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edew · 03-01-2002, 05:00 PM

Western Regionals are this Saturday (tomorrow). After that, it's the NCAA Championships weekend during March Madness. Who's in?

Top 5 team finishes:

1. Penn State
2. (and very close) Notre Dame
3. St Johns
4. Stanford
5. Ohio State

None of the other colleges are even coming close, apparently.

Individuals?

MF:
1. Nontapat Panchan (PSU)
2. Steve Gerberman (Stanford)
3. Derek Snyder (ND)
4. Ozren Debic (ND)

ME:
1. Adam Wiercioch (PSU)
2. Doron Levit (SJU)
3. Jan Vivani (ND)
4. Soren Thompson (Princeton)

MS:
1. Ivan Lee (SJU)
2. Alex Weber (PSU)
3. Jason Rogers (OSU)
4. Andrej Bednarski (ND)

WF:
1. Iris Zimmermann (Stanford)
2. Andrea Ament (ND)
3. Marta Grochal (PSU)
4. Hannah Thompson (OSU)

WE:
1. Stephanie Eim (PSU)
2. Arlene Stevens (SJU)
3. Emese Takacs (SJU)
4. Jessica Burke (PSU)

WS:
1. Sada Jacobson (Yale)
2. Louise Bond-Williams (OSU)
3. Marisa Mustilli (SJU)
4. Austin O'Neill (PSU)

HilandDoug · 03-02-2002, 08:14 AM

Eric, what about Crochmalski (sp?), I think from Penn State? Or is it ND? He's pretty good at Men's saber. Saw him fence last weekend against my alma matter, Michigan State University, when I was their substitute coach.

Eileen · 03-02-2002, 08:21 AM

I see a few names of folks I know, should be interesting to see how it all turns out.

escrime chick · 03-03-2002, 10:54 AM

How about Gelman(WS - St. John's)? Based on her IFA results, I'd say she'll definitely be a factor for NCAA's.

solomon hun · 03-03-2002, 05:24 PM

usually i just read this site without posting, but after reading those ncaa predictions, i felt i needed to throw in my two cents. i fence foil, so obviously that's where most of my expertise is. the predictions edew made are reasonable (ish), but seem based on silly preexisting rankings. there's no way derek snyder and steve gerberman are gonna finish ahead of jon tiomkin, he's fresh off a 16 in coruna, and he's too strong to be beaten by any of those kids. besides that, both those fencers can be beaten by kevin eriksen, joe fisher, gabe sinkin, jeremy sinkin, yale cohen, or jeff breen just to name a few. in fact, jeff beat jon tiomkin three times in a row to win the ifas earlier today. honestly, i don't see either snyder or gerberman in the top five at all. like i said, my knowledge tends to be restricted only to foil, but i will say that paolo roselli has consistenly placed top five in the last three ncaas. he may be out of shape, but he hates losing, and he's a crazy bastard. before he was at columbia he almost got in a fist fight with pat durkan over the bronze medal bout three two years ago. i think the team predictions are off too. stanford is god awful, no way they finish top five. their men's sabre and epee are incredibly weak, and they dont even have a full women's squad. ohio state certainly has strong individuals, but there are noticable gaps in their squads, like men's foil and women's epee. i think fourth and fifth place are more likely to be taken by upenn or columbia, both of whom have far more rounded teams. that's just my opinion though, i could be wrong.

veeco · 03-04-2002, 12:15 PM

Kelsey from Air Force is also a strong contender in ME. Just saw him at the Western Regionals, and he did not loose one bout. Most of his victories were in the 5-0 to 5-2 range.

MHS Fencer · 03-04-2002, 01:03 PM

Well, I don't know much about college fencing, but Arpad Horvath is going to win the Men's Epee indiviudal title. He's a freshman at St. Johns, but manages to be their first fencer - that should tell you something.

edew · 03-04-2002, 02:19 PM

Experience is key to epee. Horvath may have some very good skills, no doubt, but experience will win out in the long run. As for Kelsey, there isn't any real strong epeeists in the Western Region. He's good, but his national (USFA) results have not been as strong or consistent as some others.

Horvath may feel the pressure, being that it's his first year. First year fencers usually get quite a bit of nervousness, unless they've been to many tougher tournaments.

Julia Gelman is also young. I placed O'Neill from PSU in the top-4 because for some reason, Penn State has a knack for pulling out the big wins at NCAA. Their fencers don't stick with the sport much after they graduate, but boy, they do seem to do real well while they're in the program. It's an intangible that can't be dismissed. However, Sada Jacobson and Louise Bond-Williams both have top international experience and results. Those are more tangible reasons why they will do well enough to make top 4. At least that's my guess.

servdragoon · 03-04-2002, 03:09 PM

you think Ivan Lee can pull off a win against the olympic bronze medalist Weber? Ivan is good, but i dont know if he is even better than Germany's worst olympic starter.

The third spot for MS could very easily be Colin Parker, why Rogers over him?

edew · 03-04-2002, 03:11 PM

That's why we have horse races. Put your opinions on the line right here.

veeco · 03-04-2002, 03:29 PM

[quote]Originally posted by servdragoon:
you think Ivan Lee can pull off a win against the olympic bronze medalist Weber? Ivan is good, but i dont know if he is even better than Germany's worst olympic starter.

The third spot for MS could very easily be Colin Parker, why Rogers over him?<hr></blockquote>

Huh? When did Weber get a Bronze medal? Certainly not at the last Olympics, where it was Wiradech Kothny who did.

