North Korea nuke test

[Aqua_volans]

Something really should be done to stop that axis of evil. They tested a friggin nuke! My personal opinion is seriously torn on this. By imposing economic sanctions and withdrawing humanitarian aid to north korea, it is the ordinary people who starve and suffer, not that idiot kim jong il. On the other hand, i want to see North Korea crippled as a nation and Kim Jong Il captured and tried for crimes against humanity. I'm personally extremely surprised by the sheer audacity of north korea, even after threats from all around it.

[scrapinpeg]

A seismic event has been confirmed. But the rumbling might have had something to do with record attendance at this year's Annual Kimchee Festival.

But if it was a nuke, I wonder how they got one ready to go despite the sanctions and other preventions already in place. How did they get the necessary materials, equipment and expertise?

[keith]

But if it was a nuke, I wonder how they got one ready to go despite the sanctions and other preventions already in place. How did they get the necessary materials, equipment and expertise?

Just wander down to the bazaar in Karachi and ask for Abdel

[Sabresque]

I'm personally extremely surprised by the sheer audacity of north korea, even after threats from all around it.

I'm not. The US made it clear long ago it won't mess with countries that actually have nuclear capabilities. Iran's actually getting smart and figuring this out too.

Kim Jung Il isn't going to do anything that jeopardizes his power, unless he's backed into a corner and we're not going to do that despite all his whining and complaining that we might attack him. He's a little crazy but not so much that he'll risk destroying himself. if he drops a nuke without provocation we'd blow a hole in the earth the size of hmm...North Korea.

[OROD]

I'm not. The US made it clear long ago it won't mess with countries that actually have nuclear capabilities. Iran's actually getting smart and figuring this out too.

Kim Jung Il isn't going to do anything that jeopardizes his power, unless he's backed into a corner and we're not going to do that despite all his whining and complaining that we might attack him. He's a little crazy but not so much that he'll risk destroying himself. if he drops a nuke without provocation we'd blow a hole in the earth the size of hmm...North Korea.

1. The problem was never North Korea, the problem was China. If it was just North Korea we would have bombed the hell out of their nuclear program long ago.

2. He doesnt need to drop a nuke anywhere. All he needs to do is start selling the tech to his equally crazy friends like Iran and the other dictators around the world. Or, he could sell one to a terrorist organization.

3. Even if he never uses it or sells it, it'll start an arms race in the area. You think South Korea and Japan want to be sitting around looking at the wrong end of a nuke? And then what, you have a whole bunch of countries with nukes that all hate each other. How long before they use it?

Jeeez!

[Aqua_volans]

3. Even if he never uses it or sells it, it'll start an arms race in the area. You think South Korea and Japan want to be sitting around looking at the wrong end of a nuke? And then what, you have a whole bunch of countries with nukes that all hate each other. How long before they use it?

It won't be surprising if the US actually supplies nukes to them... And hey presto, nuclear war in north-east asia.

[Inquartata]

It won't be surprising if the US actually supplies nukes to them... And hey presto, nuclear war in north-east asia.

Ah...we do have about 30,000 troops on the DMZ, you know.

Do you also buy the theories about the US government perpetrating the 911 attack so it could blame Islam, too?

[scrapinpeg]

You may be on to something, there, Inq. What with falling oil prices, improved employment, and higher ratings all around, the odds were getting better for the Republicans to keep control of Congress this Fall. So the Democrats released the Foley scandal a little early (word is, the original plan was to dump that one about 10 days before the election). Et voila, the GOP starts losing ground, and several races that were sure wins are now "competitive." Something, anything, was necessary to get the page scandal off the front... page.

So of course Karl Rove induced the North Koreans to "test" a "nuclear device." So what if it was just a fizzle and probably not a huge success? The Republican scandal is off the front page, and their reputation as the party that's serious about defense against crazies like Kim will ensure that this event boosts their ratings.

I wouldn't put it past him, the machiavellian schemer.

[Phaeton]

What with falling oil prices, improved employment, and higher ratings all around, the odds were getting better for the Republicans to keep control of Congress this Fall.

