I think it was a "push". Both men performed well---emphasis on "performed", which, alas, is what politicians do these days. Neither scored any big points, neither stumbled badly.
I didn't hear "flip flop" or "W stands for wrong". That was welcome. In fact, not too much reliance on prepared phrases by either side, though Bush kept harping on "sending mixed signals" and Kerry kept mentioning John F, Kennedy at every opportunity. Neither transgressed the time constraints. Neither got really combative.
I thought that Bush had the edge on humanity and humor---his was the one jest, and it was he who talked about the daughters and so forth; Kerry was constrained to reply in kind or come off as ungracious. He seemed more relaxed. Kerry had the clear edge in dignity and statesmanlike demeanor, albeit he still looked a bit stiff and Gore-like. The only laugh I got out of him was when he said "I've never wavered; I've always been consistent."

He was also the more versatile; Bush basically seemed to have a few main themes and stuck to them, even at the cost of repeating himself. Bush also made minor points by refusing to rise to the moderator's bait about Kerry questioning his truthfulness---Bush just shrugged it off and said it didn't bother him, which made him seem the bigger man. OTOH in some of the reaction shots early on he looked a bit vexed and waspish while Kerry was speaking, while Kerry maintained his aplomb and even smiled at some of Bush's criticisms. And some of Bush's answers weren't well balanced; he ended some too abruptly or with inelegant cadences in his voice.
One small stylistic quibble: I wish Kerry would stop flicking his tongue out to lick his lips. I found it distracting.
All things considered, a draw for me. I doubt it will change anything. And that's what Kerry needed: to hold his own on the security and defense issues. I expect he'll do better in the debate on economic issues.