Lee will certainly not have an easy time against Weber, but Weber is no Kothny and Lee can take him for sure.

veeco · 03-04-2002, 03:35 PM

[quote]Originally posted by edew:
As for Kelsey, there isn't any real strong epeeists in the Western Region. He's good, but his national (USFA) results have not been as strong or consistent as some others.

<hr></blockquote>
Kelsey made top 12 in Palm Springs (in front of Viviani)
and he made top 8 in South Bend. Not strong and not consistent?

Soren Thompson on the other hand has not competed in any NAC this year. And Horvath did not make it into the top 16 at any NAC this year.

Granted, Kelsey may not make it to the top 4, but there's no reason for dismissing him like that. He could make it to the top 4.

[ 03-04-2002: Message edited by: veeco ]

escrime chick · 03-04-2002, 03:36 PM

Eric, to clarify: I'm not arguing w/ your other choices, I'm just saying I'd pick Gelman over Mustilli based on what I saw this weekend... both Gelman and fellow SJU freshman Christina Crane came out ahead of Mustilli in the finals. The young'uns can surprise you sometimes (Being a freshman myself, I have to put that plug in)

And I'd have to agree w/ solomon that for MF you can't count out Breen, Cohen, or Tiomkin...

MHS Fencer · 03-04-2002, 05:00 PM

Horvath's got the experience - second at the Junior World Championships a couple years back, just came in top 32 at the Budapest World Cup (Senior) - he's a top level competitor.

solomon hun · 03-04-2002, 05:24 PM

if i'm not mistaken, weber won his bronze in the team event in atlanta, which was a few years back. the dude is old, at least compared to the college kids these days, and by most standards past his prime. he has some pretty good skills, but i don't think he gives a flying you know what about winning. in south bend i saw him get his bum handed to him by tim hagamen, who, while he is pretty darn good, is only a senior in high school and hasn't made any olympic teams that i'm aware of. weber is nasty, but ivan consistently busts his *** training and has a desire to win that he just exudes when he fences, that frankly weber just doesn't have. and if that's not proof enough, just look at how all the other recent german superstars fared upon arriving on u.s. soil. felix reichling managed to hold on to something, but in the end was a shadow of his former self, florian got mediocre really quick, and daniel senft is fat and slow these days. i just don't think weber wants it. but once again, that's just my opinion, i could be wrong.

edew · 03-05-2002, 06:16 AM

You're mistaken. Weber won the bronze as the anchor fencer in the 2000 Olympics men's team sabre.

I am taking back my claim that Stanford will take 4th. They're sending only 6 or 7 fencers to NCAA. Steve Gerberman is the sole men's foilist, David LaValle is the sole men's sabrist, Graham Allen and Ken Jung are the two men's epeeists, and then one in women's sabre, one in women's epee. Iris is qualifying as an open entry (because she was in some international event during the regionals weekend). Given the low number participating, it would be quite difficult to do better than 7th.

I'll put Princeton or Yale in 4th.

solomon hun · 03-05-2002, 08:43 AM

princeton or yale? i seriously doubt that. cellini and senft only fenced a few key ivy matches so that yale would have a run at the ivy championship, which they lost to columbia. i doubt they even have enough bouts to qualify for regionals. even with senft and cellini in, columbia foil still spanked em 9-0. their sabre is nothing and while the epee is solid enough, it's not great either. it's true that their women's team is very good, but i don't think it can carry them. princeton is similar. their women's team is very good, although they are relatively weak in women's sabre. the men's team is weak to mediocre across the board, except for soren and maybe their second epeeist. i would predict upenn as fourth, and most likely columbia as fifth. upenn has a weak sabre squad, but has a solid enough epee squad and a very very strong men's foil team. columbia also has an incredibly strong men's foil team, as well as a strong men's sabre team, and a mediocre epee team that will win at least a few. women's epee is similar, and women's foil is very strong. the only squad columbia lacks is a women's sabre team. on another note, joe fisher got kicked off the sju team for not attending ifas. that means no ncaas for him, and it'll probably cost sju 15-20 bouts, and most likely any shot at the title. that's the word on the street kids, you heard it here first.

edew · 03-05-2002, 09:36 AM

Actually, I heard about the Joe Fisher status before I started the thread. That's why I put SJU third.

UPenn does have a pretty solid team. I don't know if the women's part is strong enough, though. I guess we're all forgetting Ohio State in all this. Maybe Stanford's weak Regionals showing will put Ohio State into the top-4.

How about:

1. PSU
2. ND
3. SJU
4. OSU
5. UPenn
6. Columbia
7. Princeton
8. Brown
9. Stanford

escrime chick · 03-05-2002, 04:36 PM

Brown? no way, man. They've got a major weak link called men's foil (especially since Kriedman got himself injured and gave up his pathetic attempt to fence w/ the opposite hand...) They were bottom of the bottom for MF @ IFA's, that's right, I mean Vassar beat them!!

So unless the other squads (and it certainly won't be WF) pull some serious extra weight, I'd be pretty surprised to see Brown finish that strongly.

solomon hun · 03-05-2002, 04:39 PM

hmmm, that sounds pretty reasonable. dunno about osu, i haven't actually seen them in action first hand...i also would put yale above brown, but who knows...one last thing, apparently yale cohen will be in italy for a world cup during ncaa qualifiers and hence will not be at ncaas. andy radu should do a good job in his place, but none the less, those are bigger shoes to fill than he has feet for. should throw in an interesting twist to men's foil though...