I hesistated to post this, since it turned out a bit longer than I thought it would... So be warned, its about 3 pages long...
Gav writes:
>I know that there a couple of guys on this board who have
>worked for NASA and sundry industries. What are your
>opnions (as insiders)? What are the opinions of others?
>Are Rutan and the like the way forward? Is Space the new
>"Indies"? Do we think that manned space flight is a good
>thing or should we just send probes?
Background: Since you wanted opinion on NASA and the
sundry industries in the space biz, let’s start with a bit
of background if you’ll indulge me?
The world space program is dominated by the US. There are
viable national space programs at around eight countries
(US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India, Japan, China, Israel),
and activities in over 100 different counties at some
level. But from a $$ perspective, around 50-60% of the
funds are spent by the US. Total world-wide space program
expenditures are around $100-130 billion per year. (Ref:
http://www.futron.com/pdf/AIA%20Spac...cil%202005.pdf,
and note the Futron data cited here does not include NASA
expenditures, nor things like GPS receivers or similar
services)
Right now there are 5 different types of space programs
around the world – Military, Scientific, Commercial,
Prestige programs and Enthusiasts. At some level there are
interactions between all types of programs, but let me
define what I mean by what’s in each one.
Military space programs – these are typically operational
infrastructure programs, providing communications,
reconnaissance, and navigation to military forces world
wide. You don’t hear much about these, and since these are
in general operational programs, they are in a phase of
very slow evolution – newer, better satellites are being
launched, but there’s not going to explosive growth or
radical changes in what people are doing in these programs.
I lump the weather satellites in this area, as it’s also a
government-funded infrastructure program. There’s maybe
$30 B a year expenditures in this, with the majority spent
by the US, and lower expenditures from Russia, Europe and
China, Japan and Israel. Some of this is lumped into the
Futron data, but I’d estimate about half isn’t.
Scientific Programs – These are typically government
financed “large science” programs, which launch satellites
to perform scientific studies, although you’ll see smaller
programs sponsored through many countries and universities
to do small specialty scientific satellites. Examples of
this include unmanned space probes, space telescopes, and
specific scientific satellites. Since these programs are
government funded (and noting almost all of the university
programs are funded by government grants), the only way
you’ll see a lot of growth in these space activities is
from a government pushing to increase funding levels in
this area. NASA is the big financier of these programs,
but ESA is almost as strong for scientific satellites, but
has not had the reputation for paying for cutting edge
science. I’d estimate maybe $5 B world wide for these.
Commercial Programs – Commercial programs are primarily
related to space communications, although there are a few
privately financed earth-observation systems (but most of
their sales go to government agencies). Total revenues
from commercial activities are now greater than NASA’s
budget, but most of the revenues do not come from building
or launching satellites, but from selling time on them or
selling the receivers and ground systems to use the
satellite communications services. Besides the well known
satellite TV and telecom, GPS-type navigation is now a
multi-billion dollar commercial market, but it uses a
military-funded system to provide its signal. Commercial
space revenues continue to grow at a very healthy rate, in
the 7% per year range. Depending upon how you count the
impact of the commercial space programs (for example, if
you include subsidiary revenues such as those of
broadcasters who rely up on satellite broadcasting,
additional enabled navigation solutions and the like, you
can get estimates of the commercial space revenues in the
$130-150 Billion dollar range by themselves. The Futron
study referenced above puts the business activities at
around $100 B using their methodology-- In comparison NASA
spends around $10-12 B per year on space activities, and
the US DoD in the $15 B range.
However, only about $3 B is spent in the launch business to
launch the satellites, and around $10 B to build
satellites. The rest is revenues from satellite services
and the sale of ground equipment like DBS TV receivers,
satellite radios and the like. I should note that
commercial space businesses while having some well
publicized failures (Iridium, Globalstar, etc.) has
attracted billions of dollars in strictly private
investment money, and there are good ways to generate LOTS
of investment capital, if you can structure a good business
case.
Prestige Programs are those done to enhance national
reputation and glory. Some folks lump these into
scientific programs, but I wanted to pull this out
separately. The largest example of this program is NASA’s
Space Shuttle and the International Space Station program.
These programs (which include substantial contributions by
NASA, ESA, Japan, and Russia among other countries) run
probably $12-15 B per year and aren’t included in the
Futron numbers, referenced above. The Shenzhou program in
China for example, is specifically a prestige program and
does not generate substantial military, scientific, or
commercial benefits. There is always an element of
scientific research in these programs, but in reality, it’s
done for prestige. We might see some growth in this area –
China’s Shenzhou program is stirring a bit of a reaction in
Japan, and slightly in the US. But the funding for this is
ultimately out of discretionary funding by national
governments, so I don’t see explosive growth in this area.
You’ll see neat stuff happening – but it’s going to be
reprogramming of existing budget levels most likely.
Lastly are the enthusiasts. I’d guess total expenditures
by the space enthusiasts to be around $50 M per year, of
which the largest single part is a single $15-20 M launch
of a private astronaut on a Russian Soyuz rocket. The
other expenditures by Rutan and elsewhere only run maybe
$10-20 M in aggregate (SpaceShipOne for example, cost
around $25-30 M in total, over a couple of years). And I
must note that while SS1 made it to Mach 3.5, you need to
get to Mach 25 to get to orbit. There’s a long way to go
for most of these folks to get to a product that going to
serve other than the enthusiast market, with very few
exceptions (one being SpaceX, being financed by Musk).
Most of the ventures in this area have been failures in the
long run – Beale Aerospace, Roton, etc. But I think you’re
going to see some growth in this area, and if things like
the Rocket Racing circuit and Space X actually make money
and some of the other activities pan out, you could see
these revenues doubling in a couple of years. That’s
