269

[Army Fencer]

With the remaining swing states, I've been able to create a number of scenarios where there is exactly 269 electoral votes for both candidates, and no majority. How scary is that?

The House is controlled by Republicans, so it's not an issues, but it would be a historic event, nonetheless.

Revelant links:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html...ALCULATOR.html

http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/data/c...ion/article02/

[Epictetus]

This is interesting. I've been reading about this lately, because, as you point out, it's not that unlikely. While it is true that Bush would easily win a Bush/Kerry matchup in the house, some electors have been making rumblings that they might vote for a third candidate in this situation.

This would lead to a three way race in the house. If the third was a centrist, say, John McCain, many democrats would throw their votes behind him, resoning that he would be better than Bush. Republicans would probably be split. McCain would then have the uniwue opportunity to reshape the Republican party pretty much as he chooses.

So yeah, life could get very interesting in a few months...

[S. Hunter]

It would be neat if they voted for maybe... The Libertarian candidate! I can't actually see it, but if Bush lost because even one elector picked Badnarik, or Kerry lost because of one, then the Libertarian party would get more publicity than ever, and quite possibly would be able to gain much ground. Then again, its pretty unlikely. (Unless in New Mexico, where esimates put Badnarik between 4 and 5 percent, one elector could feel obligated to give him a vote)

[Army Fencer]

Hmm... that is an interesting proposion. I'll have to look back at the Constitution to see if voting for a third candidate is legal.

Any lawyers out there?

[noodle]

www.electoral-vote.com

[KShan5[PrFC]]

Yes because the 12th ammendment states, IIRC that you vote for the top 3 vote getters, so whomever is third can also be voted on. Found it:

"then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. " doesn't mean tjhough that you have to take the top 3.

Election of 1824 provides good background for this, 5 candidates, John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, John C. Calhoun, William Crawford and Herny Clay. Not one candidate recieved the necessary # of electoral votes and it went to the House of Reps. In the end Adams won, Corrupt Bargain etc.

[S. Hunter]

The problem with my scenario of the third highest ranking votere is that the electors themselves are probably Democrat checked, Republican approved, and they would probably just flip a coin between the two. The most interresting situation would have to be a Badanrik one though - He is polling at consistant 5% in new mexico, which would justify giving him the votes if were an exact tie. No other third parties are close to that in any state, or atleast any contested state.

[ThornOfTheBlood]

90% of the common public doesn't know what libertarianism is, and quite frankly, probably doesn't care, that's why the big dogs are the only ones being fed(ie. Republican and Democrat) because people know what they are, and the candidates get to blather on TV all the time.

[S. Hunter]

But in an exact tie, whoever gets the third number of votes might make a very important difference.

[mrbiggs]

In case of a tie, or none get the required votes, I beleive it goes to the HoR, then to the Senate if the HoR ties.

If the Senate ties, Dick Cheney casts the deciding vote.

(I learned all this 4 years ago in Social Studies class, so I'm not 100% positive it's true.)

[S. Hunter]

"The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; A quorum for this Purpose shall consist of a Member or Members from two thirds of the States, and a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice President."

BTW: When they say votes, they mean electoral votes here. I took it slightly out of context.

[mrbiggs]

Which is what I said, except they spelled "choosing" incorrectly.

Who else thinks we should go through the Declaration of Independance with a red Sharpie marker and FIX it?

[Army Fencer]

Who else thinks we should go through the Declaration of Independance with a red Sharpie marker and FIX it?

Is there some reason why you want rejoin England?

[mrbiggs]

Is there some reason why you want rejoin England?

What? No! I just want to take out the mispellings, the extremely long sentences, and write in the actual s's rather than f's without cross marks.

[Inquartata]

And I suppose you'd rather have Hamlet saying "Should I off myself? I'm just asking."

Revisionist.

[Army Fencer]

Current map: www.yahoo.com

Ohio (20) and Colorado (9) with Bush's current 237 make 266. With Alaska's 3 (almost a sure thing for the Republicans), that makes exactly 269. I doubt New Mexico is going Republican.

Ladies and gents, this one is going to the HOUSE!

[Soldier]

Looking at Yahoo! right now (about eight minutes later), it stands at 246/207. Alaska will be closing in about half an hour, and looks solidly Bush (60/37). Ohio and New Mexico would give him 271. Yahoo shows them at 51/48 and 51/47, respectively, for Bush.

Git out of my House!

[Army Fencer]

Yeah, and even if the Democrats do get NM, the electoral vote will be split in Maine (4-1), bringing it up to 270.

[Soldier]

New Mexico and Ohio are still leaning Bush-wise, from what I'm seeing. It also looks like Iowa is leaning back toward Bush. I'm not too worried about it right now.