Div I Nationals and O-team selections

[edew]

So, who are your guesses for the "fourth man" in the three team weapons that the US will send to Athens this Summer?

The US has qualified all three men's teams to the Olympics. In all cases, the top three are pretty well determined. Who will fight for the fourth spot?

Let's take a look:

Men's Epee: Seth Kelsey, Cody Mattern and Soren Thompson are pretty well locked in for the three spots. The next person up is Jan Viviani. From all aspects, if Jan doesn't even attend the Div I Nationals, he's pretty much guaranteed the fourth spot. Here's why. He's more than 1000 points ahead of Jon Normile, the fifth spot person. If Jon wins Div I Nationals, he will earn 1000 points. But he'll also lose 850 because they're taking the best two of three. So Jon will net only 150. David Rosenberg, who's 6th, can earn about 680 by winning the event. But he's 1400 points behind Viviani.

All the top-3 benefitted from doing exceptionally well in one or two international events.

Men's Foil: Kellner, Tiomkin and Dupree are pretty much in. The next severa: McClain, Cohen, Nazarov, Sinkin (Gabe), Miloslavsky, and several more are all within very little points of each other. More importantly, with the drop of one event, the best the following fencers can do are:

Name/Current Points/Max Possible Points/Minimum finish to do better
McClain/1385/1700/7th to 1390
Cohen/1233/1700/9th to 1235
Nazarov/1230/1695/8th to 1380
Sinkin, G/1219/1690/10th to 1220
Miloslavsky/1033/1525/15th to 1036
Kershaw/1006/1506/15th to 1011
Chang, T/853/1505/17th to 855
Snyder/846/1500/17th to 850
Meyers/791/1502/27th to792
Lombardo/698/1350/17th to 700
Getz/688/1344/18th to 689
Wood/685/1685/32nd to 960
Woodhouse/678/1342/19th to 682
... (below: not a chance)

Of these, Wood has the best chance to really jump the standings. His 685 is from missing earning points from the Palm Springs NAC. If one were to look at the one best result so far, the ranking would be:
McClain: 700
Cohen: 700
Nazarov: 695
Sinkin: 690
Wood: 685

These five are the ones with the bes shot. I'll put my money on McClain. The question is whether the top-3 might drop a bout to help one or the other. If so, Wood would be the most negatively affected. The other four are all in NY area, with friendl(ier|y) relations to the top three.

Men's Saber: Lee, Smart, Rogers and Morehouse are pretty much in. The only way they can't make the team is if they all become incapitated. If the top-4 don't attend Div I Nationals, there's nothing anyone below them can do to surpass them. All subsequent world cup events will be used to jockey for Athens positions.

The game is in Men's Foil.

[fencerontheline]

I hope Sean can do it. He's probably the most experienced of all of the candidates for the fourth spot, and this could very well be his last chance to make Olympics.