Will we really get him?

[arcon]

Do you think we willsuccessfully kill or capture the most wanted man in the world?....O.B. Laden

And why?

arcon

[ 09-30-2001: Message edited by: arcon ]

[Iwant2bafencer]

I think if we want it bad enough. (There's no doubt in my mind we do.) Also considering the fact that we have at least half the world on our side. Yes I think we will.
Seize the Day

------------------
Carpe Diem

[arcon]

What i wonder is.......does he have the ability to get out of Afghanistan or is he gone already?.....sitting on a beach in France right now.......although it might be a
little chilly by now.

arcon

[ 09-27-2001: Message edited by: arcon ]

[ 09-28-2001: Message edited by: arcon ]

[JniedWKU]

Bin Laden is still in Afghan, if he ever leaves that place he is a dead man, cause the entire world will be after him. Right now he is probably wondering why he took up terrorism, and not fencing.

[ 09-27-2001: Message edited by: JniedWKU ]

[lochinvar]

Trouble is, how would we know?

Despite our awesome surveilance capabilities, it's still the proverbial needle in the haystack.

He could still be there, hiding in a cave. He's done it before--1979 to 1990, to be exact.

Or he could have used some of his numerous contacts to leave as soon as things looked to be warming up. I heard a rumor that he's suspected of going to Somalia.

I don't think anyone knows if he's there or not. Not even the intelligence agencies or the military.

[arcon]

Do you think if we fenced him dry we'd be allowed to take our plastic tips off the foil?

arcon

[arcon]

loch, im inclined to agree with you. First of all these guys seem to be scattering, laying low, they know were're ready. You
would think just ONE guy would say.....hmmmm'
i can make so many million here and just turn
him in. Wishful thinking I guess.

arcon

[Inquartata]

Eventually, we'll get him, if someone else doesn't kill him first. After all, we "got" Carlos the Jackal eventually---he finally ran out of countries willing to give him sanctuary. Osama is already running short on those. Question is, how long will it take, and how much more mischief will he do in the meantime?

[attila]

Better question is " How many people will die directly or otherwise in the chase?"

[DamedEscrime]

I just received this in my email and thought I would share:

An acquaintance suggested that as an alternative approach we might tell the Taliban that they either give us Bin Laden or we gather up all their women and send them to college.


Have a great weekend!

[Gav]

No.

Do you guys believe that Bin Laden did it? I don’t know either way.

Where is the proof? I mean hard proof. I’ve yet to see something concrete that points the finger squarely at him. Who do you think will suffer IF America attacks Afghanistan? Bin Laden.? As someone else has pointed out he may not even be in the country. He’s certainly rich enough (and has enough contacts) to escape the country. Or if he is, where is he hiding? I may be wrong but I don’t think “bunker busters” can level mountains, or find their way through cavern systems.

Afghanistan is hostile terrain. It’s populated with people who are inherently anti-west (anti American, whatever). As soon as someone starts shooting who do you think the Afghani’s are going to side with? This situation cannot be solved at the end of gun. Any military action in Afghanistan will be counterproductive (especially in the long run). These are poor people. They live in an oppressive regime with little or no education or access to outside information. It would be much better to do something unexpected (and also more difficult) like educate the populace and improve the country’s infrastructure. I doubt that those starving or on the brink of starvation really care one way or the other about who is in power, who blew up the WTC, who has chemical weapons. All they want is food.

On another note. My memory is slightly hazy but I seem to remember that it was another country (not the USA) that caught the Jackal. The only relevance he has to this topic is his terrorism (and he was one nasty piece of work).

[erewhon]

Hmm. Gav - I think we need to be fairly careful here, not every Afghani will be inherently anti-western. Certainly not, one suspects, those who have been persecuted by the minority Taleban regime.

There has been much recent press comment suggesting that many Afghans (Tadjik and Pashto) have little sympathy for 'that Bedouin'.

On a broader perspective, I wonder how important capturing Bin Laden is anyway...

[Gav]

I don’t think that every Afghan is necessarily anti-western. I apologise if I was bit too general. I was trying to point out that, as soon as you march into a country and start shooting, the person who stands to lose the most is your average Afghan. This is a tricky situation and can’t be handled in an inflammatory way. I am concerned with tides of jingoism I see in the press. I don’t who they are trying to appeal to as most people here (that I know) are against military action. Indeed I saw petition a being signed the other day and the queue was pretty long.

There are elements that I see in the press that are stifling opposition. There was a an interview I saw recently were a journalist pointed out that his articles are not being printed. He wasn’t saying that America was in the wrong for feeling outraged and seeking revenge, he was actually asking that people consider their actions and act in a rational way. Yet as soon as he said this, his antagonist immediately rounded on him and wouldn’t allow him to speak. I’m not used to this level of suppression and to be frank it makes me paranoid about the intentions of the authorities in my own country rather than a “rogue” state a few thousand miles away.

This nebulous war on terrorism is war without a real goal. Without a real goal how can the military act?

[Iwant2bafencer]

Bin Laden would have a heck of a time getting out of there. Packastan is on one side then Iran then Iraq next to Iran. (one of them dont like ius i believe its iraq)Above Afghanistan is Russia, and next to them is China. If you ask me that's a difficult escape.
Also on the people that used to work for him. He sent out word that anyone that helped us would be brutaly killed along with their family.
Did you guys see that guy on the news last night? (The one that left B.L.'s group)

Just my two cents

---------------
Carpe Diem

[lochinvar]

Clarification, Iwant2b:

The countries you list are not necessarily hostile to Bin Ladin. There are many in Pakistan who support him and would gladly help him escape over a very porous border.

