog....

There's still seems little to contradict the theory that these guys were improperly handling a nuclear trigger for a Soviet-era suitcase nuke (the type of which at least 14 are unaccounted for).

The triggers on these devices (the lost ones) would be inoperable at this point making the device useless as a fully functional nuke. If they were handling a trigger without proper precautions, or handling an improvised or "reloaded" trigger one would expect the very same contamination pattern and poisoning results that we've seen.

[Inquartata]

Has anyone else felt that this story has magically dissipated? Maybe it's just the UK, where the story was consumed by the murder of 5 women in South East England, and then Saddam. But it seems that there has been little coverage of the Litvenenko case recently.

The moving finger writes, and having writ
Moves on...

So too the typing finger of journalism these days...

There's still seems little to contradict the theory that these guys were improperly handling a nuclear trigger for a Soviet-era suitcase nuke (the type of which at least 14 are unaccounted for).

Well, but that's not how the truth advances: by lending credence to theories so long as they are not disproven. I mean, there's nothing to "contradict the theory" that he was killed by space aliens, either.

[scrapinpeg]

There's still seems little to contradict the theory that these guys were improperly handling a nuclear trigger for a Soviet-era suitcase nuke (the type of which at least 14 are unaccounted for).

Well, if the theory is that they improperly handled the trigger by actually ingesting or inhaling bits of polonium, then I guess so. But that's a BIG if.

The fact that the polonium somehow had to get inside their skin to be harmful makes it extremely unlikely that mere mis-handling of the stuff got someone poisoned.

[Inquartata]

Hey, you know, those nuclear triggers look so delicious, who could resist licking one a few times?