Is global warming a legitimate threat?

[gtmac]

Is it real or hype?

[glowstix]

is it real??...aahhh...YEAH!!!

[Feltan]

Global warming is a threat. Much is going to change in the future because of it.

What remains, to me, uncertain is the causes of Global Warming. I have a jaundiced view of "scientists" who publish "reports" paid for people who have a stake in the outcome of the debate.

The human contribution to Global Warming could well be nothing more than an insignificant blip on a very large sine wave with a periodic amplitude measured in eons. Certainly cold and warming trends that dwarf what we are currently experiencing happened long before mankind was around, much less industrialized.

So, the poll is flawed. I can agree on Global Warming -- whether it is happening or not -- but the cause (if there is a cause) is an entirely different subject.

Regards,
Feltan

[gtmac]

So, the poll is flawed. I can agree on Global Warming -- whether it is happening or not -- but the cause (if there is a cause) is an entirely different subject.

Regards,
Feltan

Tha poll doesn't ask about the cause. It simple asks you whether it's a threat to the human race. What option to this question is missing that makes the poll flawed?

[Elbethil]

It's most definetly a threat. Already we are seeing the effects. To use an example, as the oceans are warming up, we are seeing more harsh weather patterns and more destructive hurricanes. And weather doesn't have just the obvious effects that you may think of: for example, diseases like malaria have been found to be affected by climate.

[MyrddinsPrecint]

running out of gasoline is not a problem. eventually, economic costs of gas drive people to invent better ways of avoiding gas, because USING gas costs money.

ozone/acid rain etc, however, don't have a cost. there is no economic reason to stop poluting---- other than governments instituting prices.

which is why things like the Kyoto Accords are so important...

[larkmaj]

The human contribution to Global Warming could well be nothing more than an insignificant blip on a very large sine wave with a periodic amplitude measured in eons. Certainly cold and warming trends that dwarf what we are currently experiencing happened long before mankind was around, much less industrialized.

I think this is a major point that many people miss. The earth does go through periods of warming and cooling, some severe (ice ages), some not so severe. The time between these peaks seem to be relative to the severity, i.e. it changes at around the same rate. Right now the earth is in a period of warming obviously. It is believed back when explorers were searching for the northwest passage there was a minor ice age, which would agree with the period of warming we are experiencing. Man's effects on this warming is uncertain, and quite likely minute. IMO(no sources, but I've heard much of this)...

[Maester]

We are slowly killing ourselves through greed. ahh

[Feltan]

running out of gasoline is not a problem. eventually, economic costs of gas drive people to invent better ways of avoiding gas, because USING gas costs money.

ozone/acid rain etc, however, don't have a cost. there is no economic reason to stop poluting---- other than governments instituting prices.

which is why things like the Kyoto Accords are so important...

You know, I like the idea of a Kyoto Accord, but the reality was so disappointing. Much window dressing, much emotion, but the real pollution generators got essentialy a free ride, and those countries that have already tried to curb pollution got villified. Until you include the third world pollutors (namely India and China), and include them with tough standards to meet -- it is all an exercise in feel-good cheerleading.

Too bad. I could have really got behind this if it had been a real plan.

Regards,
Feltan

[Feltan]

Tha poll doesn't ask about the cause. It simple asks you whether it's a threat to the human race. What option to this question is missing that makes the poll flawed?

I was just pulling your chain. For once, I wanted to say a poll was flawed.

Regards,
Feltan

[Black Jeebus]

Consider Russia... it has to "cut back" to its 1990 levels of pollution. The collapse of the Soviet Union already did that. But it's still literally the worst polluter in the world but because they aren't at the same levels as they were near the height of the Soviet Union's pollution levels, they have those little emission shares to sell to other nations. Basically they're not cutting back on their own pollution, and they are making a profit helping other nations to not cut back on theirs...

EDIT: Also from a stand-point of the human effect on global warming, I think needlessly scaring the crap out of people when we don't know whether or not we're actually causing the problem is a bit unresponsible. Telling people they should cut back on things that are deemed harmful to the environment is a good thing, but using fear tactics to force them to is wrong. Our records concerning weather account for pretty much a negligible period of time in the grand history of the Earth.

I have to agree with the late Dr. Carl Sagan, in that the best program to garauntee the survival of the species is colonizing beyond our planet. Imagine a virus that can only infect one species. That virus' chance of survival is based entirely upon the survival of that species. Now imagine a virus that can "jump ship" to some other type of animal. That virus has just significantly increased it's chance of survival. Even aside from the danger of the Earth suffering some fatal climate change there's any number of things threatening our survival. Just one bad solar flare, and by bad I mean tremendously bad, and we're all goners. Now the chances of a solar flare that bad are pretty much negligible compared even to the chance of being hit by lightning. And once you factor in the Earth's natural radiation shield (hooray for the iron core!) we're more or less safe, but the Earth has been around for probably 4.56 billion years. Now we could be hit by one of these flares any minute, and more than likely most of us wouldn't know we were hit with the lethal doses of radiation.

All that is to say we should increase our interest in spreading out amongst the stars.

(Oh and for those of you that want to know, we get hit by solar flares regularly. Well in a cosmic sense we get hit by them regularly. In fact a lot of people believe they account for a lot of the mutations that suddenly cause that better, stronger, faster specimen every few thousands of years. Most of the time though they just don't cause that much harm to those of us dirtside.)