After a republican gets elected the gas prices will shoot back up again. Oil companies are smart enough to know what's good for them.

They probably didn't do anything. Kim Jong Il wants the US's attention. Everyone's focused on Iran and the middle east, and he wants to have some diplomatic power. Getting a nuke means your up there with the big boys. That's why he launched the rockets supposidly capable of reaching the US over the summer, and claims to have a test, because frankly the world realizes he can't do anything and doesn't really give a damn at the moment.

Before anyone suggests invasion: Invade North Korea with what military? Ours is slightly bogged down.

[Sabresque]

2. He doesnt need to drop a nuke anywhere. All he needs to do is start selling the tech to his equally crazy friends like Iran and the other dictators around the world. Or, he could sell one to a terrorist organization.

3. Even if he never uses it or sells it, it'll start an arms race in the area. You think South Korea and Japan want to be sitting around looking at the wrong end of a nuke? And then what, you have a whole bunch of countries with nukes that all hate each other. How long before they use it?

Jeeez!

The problem of terrorists buying a nuke is an interesting one. The thing is, first of all, does NK really have the money to have such an excess of nukes that they're willing to sell some off? Second of all, though there probably is a price floating around there for nukes how are the terrorists going to get enough money to actually buy one off someone. Third, what would the incentive be for those countries who DO sell them/ give them away? It seems that the costs WAY outweight the benifits, since it probably won't be too hard to trace the one that sold the weapons and again, north korean crater.

North Korea knows one of the biggest bargaining chips in the world is a nuclear weapon.

As some political scientists say, the "norm" of the nuclear peace is pretty dang strong. If anyone were ever to use them, basically half the world would be blown to bits. States are very good at weighing cost-benefit relationships, and doing thing that are in their own selfish interest. While the whole idea of the nuclear peace works off the deterrence strategy it has seemed to hold in favor of a fairly peaceful world.

Where this comes into question is, as you said, non-state actors get
ahold of this kind of technology. Then we're pretty much @#$@ed. Yet, I still believe its not nearly as easy as it seems.

My 2 cents anyway.

[daeceg]

My suggestion is that since North Korea needs cash more than nukes, we offer to buy their program from them. We did it for South Africa and Ukraine, seems to have worked well enough.

What Kim Jong Il wants is a guarantee we won't try to overthrow him the way we did Hussein. A nuke guarantees we won't do that. It's why he pushed so hard to get the damned things. Now, maybe if we negotiated with the goofy little man and take him seriously, we can get somewhere. The biggest fear isn't that N Korea is going to glass Seoul-it's that he'll sell his goodies to not-nice people the way he got his stuff from Pakistan.

[pigeonmeister]

[

QUOTE=Sabresque]The problem of terrorists buying a nuke is an interesting one. The thing is, first of all, does NK really have the money to have such an excess of nukes that they're willing to sell some off?

The illegal arms trade, along with the illegal drugs trade, is one of the few ways N Korea can, and has been, making money. Don't have to necessarily sell a complete warhead either- just the plans or radioactive material could fetch decent money and be dangerous. But I essentially agree, nuclear weapons are a grave threat, but the generation of weapons Korea had developed are far too complicated for terrorists to launch- there are question marks about whether their recent test was that succesful anyway.

Third, what would the incentive be for those countries who DO sell them/ give them away?

What motivates all amoral arms dealers- money!

It seems that the costs WAY outweight the benifits, since it probably won't be too hard to trace the one that sold the weapons and again, north korean crater.

A Korean nuclear plan is found in an A Q safe house- does America immediately 'crater' N Korea? If they do that in the near future then there is a good chance Japan would become a 'crater'. N Korea has some serious leeway now-which is the point.

North Korea knows one of the biggest bargaining chips in the world is a nuclear weapon.

