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Major party lineup for 2008 Hi!
In 2008, we will again have the situation where the incumbent must step down. After Clinton, VP Gore got nominated, but I doubt that the present VP will redo that. He comes from a very small state - Wyoming, IIRC, which is solidly GOP anyway. Furthermore, several heart operations would probably stop him from being nominated.
Sec-of-State Rice has said that she will not run, and that is probably a good choice. She may outsmart her opponents while on debate team, out-connect them as a Washington power, but in the soliditude of the voting booth there is no way for her to win over the racist voter. My guess is that if she faced a WASP male as Dem nominee, then that WASP would only need to keep mum on all race issues, and still win a significant number of otherwise GOP votes, and still more previous GOP voters would stay home. To make matters worse, her singleness will not be a boon among the "family values" crowd. Just too many "first walls" to break through.
Which GOP senators would be able to take the nomination? DeLay?
A big plus for anyone wishing to get a major-party nomination is to come from a big state that is a toss-up in the electoral colledge, or slightly leaning against the party - but not so much that it would be impossible to carry your own home state. Arnold fits this bill, but is a nonstarter due to the constitution. OTOH, Jeb Bush fits it nicely, and should have a lot of good connections.
The Dems have also a lack of clear-cut candidates who could both easily take the nomination, and have a good chance of actually winning the electoral colledge. Any winner must win all of the states that Kerry won, and then some. Since the GOP has a lock on so many small states, the Dems must take all those that lean to them, and then most of the battleground states. This seems to mean that any Dem winner must be someone who can be accepted in many places, with low negative ratings. That should be a big hurdle to the Dems from the solidly blue states in the Northeast and Pacific coast.
Where does this leave us? Who do you think will win the 2008 major party nominations?
Have a nice time!
Peter Gustafsson
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Senior Member
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Agree on Rice: it's going to be a long time before there's a black, female president of the US (probably not in my lifetime. I'll be happy to be shown wrong). Besides, I think her ambition is best served by being the "expert" rather than the president. Agree on Cheney too. He can't get insurance - he shouldn't be President!
DeLay is a congressman (House of Representatives), not a Senator. In any case: I doubt he could be nominated. Partisan politics is happy to make use of junkyard dogs, and give them lots of power, but they don't get nominated to high office like the Presidency. where there's the illusion (fostered with great care) that the President is A Nice Guy, and not a meanspirited creep or ego freak. That's why Gingrich isn't President. "In theory, theory and practice are the same, but in practice, theory and practice are different."
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Bill Frist or Jeb Bush for the Republican Nomination. I would love to have Condi as president, but she has to want it. Besides Sec of State is quite a demanding job; it is almost if not more demanding than the presidency.
Hillary Clinton for the Dems (Too bad she wont have a chance...) I think. Therefore...I am not a tar heel.
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Curmudgeon Emeritus
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It's been many years since an ex-Senator won a Presidential race, and much longer since a serving Senator did so. Everyone should hope therefore that the "other side" nominates a Senator, and that their own side does not.
I suspect we'll see Giuliani and McCain run on the Republican side, and Kerry again on the Democrat side, and possibly Hillary. No idea who'll get the nominations.
So, what would happen if it were Rice against Obama?
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 Originally Posted by Inquartata It's been many years since an ex-Senator won a Presidential race, and much longer since a serving Senator did so. Everyone should hope therefore that the "other side" nominates a Senator, and that their own side does not.
I suspect we'll see Giuliani and McCain run on the Republican side, and Kerry again on the Democrat side, and possibly Hillary. No idea who'll get the nominations.
So, what would happen if it were Rice against Obama? Then it would be Obama hands down. But that's not going to happen in '08.
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My prediction:
Republicans will nominate some big-government hack.
Democrats will nominate nearly identical big-government hack.
Two sides will argue over minor technicalities.
Someone will win--it doesn't matter who.
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Prototoast, that is so spooky! It's like you have a crystal ball or something! "What did I tell you about being stupid? You don't get a birthday this year."
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Originally Posted by prototoast My prediction:
Republicans will nominate some big-government hack.
Democrats will nominate nearly identical big-government hack.
Two sides will argue over minor technicalities.
Someone will win--it doesn't matter who. Listen, I hold the copyright on cynicism around here. Get your own gig! 
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Sorry, Inq, but copyright is INTELLECTUAL property. "What did I tell you about being stupid? You don't get a birthday this year."
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That's ok, possession in 9/10ths of the law.
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Curmudgeon Emeritus
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Originally Posted by Have At You Sorry, Inq, but copyright is INTELLECTUAL property. Owww! Owww!
Anyway---I have an easement.
Last edited by Inquartata; 06-05-2005 at 05:07 PM.
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Originally Posted by Have At You Sorry, Inq, but copyright is INTELLECTUAL property. Doesn't matter. It will soon be available for free downloading at whichever Napster Clone site is currently popular.
When, if ever, does anyone think Powell will throw his hat in the ring? I was thinking perhaps this election, but it's too soon. Nothing is more frightening than ignorance in action.
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Curmudgeon Emeritus
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I know that many people believe he's bound to run someday, but I don't think he has ambitions in that direction. One of the few guys I believe when they say that...
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From what I've heard, Powell is a very political guy who would be very happy running for President, but the missus would be mighty displeased were he to do so. She doesn't want that life. So he's not going to. "What did I tell you about being stupid? You don't get a birthday this year."
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Originally Posted by Inquartata Listen, I hold the copyright on cynicism around here. Get your own gig! You can't hold the copyright on truth!
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Originally Posted by jeff Agree on Rice: it's going to be a long time before there's a black, female president of the US (probably not in my lifetime. I'll be happy to be shown wrong). Besides, I think her ambition is best served by being the "expert" rather than the president. Condi Rice is not a black woman. She is a beautiful and intelligent white woman who was dipped in caramel.
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If Powell was going to run, it would have been 1996. Maybe 2000. By now, having been replaced as SecState, I'm pretty sure it won't happen.
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