[Black Jeebus]

Also... it's 2006 now, and I just want to know where the hell is my flying car?! Damnit I was promised a flying car by the year 2000!

[academe]

I think this is a major point that many people miss. The earth does go through periods of warming and cooling, some severe (ice ages), some not so severe. The time between these peaks seem to be relative to the severity, i.e. it changes at around the same rate. Right now the earth is in a period of warming obviously. It is believed back when explorers were searching for the northwest passage there was a minor ice age, which would agree with the period of warming we are experiencing. Man's effects on this warming is uncertain, and quite likely minute. IMO(no sources, but I've heard much of this)...

Sources, you want sources?

Although I tend to rely on the documentary "The Day After Tomorrow" or Rush Limbaugh for my view of the human impact on global warming, some people turn to places like this:

http://www.realclimate.org/

Worth digging into for the real science side of things.

[Feltan]

Sources, you want sources?

Although I tend to rely on the documentary "The Day After Tomorrow" or Rush Limbaugh for my view of the human impact on global warming, some people turn to places like this:

http://www.realclimate.org/

Worth digging into for the real science side of things.

You have to be kidding.

That site is famous all right, but it has nothing to do with science. It is an opinion blog, an opinion of those who think a certain way. Just read their disclaimer:

Disclaimer
The contributors to this site do so in a personal capacity during their spare time and their posts do not represent the views of the organizations for which they work, nor the agencies which fund them. The contributors are solely responsible for the content of the site and receive no remuneration for their contributions.

In other words, "we are not responsible for anything posted here.....and our opinions have nothing to do with our funding...really....we promise."

Regards,
Feltan

[academe]

You have to be kidding.

That site is famous all right, but it has nothing to do with science. It is an opinion blog, an opinion of those who think a certain way.

I agree with you that it is based on their opinion. But it is opinion based on data. A big difference from saying "nothing to do with science." Our society has become a relativistic one when it comes to dealing with science. In short, if your own personal opinion, politics, or religion does not let you agree with what the science says, then call the science biased and opinionated and do your best to discredit it with pseudoscientific sounding language or deliver the talking points to the your favored vector for spreading disinformation...

Do I agree with everything on this site? No. Do I like to read it from time to time and look at the links they have to scientific data so I can learn enough about some of the issues that I don't fully understand? Yes.

But I'm capable of differentiating opinion grounded in data from opinion grounded in wishful thinking...

But that's just my opinion...and I'm sure it reflects my bias...

[Inquartata]

It is real, it is probably somewhat of a threat, AND the severity of it is probably hyped. Anytime you get a "consensus", you get groupthink. And there's likely a good deal of exaggeration going on in an attempt to frighten people and politicians into acting faster and less incrementally than is their wont.

Meanwhile, there is no "Splunge" option, so the poll is, well, we all know what it is...

[Schiavona]

Yes, the climate is changing. Where I live the growing season has become 2 weeks longer than it was 10 years ago. When I was a boy, if it reached 70 in July it was an event. Now we get 80+ in June. No complaints, just stating examples of real change.

What has really changed the face of the Earth is not so much our industry, but ourselves. 5,000 years ago there were as many people on the whole planet as are living in California today. 5,000 years is a very short time, on a planetary scale. Look into what goats have done to the planet in the last 5,000 years.

Maybe if we reduced our standard of living to that of your average herder in Ashkanistan, we might be able to reduce the negative effects humanity has on the climate.

Nah.

[MyrddinsPrecint]

You know, I like the idea of a Kyoto Accord, but the reality was so disappointing. Much window dressing, much emotion, but the real pollution generators got essentialy a free ride, and those countries that have already tried to curb pollution got villified. Until you include the third world pollutors (namely India and China), and include them with tough standards to meet -- it is all an exercise in feel-good cheerleading.

Too bad. I could have really got behind this if it had been a real plan.

Regards,
Feltan

it's a good start, though. there's an economic dissensentive to pollute. and even if polluters can buy their way out of polluting, and even if there isn't that much less pollution, it's a start at getting this kind of thing passed.

if you create a system where people have to pay to pollute, then there becomes a market for innovations to minimize pollution.

could it be better? yes.

is it a great first step? yes.

[mrbiggs]

Man's effects on this warming is uncertain, and quite likely minute.

Well, it's not 100% certain that man has caused global warming. But it would be quite a coincidence that the earth started warming at an unprecedented rate at the time of the industrial revolution. Also, we are certain that man is artificially raising greenhouse gas levels, and we think that would cause global warming. It all fits together too well to be ignored.

As to the topic, as you might have guessed, I think that anyone even slightly informed about the issue knows that it's happening. There's just too much evidence. But I do think it's overhyped. Many of the apocalyptic theories seem to be nothing more than press whoring, especially since they all disagree. Do I think that if things continue at this rate, we'll see significant climate change? Yes. But I think it's unlikely that it will be the end of civilization.


The wikipedia article has alot of statistics and doesn't seem to have much bias.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

[mrbiggs]

Oh, and I think that we need to actually enforce the emissions standards already in place. I.e., no "truck" loophole.