It's not that a disagree, it's just that I think it perhaps tempting to see this test as a bold and ambitious N Korean attempt to launch itself as an international diplomatic player- in a way Iran perhaps has always tried to be. N Korea is a very different type of state- much more insular. It is difficult to understate just how isolated N Koreans are- they literally have no conception of the outside world, they have no way of learning, every piece of information they digest comes from the state- they don't believe there is anything better than their miserable existance. In fact they have been indoctrinated into believing that their society is a utopian one. Kim Jong is a mythical figure, enjoying cult status almost, the idea that N Korea could develop this kind of technology and strength will be (as it was in Pakistan) a source of great pride and greatly enhance Jong's support. They can't see that the terribel cost they pay (starvation) is an unreasonable one or one that is not replicated in other states.

Kim Jong very rarely makes speeches, he has no real interest in the outside world- he has very seldom left N Korea. His only motivation is the survival of his authority (which is absolute), as such he has cemented his domestic position and guaranteed his state will not be invaded. Lets face it Iraq was the only 1 of the 3 rogue states (N Korea, Iran and Iraq) that didn't have a nuclear programme, yet was the only one invaded.

Jong doesn't have an internationalist agenda, he just wants to preserve his stalinist Utopia. The N Korean army has been run into the ground- it's once mighty conventional deterent is waning. The Nuclear deterent is probably cheaper to maintain.

I also don't believe the calibre of their scientists is that good, they are stil a long way from having an effective launch capacity and a long long way from intercontinental capacity.

I think this epsiode also helps to destroy the notion that superpower's can control so called proxy states. The Shah didn't do what the US told him in Iran, hesbollah doesn't always do what Iran wants now, Israel often acts independently to US guidance and N Korea doesn't always do what China wants.

[Crazy Horse]

Before anyone suggests invasion: Invade North Korea with what military? Ours is slightly bogged down.

So, are you suggesting that if we had the military available we should use to to destroy North Korea's nuclear capability? What would happen if we did and then discovered they didn't have a nuke or we couldn't find it? Would you then accuse Bush of lying?

[Aqua_volans]

Before anyone suggests invasion: Invade North Korea with what military? Ours is slightly bogged down.

yes, if i'm in favour of military action, it will be to level every last square picometre of north korean land with carpet bombing.

[scrapinpeg]

Why? What have they done to you?

[pigeonmeister]

yes, if i'm in favour of military action, it will be to level every last square picometre of north korean land with carpet bombing.

Now that's precision bombing!

[Phaeton]

So, are you suggesting that if we had the military available we should use to to destroy North Korea's nuclear capability? What would happen if we did and then discovered they didn't have a nuke or we couldn't find it? Would you then accuse Bush of lying?

I would be against any military action to get North Korea to dismantle equipment. The more conflict we can avoid the better.

I was against the invasion of Iraq from day 1, and frankly would be be much happier if Saddam Hussein was still in power. If action needed to be taken (and I believe it never did) it'd be best as Dubya's father had done; George Bush had the option to go in and take Baghdad, but he realized it wasn't a good idea. It was fairly obvious. It entailed a problem that would plague the future of the nation for years to come.

Iraq was for all intensive purposes secular country. I'm much more afraid of what the tide of radical muslims will do in terms that country's volitiviatey. Iraq was in some ways a buffer to Iran. Instating democracy as a foreign policy doesn't work; some people don't take to it , and some people elect folks like Hamas legitimately, and then there isn't much we can do about it when that happens.

Sometimes I feel we should just install a pet dictator and cut and run. If we didn't make democracy such an issue; it might not look like imperialist hipocracy, but realisticly that won't work.

What I said about bogged down troops was more a preemptive strike to prevent the topic.

[umbrella]

I don't know, I like Korea..... Their earthquake was good and in keeping with the recent one I had about a month ago.

[Inquartata]

Well, today the Chinese and the Russians are, again, dragging their heels on sanctions. Big surprise.

If North Korea set of nuclear devices along the DMZ and annihilated our trops there, I suspect that China and Russia would immediately call for "more diplomacy".

And North Korean spokepersons are again playing the "declaration of war" card. Frown at us and we'll onsider THAT an act of war, too!

As long as they can string the world along this way, no wonder they think they can do as they please with impunity.

[jeff]

I totally agree - and Iran is taking notes, too.

What's with South Korea? They've been active at enabling the North, but they'll be the first ones to go to the wall.