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Shape of foil fencing in the future: Overview
For all intents and purposes, it's safe to assume that foil fencing will be all tip. Since casual flicking will be difficult, an open shoulder is less of a liability, and fencers won't have to move their arms out of line as often to make wide, high blocks.
When the back or shoulder is hit, it will be hit from a highly elevated hand with the tip traveling down (extension from above), rather than with a flick or a whip. An elevated hand can also be converted in the last moment to a downward attack on the inside line, which looks quite wicked (see Simone Vanni trying a few in the 2003 World Championship Men's Final).
Fencers will have to keep their opponents in front of their tip, where the tip can threaten the opponent front-on. Opponents will try to enjamb footwork, stop-hit, attack in time, or dive inside the tip to be safe, so, ergo, the opponent must be kept further away, where fencer is less susceptible to surprise changes in distance.
With the opponent kept further away, fencers will have to hit from longer distance. Lunges will be longer, which indicates that fencers will have to commit to lunges earlier in the action. This, in turn, will give opponents more time to find parries. The importance of counter-parry ripostes increases, as does a fast backwards recovery. Balance and composure are the name of the game.
To get within striking range, fencers can use rehearsed combinations or setups (see David Littell's "Lessons with Victor" monograph).
All of this indicates a return to the rational, plausible bladework we all learned during beginner drills and then "gave up" during bouting. Tempo and bladework will be more human-friendly — that is, less a series of tough-to-call accidents when two fencers' tactics collide, and more of a coherent back-and-forth conversation.
Despite all the foregoing, if epee is any indicator, some flicking will remain — perhaps to the front or top of the leading shoulder. For most of us, these will be planned flicks to near target, though experienced fencers will still be able to make reflexive flick ripostes to deep back. Flicks will still be around in some form, but the wind up for flicks will be gone. Fencers joining the sport today will compete in a world where flicks are often more trouble than they're worth, and so the flick won't be as integral to the styles of the next generation.
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