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Fencing will look like…
Timing: More Vezzali than Bau.
Study modern Italians like Vezzali, Vanni, Cassara, and Sanzo. The Italians are using astute tempo to trend ahead of their opponents in 15 touch bouts. Many fencers go touch-by-touch, but tempo is a more subtle approach that allows fencers to tend to hit more than their opponent. Competitors will need a more "executive view" of their bouts to be able to discern these subtleties. For a tempo discussion, there is David Littell's "Hungarian Methodology." It generally talks about tempo attacks on footwork and handwork.
In training, tempo will have to show up in practice bouting, and become a concrete tactical method. Too often, it appears as an after-the-fact thing rather than a primary cause.
Bladework: More Alexander Romankov than Alexander Koch; more Sergei Golubitsky than Peter Joppich.
Generally, foil will need to retrench with classical hand technique. However, classical assumptions will still be useless to sport fencing at all but the most introductory level. The light weapons, and the strength and expertise of high-level fencers, will still allow phrases to conclude very quickly. For a currently active fencer who is transitioning to strong prise de fers and point attacks, check out Andre Wessels; he is point-based, but still unconventional, and seems to come from a flicky background.
Distance: No change.
Competitive distance is already quite long, because marching attacks are dangerous. Marches aren't going away, but their nature is changing — long distance is less an aspect of defense, and more an aspect of offense to keep opponents in front of the tip. Experiment with very long distance as seen in the '88 Olympics Women's Team Finals, or note how Sanzo takes his guard several feet behind the line (2003 La Coruna World Cup).
Change in distance also doesn't change — fencers will have to be adroit in stopping and starting, and will have to be able to stop their marches immediately, when necessary. This was always so.
Attack distance will always vary by fencer. Gruchala has long, unfolding/flowering attacks, while Vezzali has short, clipped tight attacks.
When will the changes start?
Video of high-level competitions in 2003 feature somewhat halting, unfinished-looking fencing. This is foil fencing in transition. The bleeding-edge fencers are already moving away from marching flicks towards tempo-based attacks with direct hits. The Germans are prospering in the current environment, but important changes are manifesting with the Italian men's and women's teams. The French and Russian methods will re-assert, and possibly Hungarian tempo will become devastating.
The end
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