Iraq and Iran BOTH hate us, and both sponsor terrorists of their own. And might have helped organize this latest atrocity.

Russia is in a state of turmoil right now, and the Muslim countries (remnants of the former Soviet Union) might harbor as many supporters as Pakistan, if they are convinced that this is turning into a crusade against Islam.

As for China -- who knows what they might think or do?

No, I'm afraid it wouldn't be at all difficult for Bin Ladin to leave Afghanistan.

[arcon]

I heard today on public radio that A.B Laden
made contact with a Newspaper( i assume a Pakistan paper but im not sure)...anyway the
jest of his reponse was that the U.S. would not be successful in freezing his assets, or accounts and that he had three options at his disposal. Also we would not stop his plans and then went on the say he was not responsible for the WTC. I beginning to think this guy has some wharped since of reasoning that he can sponsor,promote, terroriosm then simply say "I didnt do it".
Hes just a sponsor, not the hit man.
Like the Godfather of terriorism.

[edew]

A) We don't have direct proof that O. bin Laden (why are people writing A.B.?) is behind the WTC destruction. Otherwise, we'd present it right away to the Talibans who requested it.

B) He's in a VERY friendly area. Plenty of people will help him in any way he wants.

C) There are thousands of others who will be happy to step into his shoes if he is killed or captured. There are thousands who are willing to fly another plane into another skyscraper if bin Laden is captured.

That's the unfortunate thing with that guy. If you capture him alive, he could be trouble as his allies will be willing to continue terroristic acts to get him back. If we kill him, he could Obi Wan it and be more powerful than ever before.

The thing to do with him is to find him and surreptitiously poison him with some natural poison. Something that takes perhaps a week or so to kill him. That way, his allies will see that he died a natural death, we play along by continuing to yell out, "Hey, bin Laden, where are you?" They lose a leader, but can't demagogically retaliate (who's skyscraper will they blow up?). Take out another or two of his lieutenants and they'll be in complete disarray. At the same time, offer humanitarian aid and such to draw those who are in deep doo-doo away from becoming extemists, and the problem disappears.

[Inquartata]

I'd have to agree with edew; quiet assasination would be the way to go. I don't think the US govrnment is going to go about it that way, though---not flashy enough for the six o'clock news. Although they may go that route with some other terrorist leaders.

I don't agree that failure to broadcast any evidence obtained thus far means there isn't any, though. Do we say "Hey, one of Bin Laden's bodyguards is on our payroll, he couldn't warn us ahead of time but he's smuggled out documentary proof of Osama's culpability, here it is"? The next day, no more bodyguards. Do we say "This Syrian official is one of our agents, he got us access to their Ministry telephone communications with Osama, here's a transcript"? Next day, a purge in the Syrian government. Lots of possible reasons to not even hint at how we know what we know. If it comes to a courtroom we'll have to, of course, but not just now, and certainly not to the Taliban, who are only temporizing in any case. ( Show 'em a videotape of Osama giving detailed instructions to a meeting of the 19 terrorists and they'd still find some way to weasel out of doing anything about it. )

Gav---re/ Carlos, by "we" I didn't mean the US, I meant "the civilized world". I think France has him, actually.

And...what would you have us do? Say "We can't PROVE it was you, Osama, carry on, old chap, get you next time"?

lochinvar---You're right about Pakistan, that's the border that worries me. But Osama's group has declared jihad against Iran, too ( pretty bizarre, but the Sunnis and Shiites hate each other the way Catholics and Protestants do in Northern Ireland ), so the Iranians would probably behead him themselves if they were to catch him. The Russians, I'm sure, still have long memories about their own stinging defeat in Afghanistan, and I daresay that they have no use for a former enemy.

Frankly, it seems that he thinks he can stay in Afghanistan and do the same thing to the US as he helped do to the Soviets. Maybe he can, too.

Anyway, close associates say he's not particularly afraid to die, and as long as he makes us expend blood and treasure out of all measure to his worth doing it he'll die happy...and like edew said, someone else will take his place.

[Moonitic]

Those who do evil deeds will get back what they have dished out. Call it karma, reaping what you sow, doing unto others...whatever. The universe has a way of making things right.

[its_me_mango]

edew has gone berserk, i don't think that in REALITY (folks) we're going to run around with little vials of poison, or you know those poison rings like in the books and "do away" with "evil doers", the best case scenerio is we transform all of them, but probably we'll have to settle for an arrest of all of them, possible execution, but even saying that makes everyone nervous and i'll share with you why: it's because for years and years a bunch of people paraded around in circles around the various prisions in america, praying and chanting slogans to release and/or spare people who have committed heineous crimes against others in america, we still have total loons sitting on death row "awaiting" - if we get those people out of our minds we'd be able to concentrate on the immediate difficulties. Those people in the middle east have absolutely no problem sending pcychopaths off to see allha, and neither would i.
But, I'm a buddhist. the fact that they blew up ancient statues of buddhas in the middle east should show us that they have no respect for anyone's religion. They are on a sacred mission and we haven't had one in a long time.