I have a friend who, when he loses to an opponent that he had judged to be little or no threat says, "I counted those chickens before they hatched." I should pay more attention to his little sayings.
Lately, I have been working on a couple of things - scouting my opponents (more than usual) and having a plan. The two go hand in hand. Having a plan happens at multiple levels - in general, what am I going to do with an opponent based on my scouting, and specifically, when I step off the on-guard line, what am I going to do to get that touche. Having a plan is key to having confidence on the piste.
At the tournament on Saturday I was focusing heavily on scouting. I even had one opponent say to me, "I know you were watching me fence." As I stepped up against each opponent I had a general plan of attack. It worked well. I finished the pools 3-2, seeding me 10th out of 29. (So far, so good.) I was not as good at having a specific plan for each touche. Sometimes I had one, sometimes I did not. I need to work on that.
My DE was against a young woman who I had fenced in my pool. I had ascertained that she was a defensive fencer with a good counter-attack. In my pool bout with her I handled this well by making sure my attacks engaged her blade and I beat her 5-1. In fact, most of the fencers in my pool beat her and she was seeded 20th.
Unfortunately (for me) she came to the DE with a completely different game. She was aggressive and her attacks were mid-to-lowline. When I tried to take her blade with a counter-six, I would catch it with the foible which was totally ineffective. (Our height difference accentuated this.) She beat me 15-9. Then she beat the next guy 15-6. Then she beat the next guy 15-9. Then she beat the NEXT guy 15-14! She ended up taking 2nd place.
Whuups!
She was obviously better than I had given her credit. Could I have beaten her in the DE? Possibly, if I had re-evaluated what was happening sooner and adapted to her new game. I always tell people not to fence the bout before they get on the piste. This works both ways. Don't over OR underestimate your opponent before the bout starts. I can't say I won't make this mistake again, but I sure will remember what happened this time when I think to myself, "This should be an easy kill."